There is a month left before the meeting of the European Council, i.e. the EU summit on June 23-24, where the leaders of the EU member states will consider Ukraine's application to join the European Union.

The crucial point is whether Ukraine will receive EU candidate status or not.

After all, according to the procedure, this should be a unanimous decision of all the Member States, adopted after consultation with the European Parliament and the European Commission.

The EU Parliament passed a resolution to grant Ukraine EU candidate status on March 1 right after Ukraine's application on February 28. The absolute majority voted in favor - 637 out of 705.

The European Commission is currently preparing its opinion based on the Ukrainian government's answers to the EC questionnaire received in April and early May.

However, this does not guarantee further "green light" to the Ukrainian application.

Reasons For Ukraine

The European Commission is to deliver its opinion no later than mid-June, and hopefully, it will be positive. The EC should recommend granting Ukraine candidate status and possibly will set the preconditions for starting EU accession talks.

However, it is possible that under the informal influence of some member states, the European Commission will make a less positive decision and propose something else. For example, the status of "potential candidate" and/or a set of prerequisites for full candidate status. The position of EU member states is decisive.

Several states, especially Western European ones, are now hesitant and will eventually agree to the decision taken by Berlin and Paris.

It seems that the position of France and Germany will be decisive.

It might seem that so much has changed with the beginning of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine but the inertia of thought in these two capitals remains.

Granting Ukraine EU candidate status would be the most crucial political step, in addition to weapons and sanctions. That would make the Kremlin dwarf think about the meaning of continuing aggression. He will keep attacking Ukraine as long as he believes that Ukraine has no European future.

In addition to strategic and military considerations, Ukraine has some benefits.

First, public opinion in the EU is now clearly on Ukraine's side.

In Germany, in particular, support for Ukraine's EU membership appears to be higher among the Social Democrat electorate (79%), Chancellor Scholz's party, than among the opposition Christian Democrats (71%). There is absolute support among the electorate of all German parliamentary parties, except for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for its pro-Putin views. 59% oppose Ukraine's EU membership.

In France, all important social and political groups support Ukraine's accession to the EU, including the previously skeptical working class, youth, and even the Le Pen electorate.

The only exception is the electorate of even more far-right Éric Zemmour

Second, it is necessary to understand and explain that 

this is not about membership now, but only about the candidate's status for membership.

The EU does not and cannot have any "fast track" or special procedure for Ukraine. It can only try to move quickly according to the usual procedure, which Ukraine is already doing.

It means that first, a country receives candidate status and then a decision to start negotiations on 35 chapters. It includes new legislation adapted to full compliance with the EU. After that follows the actual signing, ratification, and entry into force of the Treaty of Accession.

In the optimistic scenario, based on the experience of the countries that joined the EU in recent decades, Ukraine will need at least three years to hold negotiations. And the whole way will take at least five or even seven years. Most likely, Ukraine will become a member of the EU after the end of Macron's presidency.

Ukraine and Other Candidates

Ukraine objectively deserves candidate status because it meets the basic criteria. It does need any privileges or "discounts" given the war.

Ukraine's European integration did not start with the application for EU membership in February 2022. It began more than 20 years ago. Ukraine started to adapt its legislation under the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. Then it continued with the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Action Plan under the European Neighborhood Policy.

In particular, its European integration accelerated with the fulfillment of the criteria for the visa-free regime and the Association Agreement signed in 2014. Much has been done over the years to meet the Copenhagen criteria for EU membership.

Ukraine does not fully meet all criteria, but it is not yet joining the EU. The country only expects candidate status.

Even in the most sensitive areas, such as the rule of law and fighting corruption, there are undeniable achievements in creating and launching anti-corruption institutions and judicial reform.

Let us compare the conclusions of the European Commission on the applications of other countries to join the EU.

Even if we do not consider the 1999 decision to grant candidate status to Turkey, where the death penalty remained at the time, we can look at the relevant conclusions and reports of the European Commission on the Western Balkans. North Macedonia (since 2005), Montenegro (2010), Serbia (2012), and Albania (2014) have the candidate status, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo remain so-called "potential candidates" - in fact, those who do not meet even the basic criteria.

The last point is not surprising. Kosovo is not recognized at all by many EU member states. Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to the 2019 European Commission, has a Constitution that does not meet European standards and an incapable central government - which answered the European Commission questionnaire for 14 months. They could not provide an internally agreed answer to several questions.

Therefore, to compare Ukraine with Bosnia or Kosovo is simply incorrect.

Ukraine's compliance with the Copenhagen criteria is comparable to those in the Western Balkans that already have candidate status. This is the conclusion of the Brussels Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS).

The Ukrainian government responded to the EU questionnaire within one month. The stability of many Ukrainian institutions operating during the large-scale war came as a surprise to many in Europe.

Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU is unprecedentedly deep. It provides an even greater degree of legislative alignment and integration into the EU common market than the corresponding Stabilization and Association Agreements in the Western Balkans.

Fourth, the decision to grant candidate status awaits Ukrainian society.

According to sociology, 91% of Ukrainians support Ukraine's accession to the EU. This is clear because Ukrainians are now defending common European values against Putin's aggression.

Ukraine's EU integration unites the government, the opposition, and civil society.

Ukrainians do not see any other alternatives: either the EU says "yes" or "no."

The EU can and should formulate the conditions and requirements for compliance with the membership criteria after granting candidate status - before and during the accession negotiations.

Fifth, the EU's candidacy and future accession process is the best framework for rebuilding the country after the war.

EU investment in this rebuilding will be most efficient based on European standards and the participation of the EU, including European business.

Reasons against Ukraine

The two crucial reasons that we hear in the context of granting Ukraine candidate status are the Balkans and EU reforms.

They say that Ukraine's candidacy is unfair to the Western Balkans, which have long received candidate status, but their EU accession talks have stalled.

Ukraine should not suffer because North Macedonia was initially hampered by Greece (and eventually had to change its name from "Macedonia" to "North Macedonia") and is now blocked by Bulgaria (which demands to deny a separate Macedonian national identity and agree that North Macedonia and Bulgaria are "one people").

As for the need for EU reform, it is necessary to understand what exactly it means and whether it contradicts Ukraine's candidate status.

For example, from 2013 to 2020, the EU had one more member than it does now after Brexit.

It does not matter if there are 27 or 37 members. It is substantial that the EU decisions cannot be blocked by one member, like Hungary in the oil embargo case.

That is why Germany and France seek to move to a decision-making process in the EU Council on the principle of qualified majority voting, not consensus.

Also, Germany and France do not want to create a bureaucracy by expanding the composition of the European Commission when each member state has the right to delegate one member.

Such reforms are undeniably in Ukraine's interest.

But that is no reason to decline candidate status now.

If Ukraine joins the EU before the decision-making reform, the vote of Ukraine in the EU Council may count by a qualified majority, but Ukraine will refrain from imposing a single veto. Michael Emerson of CEPS promotes similar creative ideas about gradual integration.

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In conclusion, Ukraine has enough reasons for the candidacy and reasons against potential reservations.

The Ukrainian president, government officials, deputies, diplomats, and public activists in Ukraine and the diaspora are doing great. But the voices of Germany and France are very much needed now.

Ukraine needs not only Ukrainians to talk about its EU candidacy.

Author: Dmytro Shulga,

Director of the European Programme, International Renaissance Foundation

The article was published on Facebook's account of the author and republished with permission.