Ukraine, which is waging a heroic war against the aggressor, is also achieving tangible and perceivable results on the diplomatic front. The joint efforts of diplomats, state representatives, and non-governmental players secure international support for Ukraine.

But one foreign policy sector has wholly failed - Ukraine's policy towards Belarus. Ukraine is in touch neither with the self-proclaimed government nor with the anti-Lukashenka opposition.

Meanwhile, thanks to the newly created Belarus "government in exile," the window of opportunities has opened up. It lets Ukraine fundamentally change the situation.

What is the Belarusian government in exile?

On Tuesday, August 9, the anniversary of the nationwide wave of protests in Belarus in 2020-2021, Belarusian oppositionists who fled the regime organized the "New Belarus" in Vilnius. Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya announced a creation of a government in exile - the Belarusian Democratic Government.

So far, we know only four members of this government. They are responsible for the "transit of power," law and order, defense, and international relations of Belarus.

Such "alternative state bodies" function quite standardly in world practice.

Even Ukraine has been using such a tool since 2014. After the annexation of Crimea, Kyiv announced that the Prosecutor's Office of Crimea, the representation of the president in Crimea, etc., would continue to work outside the occupied territory. These bodies in exile helped Kyiv develop a strategy for Crimea and documented the occupiers' crimes.

The activities of the Belarusian "transitional cabinet" are yet to come. We will still have to answer whether it has become effective. However, regardless of this, it gives Ukraine an opportunity to break out of the current matrix of relations with Belarus. Unfortunately, it is closer to Russia than to such EU countries as Poland or Lithuania.

Ukraine as Russia

Kyiv sees Alexander Lukashenka as "the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus." Two years ago, with a big delay and after fair criticism, Ukraine joined the EU states in this matter. It recognized the scandalous elections of August 2020 were rigged, which led to mass protests, arrests, torture of thousands of people, and several deaths.

Later, the EU and Ukraine diverged on the Belarusian issue.

In 2020-2021, Ukraine joined some EU sanctions, but not all of them. In particular, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately made a decision not to impose sanctions against Lukashenka personally.

Kyiv set an acceptable line for the mad dictator not to let him get closer to security cooperation with Russia on the border, such as giving the Russians the right to allow their spies into Ukraine.

This logic was valid until February 24, 2022, when the south of Belarus turned into a large military base for Russia. However, Ukraine has not yet joined the sanctions against Lukashenka.

While the leaders of the democratic world, from Merkel to Biden, held personal meetings with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and invited her to the European Parliament, Ukraine flatly refused.

Attempts by Tsikhanouskaya's team to visit Kyiv have been declined since 2020. Zelensky and Kuleba also refused to meet with her during their visits to Vilnius, where the opposition leader resides.

Kyiv's main claim was her unclear position on Russia, as well as her contradictory statements on Crimea.

After fleeing to Vilnius, Tsikhanouskaya began to make amends slowly.

In spring 2021, she dotted the is and crossed the ts regarding Crimea. But Ukraine still didn't want to meet with her. Moreover, it refused to recognize her status as the opposition leader.

Ukraine faced a paradoxical situation.

All of Europe recognizes that Tsikhanouskaya represents the people of Belarus. European leaders or top diplomats hold meetings with her.

Among the European countries, only a few avoided her: pro-Russian Serbia, Bosnia, several dwarf states led by "perpetually neutral" Vatican, Ukraine, and, of course, Russia.

Why is this bad?

Belarusians themselves ask Sviatlana many questions. Recently, they have accused her of not sharing the brand with other opposition representatives outside her close circle.

But even for skeptical Belarusians, she remains a symbol of the opposition. Because they do not have anyone else, she is the only representative of Belarus with social legitimacy and international recognition.

Therefore, the vast majority of Belarusians, who are against Lukashenka, PAINFULLY perceive the ignoring of Tsikhanouskaya by Ukraine. They see this policy directed against the entire opposition.

As a consequence, Belarusians tend to stop being pro-Ukrainian.

It looks like, despite everything, Kyiv seeks to restore relations with Lukashenka. 

If the situation changes rapidly in the region, Ukraine may find itself next to a renewed Belarus without trust among its leadership.

And most important: Ukraine cannot influence its agenda, avoiding the opposition. Moreover, the further, the more difficult it will be to overcome mistrust.

The creation of the government in exile gives Ukraine an opportunity to break the deadlock.

Kyiv currently has nothing to blame, for instance, Pavel Latushka, responsible for the transition of power, or international representative Valery Kovalevsky. Therefore, Ukraine has got the opportunity to leave this "Russian company" regarding the Belarusian opposition and cooperate with it.

How should this happen?

Kyiv gains nothing by de facto continuing relations with Lukashenka. It definitely loses opportunities and trust of anti-Lukashenka Belarusians, who could be naturally by the Ukrainian side but turn their back on it because they consider such a policy of Kyiv unacceptable.

This is a great opportunity to revive the "Lublin triangle" (union of Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania). The last two countries advocate Belarus in Europe the most. So they may be the first ones to recognize the government in exile. And if Ukraine unites with them and recognizes this body in the forefront as a joint "Lublin" decision, it will be an excellent signal.

Another scenario is also possible. Ukraine can simply start cooperating with the "Tsikhanouskaya-Latushka government" without officially recognizing them. For example, to meet with one of its representatives in Kyiv.

The main thing is to start.

Playing ostrich is the worst choice for Kyiv.

Written by

Sergiy Sydorenko "European Pravda" editor