As Russia Is Raising Stakes in Negotiations, the EU Decision Is Badly Needed

Ukrainian journalists are very much used to Russian cynicism and propaganda, as we used to observe it for years. But this week, even we are shocked with it. 

On Wednesday afternoon, Russian air forces have again bombed Mariupol, a large city in South-Eastern Ukraine.  The bomb blasted next to the maternity hospital, 3 persons killed, 17 wounded. Footages and photos of pregnant women at these wreckages spread worldwide, shocking millions of people. 

Hundreds of western politicians hurried up to condemn atrocities, but definitely thought in the back of their mind, "this can't be true; they should have missed the real target". 

The next day, Russian foreign minister Lavrov came to the press and ruined that hope of those who had it. He said that Russian air forces have deliberately targeted the hospital, allegedly "occupied by radicals". Minister adds that "emotional" TV reports from Mariupol does not present Russian position and therefore does not touch him.

It sounds absolutely bizarre. 

But I'm afraid we're not on the very top of the cynicism yet.

During 8 years of war with Russia, Ukrainians have learned: this is the core of Putin's negotiation tactics. He used to escalate to the highest possible degree, creating considerable problems for his counterparts. And then, at international negotiations, he agrees to de-escalate partially, demanding some major concession in return. And it often works.

This time negotiations have already started, 3 rounds by now with no result.

Kremlin has made its demands public more than a week ago. He requires Ukraine to give up joining NATO; to recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea; to exclude Donbas from Ukraine; to "demilitarize Ukraine". 

Every single demand from this list is not just tough. It goes against Ukrainian sovereignty. 

To push Ukraine for concessions, Kremlin used his favourite escalation tactics through war against civilians. 

In Mariupol, a hospital story is just one episode. The city of 400 thousand is sieged and constantly bombed; Russia denies creating humanitarian corridors for civilians. In Kharkiv, 1.4 mln city in Eastern Ukraine, civilian quarters are being hit by indiscriminate multiple rocket launcher Grad from the first day of the invasion. In the northern city of Chernihiv, the downtown is destroyed by jet attacks. The list is much, much longer.

Needless to say, this became a tragedy for Ukrainians. Millions had to leave their towns. Many have no home to return. Death toll counts in thousands, and most are civilians.

One may think that ordinary people are ready to give up to save a life. But we aren't. 

The opinion poll held last week confirmed "NO" to Russian demands. 

It asked Ukrainians to imagine that implementing one Russian requirement "guarantees the immediate end of war" and asks whether the person is "willing to accept this demand, even if reluctantly". Even in these imaginary conditions, only 15% of Ukrainians accept losing part of Donbas, only 17% are ready to give up Crimea, only 30% agrees to give up NATO membership. 79%, 75%, and 56% are firmly against, despite Russian bombs. 

The ground for this public resistance is clear. The war with Russia has been about the European future or Ukraine since 2014. At the same time, new Putin demands and actions are tailored to make Ukraine "another Russia". 

This won't fly. And that is one more thing that Putin did not get about Ukraine.

No public support for these concessions means negotiations won't work. New rounds can buy some time or may trade some minor humanitarian agreements, not the overall deal. 

Tackling the war needs a new approach. 

Just a military solution won't work either. Putin still believes that Ukraine is in his sphere of influence. Restoring the sovereignty of Ukraine by force would only create a pause until Russia attacks again.

But there is an option. 

Given that Russia wants to stop Ukraine's move to the West – we should make this move irreversible. For that, the EU can grant Ukraine candidate status, launching the membership procedure once the military offensive is over. This will trigger tough reforms of the country, with no membership until all conditions are met. 

This would be a bold step, but the EU appeared not ready. The proposal of Eastern European states did not find support at the EU Summit. Some European government states yet did not realize what's going on in our continent. 

It hangs a situation with no viable way out.

But one day or another, the bloodiest war at a continent in 75 years should be over. It requires mature decisions by Europe. Better it happens sooner than later.

Sergiy Sydorenko,

Editor of the European Pravda

Kyiv 

First published in Danish, at Berlingske