Security Guarantees on the Way to NATO: What Ukraine Can Count On

Ukraine and international experts will look for optimal security guarantees.

A special Group on International Security Guarantees for Ukraine, co-chaired by Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andrii Yermak, and ex-Secretary General of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, will work on this project.

On July 1, the Group on International Security Guarantees for Ukraine on July 1 held its first meeting, following which the co-chairs held a press conference. EuroPravda also managed to talk to Rasmussen separately to understand his vision of the optimal security model for Ukraine.

No NATO Alternatives

Security guarantees for Ukraine were first discussed at the end of March following the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Istanbul.

At that time, just over a month after the full-scale war, Kyiv was ready to give up its plans to join NATO.

They offered some countries (not only Western countries but also the Russian Federation and China) to give Ukraine security guarantees. Without their permission, Ukraine could not even conduct military exercises.

However, regaining control over Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy, along with the discovery of mass war crimes committed by Russians, forced the Ukrainian authorities to adjust their position.

Nobody thought anymore of including the Russian Federation in the list of security guarantors. But the main thing is the system of security guarantees for Ukraine was considered an alternative to NATO membership for a long time. It seemed like Ukraine had to give up the NATO idea completely.

The Ukrainian government rhetoric also confirmed that. They were way too critical of the Alliance and its assistance in the war with Russia.

We are now safe to say such rhetoric has come to an end.

Andrii Yermak confirmed this in his recent speech at the NATO summit: "Ukraine will never depart from that path of full NATO membership."

Andrii Yermak and Anders Fogh Rasmussen were unanimous at the briefing on July 1. "The security guarantees in no way mean giving up the aspirations to become a NATO member," said Rasmussen.

He adds the security guarantees should not contain any restrictions for Ukraine regarding the size of its armed forces.

However, Rasmussen immediately adds: we cannot talk about Ukraine joining NATO soon.

Between the EU and Asia

However, the most crucial question remains: what security guarantees for Ukraine can be in a situation where none of the potential guarantors agree to promise guarantees comparable to NATO Article 5.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen admits: "Ukraine will not get the guarantees similar to recently granted to Sweden and Finland by Great Britain. As a reminder, these guarantees will be valid until the full accession of both countries to the Alliance. They will be replaced after by the already mentioned Article 5.

Currently, experts are considering all available security models, primarily provided to Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan).

"Also, we are considering security guarantee schemes that existed in the past. For example, in Belgium, whose security was guaranteed by several countries, this model operated for 75 years (the London Agreement of 1839, which was in force until WWI). None of these models fully suits Ukraine, but certain elements may be useful," the former NATO Secretary-General adds.

Another potential security model is security guarantees within the European Union.

"Indeed, the EU has an option that guarantees its members support in the event of aggression. However, it is difficult to say how exactly this mechanism works. We have to study it carefully, and in addition, consider the possibility of extending these guarantees not only to members but also to EU candidates," explains Rasmussen.

He does not rule out the possibility that one of the leading Western countries, such as the USA or the UK, will agree to provide additional guarantees to Kyiv: "The security model for Ukraine may be multi-level. A multilateral agreement, which will be signed by some countries that have already indicated their willingness, can supplement one or more bilateral agreements with countries ready to provide a higher level of guarantees."

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Even though the expert group has just begun its work, Andriy Yermak promises the first recommendations will be prepared in July.

So finally, EuroPravda asked Rasmussen: if we imagine a security scale according to which NATO membership will have the highest 10-point level, then what level of security can the system of security guarantees provide to Ukraine?

"I don't think I can estimate that. It still needs a long analysis. However, our goal is to do everything possible to get as close as possible to the top ten," concluded Rassmussen.

Written by Yurii Panchenko

European Pravda editor