On Saturday evening, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation announced Russia's withdrawal from the UN-led Black Sea Grain deal on the safe sea export of agricultural products from Ukraine.

Russia responded this way to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russia-annexed Crimea. However, it lacks logic. Suspending grain export will not stop the Ukrainian army, but instead will hit the poorest countries in the world with a threat of starvation. Kyiv says that Russia simply found a reason to destroy the "grain deal" because it does not want to extend it.

But there are reasons to believe this decision was spontaneous and not thoroughly thought out.

Because of the Moscow's mistakes, there is an opportunity to restart the grain deal without Russia using its voluntary refusal to participate in its implementation, once again unlocking the grain export to world markets.

It all depends on Erdoğan, who can win the role of "savior of the world from hunger." But he must decide on bolder actions contrary to Putin's position.

Türkiye has already taken the first steps on this path. You can read about the development of events and scenarios in this text.

Two options for Russian lies

Even on Saturday, we heard several statements from Moscow about withdrawing from the Grain deal even though the details differed significantly.

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation was the first to announce the change. Responsible for the Grain deal: Minister Shoigu in July signed an agreement with Türkiye and the UN on allowing grain exports to leave Ukraine to help ease a global food crisis.

They said that Russia "suspends its participation in the implementation of agreements on the export of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports" and is doing so because of an alleged "terrorist attack on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian vessels involved in the security of the grain corridor."

The statement was false down to the details. It was not a "terrorist attack" but an attack on a military facility of the Russian Federation in the occupied territories. Not a single civilian vessel was damaged. And the affected warships of the Russian Federation were not involved in the deal: it directly forbade them even to approaching the grain corridor (paragraph E of the document).

The main problem in the statement of the military was different. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, which published its statement after half an hour, proved it. It no longer referred to non-existent "civilian vessels." And instead of "suspending Russia's participation," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced "suspension of its (agreement) implementation for an indefinite period," stressing that the "grain agreement" should not be implemented without the participation of the Russian Federation.

Hostage ships

The agreement was signed in July 2022 for 120 days. It expires on November 20, 2022, unless the parties agree on its extension. Meanwhile, there is no option of suspending Russia's participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

In the deal, Russia guarantees that it will not fire on three Ukrainian ports used for grain export and will not attack civilian vessels that have passed the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) near Istanbul. It was established under the auspices of the United Nations.

Russia was not satisfied with the Grain deal before: it benefited Ukraine and the whole world, but not Moscow.

Recently, the Russian Federation has slowed the inspection of ships passing through the grain corridor. Some had to wait three weeks or longer for their turn to be checked. Now Moscow has announced its withdrawal from the JCC, blocking the passage of ships to and from Ukraine through the Bosphorus. 218 ships have turned into hostages. 101 are waiting for inspection for permission to enter the Black Sea. The rest are blocked in the Black Sea or Ukrainian ports.

In this situation, there are three options for the development of events:
1) Russia forgets about its Saturday hysteria and returns to the Grain deal and the composition of the JCC;
2) more than a hundred civilian ships literally become Russia's hostages;
3) Ukraine, Türkiye, and the UN implement the grain deal...without Russia's participation, unlocking grain and ships.

We should dwell on the third option separately.

Hybrid Grain deal

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Grain deal is a matter of image - personally and for the Turkish state, in the eyes of other Asian and African leaders.

The physical survival of many people in the world's poorest countries, as well as political and social stability, depends on whether Ukrainian grain will go to the world market. For Erdoğan, who is building an image for himself as a regional leader, it is important to create a vision for himself as the one who saved these leaders from falling.

Therefore, the suspension of the Grain deal was not in his interests. He had to either convince Russia to return to the JCC or... to continue without it. The grain deal is submitted so that it makes it possible.

If Russia insists that it is no longer a party to the agreement and does not act as part of the JCC, then Türkiye, Ukraine, and the UN will still remain. They can start inspecting ships heading to and from Ukraine on their own. And all the ships that go to the ports of the Odesa region will have a UN Versailles certification that it is a peaceful ship without military cargo.

A Russian attack on such an UN-certified ship would be a serious escalation by Russia in its relations not only with the UN and Türkiye but also with the poor countries of Africa and Asia, which provide it with the remnants of support in the same UN and other international organisations.

Moscow understands this clearly.

But we should improve the deal, for example, by adding the presence of UN and Turkish inspectors in the port grain terminals on the spot.

Of course, this is not enough to guarantee the safety of the grain corridor. Therefore, at the same time, it is necessary to inform Russia through Turkish channels about the inadmissibility of violating the grain agreement. Erdoğan knows how to do it.

Nothing prevents Russia from returning to the regular implementation of the grain deal.

Erdoğan got angry

Late in the evening, Russian state media reported that "Ukraine, Türkiye, and the UN (without Russia - EP) agreed on a movement plan for 14 vessels on October 31 under the "Black Sea grain initiative" and passed on information about it to the Russian side."

And closer to midnight, the JCC officially notified already about 16 vessels, which it coordinated without the Russians. Also, the inspectors (also without the Russians) completed their inspection of 11 ships in less than a day and permitted their departure from the Black Sea.

It turned out that the commission works incomparably faster without the Russians:

Until now, 11 ships per day managed to pass only once, on September 18. Then the JCC worked a full day.

And that's not it! Türkiye, the UN, and Ukraine agreed to increase the number of inspecting groups from 5 to 10, further increasing the throughput. However, this is only the beginning because, at the moment, we are talking only about ships leaving the Black Sea already loaded with Ukrainian grain. At this stage, diplomatic negotiations are still underway with Russia about the possibility of its return to the agreement's implementation.

And if the first ship, leaving empty on a flight to Ukraine, enters the grain corridor, it will mean that Erdoğan has seriously switched to "plan B." And that day may come very soon.

Written by Sergiy Sydorenko
European Pravda Editor