Isolation and Suffering: What to Expect from Putin and Russia under the Sanctions 

The world has never seen that sanctions against an aggressor stop a war. This won't happen now, too. 

First, because Putin is prepared for pressure from the West (although he did not expect that broad and unanimous support for Ukraine). Second, it seems that Putin has lost contact with reality and still does not realize that he's unable to conquest Ukraine the way he wanted.

Nevertheless, Western pressure is also needed. 

Sanctions are a long game. They must destroy Russia. Not only economically.

The key is that sanctions should also target ordinary Russian citizens. Those should suffer. Painfully.

Don't be surprised by the line above, which goes contrary to the "sanctions matrix" of the democratic world. But Putin has already destroyed the world it used to be. 

It should be stressed: this is not bloodthirsty. Nor a desire for revenge. This is the only survival strategy both for Ukraine and for the West. And the faster western friends understand this (including Germany, which is again lagging behind!) – the better. And we must admit that this process of understanding is going faster than one could have imagined a couple of days ago.

Not everything is perfect with Western support. In particular, the EU – contrary to the statements – has not unblocked Russia's disconnection from SWIFT. But even adopted sanctions open up a new reality for the aggressor state.

This article describes the world that Russia found itself in, including key risks and scenarios.

All against Russia

While the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Territorial Defense Groups are doing real feats every hour defending Ukraine from the aggressor, another war is going on. It is a diplomatic war.

And in this war, Russia had got a stunning defeat.

Once Putin announced the recognition of the so-called "L/DPR", Russian diplomacy had got an order to get more states recognizing it as well. On the first day, Russian propaganda outlets even named the list of states that have allegedly recognized the "independence of Donbas" at the same time as Russia: Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Syria.

But none of them did; only Syria said it would consider such an option.

State Duma Speaker Volodin even flew to Cuba and Nicaragua and held talks in Havana before the missile strikes on Ukraine – and still to no avail. Cuba has only agreed to issue a ridiculous anti-American statement demanding an end to NATO's pressure on "peaceful Russia", but without any mention of "Donbas independence". Even Belarus Lukashenko, strongly dependent on Putin, did not do so.

Since February 24, the world reaction turned into a catastrophe for the Kremlin.

Putin's actions have turned even his most loyal allies in Europe away from him, including those fed by Russian money.

For example, pro-Russian Czech President Zeman, known for his scandalous statements justifying Russia's aggression in Crimea and Donbas, condemned the Russian attack for the first time. Eric Zemmour, Putin's most radical fan of French presidential candidates, has called for an "unconditional condemnation" of Russia's actions. Former French PM Francois Fillon, who got highly-paid positions at two Russian companies last year (seen as a sign of gratitude for past cooperation), decided to resign. 

Moreover, German Ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schroder called Russia's aggression unjustified and called on Putin to withdraw his troops as soon as possible, explaining that otherwise, Russia-Europe relations would be severed.

He turned out to be correct.

Not only Europe but the whole world is outraged with Putin's actions. And very soon, it is likely to create problems for Russia in the UN.

The weapons coming

There is a joke that a banker is a person who offers you an umbrella when the weather is good and takes it away when it rains all day. That is, banks prefer to lend money to those who reach and are reluctant to lend to those in trouble.

With security support, the situation is somewhat similar.

Many noted that the flow of weapons to Ukraine from the US, UK and other Allies had almost stopped a week before Russia's invasion, along with reports in Western capitals that Putin had decided to attack. Also, in the first two days of hostilities, the partners refrained from making concrete promises to resume supplies.

Several EuroPravda sources indicated that the West expected Kyiv's defence to fall swiftly under Russian attack. The fact that the Armed Forces managed to stop the advance of the Russian army surprised many. 

And although Western analysts are still not sure of Ukraine's military victory, the British Defense Ministry, for example, has started to show some optimism in its forecasts.

That led to the resume of ammunition supplies from several countries, and the new supply chains have started. On Saturday evening Germany (that refused to provide any weapon for Ukraine for years) took a play too, donating half a thousand Stinger missiles, badly needed by Kyiv. Then comes a $600 million supply from the United States; some game-changing weapons cold appear in that pack.

Why did this pause happen?

