Rally in Brussels on March 24, the day of the EU summit

Diplomacy loves silence.

That which is spoken in interstate debates must remain closed to the public. Diplomats must keep secrets.

These are the rules of "peacetime" diplomacy, during a war everything works a little differently. Or completely differently. And when the future of a state is at stake, the rules do not apply at all.

This was probably the logic of official Kyiv when the president's office was preparing Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech for the European Council, ie the EU summit. In his speech, the President identified Ukraine’s "friends", its "almost friends", as well as skeptical states, whose position hinders Ukraine's future EU membership.

Earlier, the "rule of silence" was violated by Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. In an interview with the Ukrainian Pravda, he said that he had similarly unblocked "SWIFT sanctions" by naming those parties who blocked their approval. This infuriated them, but the sanctions were confirmed the same day.

But that discussion took place in a closed session. The President’s Office decided to go further by publishing Zelensky's speech from the summit.

The list reflects the data of the closed discussions for Ukraine’s application for accession, which took place in early March (at a meeting in Brussels, at the ambassadorial level) and during the informal EU summit (in Versailles on March 10-11). On some of the skeptical states, Kyiv later clarified their position in bilateral talks, and this seems to be reflected in the list published by the president.

This is the most complete list of supporters and "skeptics" of Ukraine joining the EU.

This list will be very useful to our diaspora to understand which countries need to be pressured immediately.

After all, the Ukrainian issue will soon be on the agenda again. The European Union must make a political decision to grant Ukraine candidate status and, possibly, to start membership talks.

European Pravda has already described in detail the procedure that awaits us (see the article "Ukraine's Road to Candidacy: Details of the Commission Plan to Move Ukraine Closer to the EU."

But back to Zelensky's "lists".

In this article, based on own sources, European Pravda will "translate" from the diplomatic language to plain language the lists published by the president.

In his address to the European Council, Volodymyr Zelensky named 10 states that do not hide their pro-Ukrainian position in the discussions on Ukraine's accession to the EU.

Nine of them are predictable.

These are Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Croatia, which have officially signed declarations pledging to support Ukraine's EU membership. Additionally the Czech Republic intended to sign a similar pledge but that the Russian invasion moved this out of agenda.

The tenth country on the "frient list" is much more interesting. Zelensky added Italy to this list. According to European Pravda sources, during the discussions within the EU, Italy initially had doubts in supporting this. However, after Zelensky's speech in the Italian parliament, Rome has publicly supported Ukraine's membership in the EU. "Thank you for your support!" Zelensky addressed Draga during the summit.

In the next group, based on the President’s speech, we can identify nine countries.

Addressing them, Zelensky also used positive but more vague language.

According to European Pravda, the countries included in this group are not clear supporters of the accelerated procedure of Ukraine's accession to the EU. However, according to signals from their capitals and the results of the talks, Ukrainian diplomats are sure that they will vote "yes" during the consideration of the Ukrainian application.

The biggest positive surprise is that this group includes France.

"Emmanuel, I really believe that you are with us," Zelensky told Macron.

Regarding Greece, Finland, Malta, Denmark and Cyprus, the President used short expression like "I believe / I know that you are with us / we will succeed". By now, Ukraine has already got positive signals from these countries, although they were hesitant at first.

Also, Zelensky said he "believes in support of Luxembourg because we understand each other". Luxembourg does not have a categorical position, but it does not plan to block our movement to the EU either.

Then comes Romania. It "knows what dignity is, so it will be with us at the crucial moment," said President. The country's position is special because it is critical for Romanians to open the door to membership not only for Ukraine but also for Moldova. Currently, the EU is considering our applications separately. If Ukraine will stay alone with its membership bid, Romania will have to make a choice

On Sweden, the president spoke twisty: "yellow and blue should always be together" (referring to similar colors of Ukrainian and Swedish flags). Zelensky did not claim that the Swedes do already support Ukraine of its path to the EU, and this is no accident. According to EuroPravda sources, Stockholm has a "pro-Ukrainian" image, but in close-door discussions it is an opponent of the accelerated procedure. However, in the final vote it will probably vote for Ukraine.

Six more states, according to the words Zelensky, are problematic, but not "critical".

Zelensky expressed confidence that he would be able to convince them. Here are quotes about them, explaining their position in closed discussions.

"Portugal - well, practically…" - said Zelensky, meaning that no support is secured.

