Suppose anyone had any doubts that the Hungarian prime minister was determined to a long diplomatic war with Ukraine (and with almost the entire civilized world). In that case, they should have been dispelled these days after the mass media published the summary of Viktor Orbán's speech to his fellow party members.

One thing about this scandalous speech shocked even those who know Hungary well. Orbán surprised them with his poor knowledge of the situation in Ukraine and his false pro-Russian predictions.
However, the main topic is Orbán's confrontation with the European Union.

The Hungary's leader told his fellow party members that he would work on the EU collapse.

One of his short-term tasks is to split the EU unity in its resistance to Russian aggression. And in the long term, he doubts Hungary's membership in the Union as soon as it stops paying into the Hungarian budget. And in general, according to Orbán, the European Union may soon fall apart.

These statements coincided with the aggravation of Budapest's financial dispute with Brussels, which threatened to block another 7.5 billion euros for Hungary. It seems that this will not happen because Orbán plans to make limited concessions for the sake of money: he will fulfill the formal conditions. However, their fulfillment will allow him to avoid adequate punishment for violating European values ​​and avoid changing his plans for undermining and disintegrating the EU.

The question is whether other EU members will realize how serious the challenges are, created by an authoritarian prime minister who is building a small model of Russia in his country.

Orbán's lies, which do not outrage his voters

The Prime Minister of Hungary spoke at a party meeting closed to journalists in the resort village of Kötcse 10 days ago.

The official Hungarian press did not report anything about this speech at the time. However, its theses were disclosed by the journalists of the Hungarian "Radio Liberty." It later attracted the attention of the international media, and in Ukraine, it blew up.

Orbán predicted that Russia's war with Ukraine could last until 2030, and Ukraine could lose up to half of its territory. He considers the West, not Russia, responsible for the full-scale war.

He also believes that it will be very difficult for the rest of the European Union countries this winter due to stopping 40% of its industry. And his most blatant statement sounded is the EU may collapse in the next eight years. In addition, Orbán expects that migrants will overflow the EU capitals.

He also expects to remain Hungary's prime minister until at least 2030, and his Fidesz party will rule the country until at least 2060.

The most dangerous thing is that Orbán plans to destroy the EU from the inside. In particular, ignoring European principles in foreign and domestic policy, demonstrably violating EU values, etc.

It is not the first time a private speech has become public in Hungary.

In 2006, a speech by Orbán's predecessor as prime minister, social democrat Ferenc Gyurcsány, at a similar closed party meeting ended up in the media.

The prime minister, believing that his words would remain private, admitted that his party had deceived the voters. This caused a real political tsunami in Hungary, with massive protests. Gyurcsány's party refused to give up power but lost the election four years later. That speech still influences Hungarian politics.

The scale of Orbán's statements could have a similar effect – but it won't.

Gyurcsány admitted in 2006 that he had deceived a Hungarian voter, which infuriated people. Instead, the statements of Orbán-2022 show that he is deceiving the European Union. And this is a completely different thing.

Even the financial conflict with Brussels will likely leave Orbán without irreversible consequences.

7.5 billion "fine" that Hungary will not pay?

The state under Viktor Orbán remains quite poor compared to other EU members. So it has the right to get funds from the so-called "equalization fund," which helps depressed regions, for example, build infrastructure.

Earlier, the EU also froze approximately 5.5-6 billion from the post-Covid recovery fund to Hungary. On Sunday, despite the day off, the European Commission announced its intention to freeze an additional 7.5 billion euros from the equalization funds.

Likely, the Hungarian Prime Minister will not lose any funds.

First, the EC chose a soft option to pressure Orbán. Thus, the Commission stated that under Orbán's leadership, Hungary lost the rule of law and the justice system's independence.

With this in mind, the EC had every reason to finally, and without alternative, punish the Orbán government with money.

Instead, Brussels has now only issued a warning: acknowledging the breach, it has given Orbán two months to make amends. Only if there is no progress by November 19 will the European Commission really freeze the funds.

The second "detail" - the potential monetary punishment of Hungary may not even happen because Orbán demonstrably renounces almost all European values ​​and unity, but only because of problems with the rule of law.

So it is enough for Orbán to change the legislation in only one sector - and the EU will not block 7.5 billion euros.

Xenophobia, violation of freedom of speech, pressure on the media, violation of EU decisions, friendship with Putin, violation of European sanctions, etc. - everything stays unpunished for Orbán.

At least, this is how Brussels' proposal is formulated.

The EC expects Hungary to create anti-corruption institutions, change the principles of interaction between the courts and the prosecutor's office, etc. If Budapest fulfills all the conditions set by Brussels on time, the threat of freezing funds will pass.

According to his principles, the Hungarian leader was ready for such a sacrifice. Orbán's government has already developed a package of bills formally implementing European agreements and agreed to their text with the EU. The schedule for adopting new legislation was also agreed upon - the European Commission published it on Monday.

Orbán's war against the EU

Of course, problems with the rule of law have accumulated in Hungary, not by chance.

In particular, independent experts and journalists are convinced that the Hungarian authorities received corrupt revenues from single-participant tenders, in which companies close to the ruling party won massively.

But Orbán's team convinced Brussels that changing this practice would take a long time. Therefore, the Hungarian government radically reduced the number of tenders with one participant. The implementation of this indicator was postponed until December 31, 2024!

It is emphasized separately that, on this point, Brussels does not expect immediate changes from Budapest.

This wording of the EC's decision is an undoubted victory for Orbán. After all, he not only preserved a financially important position, which should have been one of the priorities for Brussels. We are talking about 2024, when the next European elections will be held, and members of the European Commission and the European Parliament will change.

Orbán is very much counting on that.

Even in his speech in Kötcse, he stated that he was waiting for governments to come to power in other countries that would support his initiatives to destroy European unity in relation to Russia.

In addition to his undisguised desire to fight against the sanctioned EU unity, the Hungarian prime minister also continues his fight against the unity of values.

And in general, Orbán is increasingly introducing the principles of autocracy in the country.

The same opinion has been advocated by the heads of several Western European EU states for several years in a row. Against this background, the recommendation of the European Commission, which allows Viktor Orbán to get away without actually fixing any of the problems, does not appear to be an adequate countermeasure.

Under these conditions, the instinct of self-preservation should direct the EU to another decision and another mechanism of pressure on the Hungarian colleague.

As "European Pravda" reported, the EU has a legal opportunity to deprive a state that violates basic values ​​of its voice. This would mean that Orbán loses the right of veto and the possibility of undermining the EU unity.

But some EU countries are still not ready to make this step.

It looks like something special is about to happen. Something that will restore the instinct of self-preservation to a united Europe. For example, this could happen if Orbán single-handedly blocked the sanctions against the entourage of his partner, Vladimir Putin.

Therefore, the political "positional war" continues between the EU and Hungary, where the parties occasionally test the partner's "red lines" without crossing them. Only the European Union will lose as a result of such a war.

So far, even Orbán's statements about the expectation of the EU collapse have not convinced Brussels that the situation is really serious.

This may still change.

Written by Serhii Sydorenko,
"European Pravda" editor