One should recall Afghanistan to get the reason. The afghani story has become a painful defeat for the West, as the local army, in which the US and Allies had invested a lot of time and money, has simply disintegrated with the departure of NATO troops and handed over the country to the Taliban almost without resistance.

Ukraine has become anti-Afghan for the West,

with the Ukrainian Army resisting beyond expectations and demonstrating feat every day.

We began the article by saying that sanctions cannot stop the war. But the military defeat of the enemy can stop it; western weapons and equipment is badly needed for this. 

This also entails risks.

But first, let's analyze the new reality for the aggressor state.

Not that strong sanctions 

On Saturday evening, every Ukrainian and Western media have broadcasted the news that the G7 has agreed to ban Russia from SWIFT.

But this turned out to be untrue.

SWIFT is a worldwide inter-bank communication system for international payments. There's one case in history when a whole country was disconnected from SWIFT: in 2012, sanctions were imposed on Iran, demanding that country suspends its nuclear program. This has halved Iran oil exports; it was restored only in 2016, after Tehran made concessions on its nuclear program and SWIFT lifted its sanctions. 

Since 2014, there have been calls to ban Russia from SWIFT too, but a dialogue among Western countries began only after the 2022 invasion, yet with no success.

Instead, the joint decision of the EU and the G7 states that "certain Russian banks will be removed from the SWIFT system."

Let's be honest: punishing several banks is not equal to "disconnecting Russia".

For example, Gazprom can open an account in any bank not on the list to continue accepting payments.

The list of banks to be punished has not yet been made public. In a separate statement, the German government said the measure would apply to "Russian banks that are already sanctioned by the international community and, where necessary, additional Russian banks." 

This wording means that the list of "banned" banks can be expanded and theoretically cover Russia's entire banking system. But an obstacle to this has a name: it is Germany.

Officially, Berlin is against such a step, explaining that this will hit "poor grandmothers from Russia", i.e. ordinary Russians will suffer. But this is not a genuine reason.

The truth is that if Russia is punished, European consumers and businesses will also suffer. Russia supplies gas to the EU – how do we pay for it, asks Berlin? Also, many Western companies work in Russia-2022, in contrast to Iran-2012, from Siemens to Mercedes, have production facilities in Russia. How to make a profit from there?

Meanwhile, the new package of sanctions against Russia is still significant. 

At least two of its elements will be painful for the Kremlin.

The first is the restriction of the assets of the Russian central bank. We are still waiting for a legal decision on this issue, but if it comes to freezing the entire Russian state reserve in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen, it could lead to the collapse of the ruble. The second is the G7's promise to start hunting for the assets of Russian oligarchs. But here, too, we must wait for the implementation.

Altogether with other measures, this will make life in the aggressor country not the same as before.

Worse than SWIFT

There were dramatic changes on Saturday and Sunday night that are not formally part of the "third package of sanctions but are no weaker. And more importantly, they are beating not only the Russian state but also Russian citizens.

One should realize the deep ground of public support for Putin Russia.

The Russian dictatorship regime is very much integrated into the world. Wide circles of Russia's business and social elite are used to rest in European resorts, buy villas in Spain or Bulgaria, yachts in the Netherlands or Croatia.

The West actively promoted this.

Visa procedures for Russians have long been the easiest on the continent. While for Ukrainians getting Schengen visa (before visa liberalization) was often a "Russian roulette" where you could be denied simply because a Belgian or Italian visa officer was in a bad mood that day - for Russians, this problem did not exist. The embassies mentioned above would automatically issue multi-year Schengen visas to every Russian applicant; the refusal rate was tenths of a per cent.

Some of these Russian citizens might even understand that Putin is a traitor and a war criminal. But he remained a good president for them, providing prosperity and comfort. And let America be outraged by the fact that in Russia, there is no freedom of speech, guarantees of human rights, etc. This was the position of the absolute majority. After the overwhelming support by the Russians for the theft of Crimea and the occupation of part of Ukrainian territory in 2014, there is no doubt about it.

For those Russians who did not gain petrodollars and corrupt rents, living in poverty somewhere in the Russian province, Putin's government has had another carrot: the Kremlin fed them a sense of pride for "Greater Russia." Putin presented himself as a powerful world leader, respected in every corner of the world. 