Ironically, Portugal, home to many Ukrainian migrants, has been skeptical about voting for Ukraine. This is difficult for Ukrainians living there to understand – but they can push local government to change it.

The Netherlands is another problem country.

They vote "for the rational, so we will find a common solution," Zelensky said. Indeed, Kyiv believes that it will be able to change the position of the Netherland government, which has already taken the first steps towards Kyiv. But prime-minister Mark Rutte is holding back because he does not know how voters will react to supporting Ukraine.

Although, with the news about atrocities of Russian soldiers terrifying the whole of Europe, Dutch support (from both society and the government) is growing stronger.

Austria is somewhat similar to the Netherlands.

With them, Zelensky relies on rational arguments. "Being with Ukrainians is a new opportunity for you. I am sure of it," he told the Austrian prime minister.

"Spain - we will find a common language. Belgium - we will find arguments."

We submitted these two countries together because they have a similar situation - they are not skeptics and look at the actions of "big players", so they will probably vote for us if France and Germany side with Ukraine in the final vote. Although it is still worth working with Spain separately.

"Ireland - well, practically...", - said president, referring to the country, which is not a member of NATO and does not know firsthand about some of Zelensky's demands given at NATO's summit on Thursday (read his speech in English: We Never Thought the NATO is so Afraid of Russia). But with the bombs falling on Mariupol, the Irish will rather stick to support Ukraine.

Now the most interesting: the opponents.

This list is the shortest, it has only two countries.

Volodymyr Zelensky called Hungary the first of them.

In recent weeks, the Hungarian government has made several anti-Ukrainian, and unacceptable statements. This is a long-standing policy of the Orban government. As a result, a quarter of the Hungarian ruling party's voters blame Kyiv for the war (seemingly nonsense, but this is the reality...).

Hungary is also opposed to new sanctions against Russia. The conflict has reached the point that Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk publicly asked what Orban wanted for his support of Russia - cheap gas or Transcarpathia?

Volodymyr Zelensky did not refer to these episodes but chose another approach.

He addressed Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the summit, reminding him of the history of Hungary under Hitler's Germany.

"Hungary... You must decide for yourself who you are. I have visited Budapest, on your embankment. I saw the memorial, Shoes on the Danube ... Listen, Victor, do you know what's going on in Mariupol? Your embankment, look at those shoes, and you will see how mass murders can be repeated," Zelensky said with emotion.

"Shoes on the Danube" is a memorial on the banks of the Danube, at the site of the Nazi massacre of Hungarian Jews.

Before the murder, they were forced to take off their shoes, which were then sold or taken away by the Nazis.

"Russia is doing it today. The same shoes, the same people. Adults and children. Thousands of them. And they are gone.

Are you hesitant to impose sanctions or not?

Are you hesitant to not send a weapon or not?

Are you hesitating to trade with Russia or not? This is not a time to hesitate. It's time to decide. We believe in your people," Zelensky told Orban harshly. I would like to hear his answer, but it was impossible. The regulations did not provide for questions and answers during the inclusion of the Ukrainian president.

Read in detail about the position of Hungary, in which parliamentary elections will be held in a week, in the article "For Ukraine, but aside: how Hungary maneuvers between sanctions and friendship with Russia."

Finally, and most importantly.

Zelensky ended his speech by mentioning the state that is currently a key opponent of the country's integration into the EU - Germany.

"We believe that Germany will also be with us at the crucial moment. Glory to Ukraine!" Said the President, addressing Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Yes, without blaming anyone but Orban, Zelensky addressed all EU countries.

Why was Berlin last on the list, not Budapest? For all Orban's scandal, sources say he is generally ready to say yes to Ukraine receiving candidate status. According to the EP, Orban has not yet directly opposed Ukraine's accession to the European Union at EU meetings.

Instead, he is a staunch opponent of harsher punishment on Russia (although there is no guarantee that he will not decide to block Ukraine's move to the EU if Putin asks for it).

But Germany is a problem.

Numerous European Truth sources say since the beginning of March, that Berlin is the biggest opponent of Ukraine's quick accession to the EU. And if you convince Berlin, all the other problem states will eventually agree.

The efforts of the Ukrainian diaspora and friends of Ukraine should be focused on this.

Convince Germany, this requires work from you, and together we will succeed.

Author: Sergey Sidorenko,

editor of the European Pravda