September 30 was a difficult day for the world community. Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who had come down to direct nuclear threats in his aggression against Ukraine a week earlier, moved to formally annex four Ukrainian territories in the East and South.

Kyiv did not wait long and added a new headache to foreign partners.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy informed the international community, without agreeing and coordinating his actions, about Ukraine's application to join NATO. As a result, on the same day, he heard a poorly disguised refusal from the White House.

But this non-standard move by Kyiv is not a mistake.

Despite the skepticism of the United States and the NATO Secretary General, this step will not cause Ukraine any harm in joining the Alliance. And it can be helpful in the future.

Another dimension is related to the fact that Ukraine remains a democracy even in times of war. Ukrainian politicians still compete for power, trying to prove who is a more pro-Western politician. The political application to join NATO added value to the current president and created a political legacy for him.

More interesting is that the Ukrainian application has no legal significance. It is an exclusively political document. This article explains the details.

Political application

On the evening of September 30, right after Putin's attempts to annexe four Ukrainian regions, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's press service unexpectedly announced that the president, as well as the prime minister and the Rada chairman, had just signed an application for accession to NATO under an accelerated procedure.

"De facto, we have already worked our way to NATO. De facto, we have already proven our compatibility with the standards of the Alliance. Today Ukraine is submitting an application to do this de jure. We are taking a decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated NATO membership," Zelenskyy said.

This is not entirely true.

Ukraine did not act according to the procedure. The procedure for joining NATO does not include submitting an application. Poland, Lithuania, and many other allies have never submitted bids from leaders like Ukraine's. But it is not prohibited to take such a symbolic step. However, it is not obligatory for a future NATO member. For example, Sweden and Finland did so.

Zelenskyy's team also had a political reason for this.

It does not matter what the procedure for joining NATO is. It is important how Ukrainian society sees it. And it is full of NATO supporters.

The Ukrainian opposition often reproaches Zelenskyy for not wanting Ukraine to join the Alliance strongly enough.

Until recently, this criticism was justified. However, Kyiv's position has now changed to Euro-Atlantic. Zelenskyy is forced to fight with the past.

The public and loud submission of the application helps Zelenskyy on the information frontline. And indeed, in Ukraine, the application submission evoked strong support. Even opponents of Zelenskyy praised him.

But his relations with the Allies are not so simple.

Against the US's will

Kyiv's spontaneous decision, adopted presumably because of internal criticism, unpleasantly surprised the West.

Ukraine did not hold consultations on this matter with the NATO Secretary General or key Allies. Numerous sources of "European Pravda" and Western media confirm that.

Ukrainian authorities were also confused.

The adviser to the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podoliak, responsible for communication, unexpectedly announced on Friday evening that the application submission had been agreed upon with the allies. It was not true. One can only imagine the flabbergasted American diplomats and NATO representatives after reading this statement. Therefore, late at night, Podoliak refuted his own point: he published a tweet, clarifying that the consultations only "start from today on."

The first reaction of the State Department and NATO Secretary General to the Ukrainian initiative was cold. It only confirmed that Ukraine's move surprised them.

However, later the White House came on the scene and sent an unmistakable signal. "Ukraine's NATO membership should be taken up in Brussels (that is, the issue of accession) at a different time," said Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor.

Some of the statements were pleasant for Kyiv.

At a press conference on Friday, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly declared her support for Ukraine's bid. "We believe in NATO's open-door policy, and we've always been in favor of Ukraine acceding to NATO," said the head of the Canadian Foreign Ministry. 

Everyone who follows Canada's position on Ukraine's NATO membership understands that this statement is a breakthrough. For the past few years, Canadian diplomats have been very skeptical of Ukraine's desire to take formal steps toward NATO and have convinced Kyiv to stop even talking about the MAP. Now the minister has supported the full membership.

The Baltic states were the only ones to express unequivocal support for Ukraine's accelerated accession to NATO. No one else at the moment. And this is frankly not enough.

This is a consequence of Zelenskyy's team's wrong decision to apply without consulting partners.

Now Kyiv's task is to increase the number of supporters.

What will change for Ukraine and NATO?

A lot will remain unchanged.

Kyiv will not change its vector. It will continue to seek membership and ask the West for additional security guarantees until Article 5 is in action.

NATO will not change the format of relations with Ukraine.

There is no room for change. Ukraine is already a candidate, an aspiring country. Kyiv rejects the Membership Action Plan (MAP) interim option and wants full membership. And the Alliance is not ready for that.

NATO's unpreparedness for Ukraine's membership will not change either.

The ongoing hot war is the main reason. The nuclear threat makes the situation even worse. It is impossible to join the Alliance in a state of war.

But even after victory, Ukraine will not automatically become a NATO member. Some allies believe Kyiv does not meet the political criteria for effective democracy. Many also use Ukraine's perspective as an incentive for reforms.

It is also essential that the Biden administration is skeptical of Ukraine's NATO bid for a large number of reasons. Before it's changed, a favourable decision is unrealistic.

However, the bid also brings good consequences

There is no doubt that Kyiv aspires to join NATO.

It is also important that Ukraine firmly fixes its intention without any intermediate stage – the Membership Action Plan, which would only slow the process down. Ukraine needs to join the Finnish-Swedish model or develop a new format. This will be relevant during Zelenskyy's presidency. In case he does not have time to bring Ukraine to NATO - for his successor.

Written by Sergiy Sydorenko
European Pravda editor