We should not underestimate the importance of this Russian pride.

For years, these two components, coupled with the state propaganda machine, have provided Putin with steady support (declining but still high).

This leads us to the point which started this article when we insisted that ordinary Russians (including those "Russian grandmothers" mentioned by the German Foreign Minister) must suffer personally and significantly. It is the only way to show Russian society that Putin leads them in the wrong direction. 

And that's why blocking SWIFT, which hasn't been done yet, is so important.

However, some other necessary steps have already been taken.

Since February 2022, the Russians have lost the reasons to enjoy Western life and feel proud of their state.

One cannot underestimate the effect of closing Europe on Russian citizens. The EU has already announced that it will suspend the visa facilitation agreement, and several EU countries (Latvia, Czechia) have stopped issuing visas to Russians at all.

Even those already having Schengen visas will be limited in travels to Europe. The EU has closed its skies to planes from Russia. Even getting to Kaliningrad from Moscow, you'll have to fly by sea, making a giant hook. And this is a very painful symbolic "kick" for Russia.

This decision won't be cheap for the EU, too. But not stopping Russia is even more expensive.

On the verge of changing the world

Russia has gone from a state claiming the world leadership to an outcast.

On February 24, Putin became a sort of "Kim Jong Un on steroids", a leper leader of a nuclear state.

In a few days, Russia was deprived of all the attributes giving reasons to its citizens to be proud. 

A few years ago, Olympic anti-doping sanctions became a pinful slap in the face for Russia. But now they seem a trifle. Russia is being deprived of the right to host all sporting events, even those planned for the coming months, like the Champions League final in May and the World Chess Championship in the summer. 

European clubs refuse to advertise Gazprom and other Russian giants (this has been an important part of Russia's "soft power"). Russian oligarchs, who own football clubs like Chelsea, have to give up their property.

All this is an incredible humiliation for Russia and Putin.

Ahead is another battle, no way smaller. It is a battle for the UN.

The European Pravda has already reported that Ukraine is initiating Russia's expulsion from the UN Security Council, where Moscow got a seat in 1992 in violation of the organization's rules and statutes.

Until recently, it seemed that this was a task simply impossible to accomplish because no one wanted to stir up the traditions of this organization. 

But now UN finds itself on the verge of collapse. 

The fact that a permanent member of the UN Security Council carries out open, absolutely groundless, carefully prepared aggression against a neighbouring state destroys the essence of the organization. The words "absolutely groundless" are highlighted for a reason. In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, Moscow managed to "sell lies" and convince other capitals that there were at least some reasons for the attack. In Ukraine, there is not even a shadow of a reason for the invasion.

All this creates a high chance that the UN will repeat the fate of its predecessor, the League of Nations, which existed before World War II and was liquidated because it was unable to prevent the war or punish the aggressor.

Now the UN has a difficult choice – either to become a body that has no influence and to fade into oblivion or to stop its old song and deprive Moscow of the right to veto. 

This will be one more brick, if not a cornerstone, in destroying the Russian narrative that is a "world power" and a superstate.

* * * * *

Despite the incredible pressure on Russia, there are high risks that we yet need to learn to manage.

Putin is outraged by what is happening. He is outraged by the humiliation of the West, outraged by the sanctions, and, above all, outraged that Ukraine has not yet been defeated.

Therefore, there is a severe danger that we, Ukraine and the world, will face the mad actions of the "dog driven into a corner". And it's even more dangerous given that this "dog" is a crazy dictator with a nuclear weapon.

No one knows what Putin is capable of. 

Given this, the statements of the official Kyiv about its "readiness to negotiate with Russia" are probably correct, as this can pause crazy developments. The most important is that these negotiations should be without concessions from Ukraine.

Meanwhile, hopefully, Putin's inner circle will understand that living under such sanctions and in such isolation is a very gloomy option and that it is much better to remove the dictator than to tolerate him. 

If that happens, it will be an ideal moment for negotiations, when Kyiv will be able to demand and set conditions while all the world is standing by Ukraine. 

It is, of course, an ideal and not guaranteed scenario. However, it is possible.

Sergiy Sydorenko,

editor of the European Pravda