The European Commission is expected to deliver its opinion on Ukraine's bid for EU candidate status to the member states in 10 days.

This recommendation should be adopted in mid-June. The Commission's conclusion will form the basis for a political decision at the EU summit on 23-24 June.

European politicians cannot agree on what the documents should include by now.

Unfortunately, those who block Ukraine's path to democracy and thus harm Europe's future remain in the EU.

Ukraine's Path to Membership

First of all, Ukraine's membership in the EU is not on the agenda yet, neither now nor in a year or two.

It is not legally possible. Ukraine cannot skip any of the remaining steps to EU accession, but it can accelerate it. The pace of reforms depends solely on Ukraine itself.

The path is as follows:

(1) obtain candidate status;

(2) start formal negotiations on an agreement on Ukraine's accession to the European Union;

(3) conclude these negotiations, alternately closing each of the more than 30 negotiating chapters;

(4) reach an EU political decision on the signing of the agreement;

(5) ratify the agreement in Ukraine and all EU member states.

The longest stage is the third one.

Each of the chapters can be closed only after the implementation of the necessary reforms that bring Ukrainian law in line with European law. The sooner you complete the reforms, the sooner you complete the negotiations.

This process will take years. Ukraine is preparing for a marathon that has never taken less than a decade for any new EU member.

You need to get candidate status first to start this path.

Sources say that the decision will not necessarily be positive.

"Potential candidate" - Punishment for Ukraine

As previously believed, the European Commission, if it follows its own rules, has no alternative but a positive decision on Ukraine. It fully meets the Copenhagen criteria for candidate countries.

Candidates are required to be stable democracies. For many years, free elections and the democratic transfer of power have taken place in Ukraine. Attempts to persuade the state to authoritarianism have provoked protests.

Candidate states must respect values ​​such as dignity and freedom. After the Revolution of Dignity, this is beyond doubt for Ukraine. Freedom is Ukraine's religion! Candidates must respect equality and human rights, together with the rights of minorities - Ukraine is in a better position than some EU members. Including legislative guarantees and prides in the center of the capital.

The only area with the most claims is the rule of law. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian judiciary confidently overcomes the minimum threshold for a candidate.

All candidate countries of the Western Balkans, and most of the countries that joined the EU in 2004 and later, had significantly more problems when they obtained candidate status.

A country can become a member state without fulfilling all technical criteria. The crucial point in this regard is political will.

Several influential member states are persuading Brussels to say no to Ukraine. They would like to disguise this "no" as a "potential candidate."

Previously, the EU gave a "potential candidate" when a state violated the criteria so much that it was not possible to grant candidate status. It was politically incorrect to say "no."

Only two countries have this status.

The first one is the partially recognized Kosovo. Its independence deny several EU states. Also, Kosovo is not even a member of the UN! The EU granted them a potential candidate status with no demand to legalize their independence in the entire world.

The second "potential candidate" is Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a constitutional system imposed by the Dayton Accords. It ended the war but turned BiH into a failed state. No one still knows how to get out of this impasse.

It would be absolutely unacceptable to equate Ukraine with a stable democracy that impresses the world with the functionality of the state in war times. But this decision looks currently highly likely. 

What Are the Options?

Sources say that France, the Netherlands, and Austria, in particular, insist on such an idea. Spain doubts but is not an active lobbyist against candidate status.

Germany, which lost its role as Europe's leader after Merkel's resignation, has not yet decided. The Greens are for candidate status, and the SPD with Chancellor Scholz oppose.

Opponents motivate it differently. The most important is that Western politicians do not believe in the sincerity of Ukraine's European aspirations.

Therefore, they came up with the idea to set a list of conditions that Kyiv must meet before obtaining candidate status. Unfortunately, the Western partners do not understand that this veiled "no" will hit the European aspirations of Ukrainians. It will increase disbelief in the EU's readiness to integrate Ukraine at least in the future.

We should admit that the EU states do have some grounds for skepticism.

They are well aware of some controversial restrictions on rights during wartime. For instance, restrictions on freedom of speech and oppositional TV channels. They are not sure whether democratic rules will return after martial law.

Ukraine's task is to convince the EU that it will definitely remain a democracy. Ukrainians have repeatedly proved that they will not allow anything else.

Over 200 organizations and think tanks signed the unprecedented appeal to the EU. They explain in detail that such a mistake will cost the European Union dearly.

Official Kyiv also understands the dangerous consequences of the EU's refusal and is trying to convince the West.

Meanwhile, we admit that Kyiv should take steps towards candidate status.

War is not the best time for reforms. However, Ukraine needs to return to them and convince Western friends of its intention to join the EU.

Some steps it can take right now.

For example, to complete the election of the anti-corruption special prosecutor, which is now artificially blocked. To resume judicial reform or ratify the Istanbul Convention.

The upcoming weeks can determine the history of Ukraine and influence the future of the entire continent.

Everyone in Ukraine and the European Union should understand this.

Written by Sergiy Sydorenko

Editor of European Pravda