Ukraine has the full support of the EU countries fighting Russian aggression. There is only one exception - Hungary.

With the full-scale war, the Hungarian government led by Viktor Orbán not only did not cut off ties with his Russian friend Vladimir Putin but, on the contrary, is getting even closer to him.

Hungary does not hide its activities as a Russian lobbyist. However, this friendship is not unlimited.

Hungary is on the verge of an economic crisis. And the main source of funds for Orbán is the European Union.

Hungary as "unequivocally evil"

Hungary is definitely not evil. However, this country is now on the side of evil.

This (at a conference in Lviv. - Ed.) said even oppositional Hungarian MP Zoltán Vajda.

Therefore what is going on now, the fact that Hungarians are turning into "evil" in the eyes of many is a tragedy for the Hungarians themselves, for many of them.

This is indeed a paradox. A Central European country, which revolted in 1956...

Besides, the Budapest uprising was so similar to the Maidan of 2014 in Kyiv, with shootings from rooftops at peaceful protesters...

We got a Hungary that is pro-European, pro-Western, anti-Russian, anti-totalitarian, anti-Soviet - and today's government. The power of cowardice. Hungary today is afraid to tell the truth, not only about Ukraine.

How Orbán looks for money from world dictatorships

Orbán does not have positive feelings about Ukraine, which is not surprising. Orbán, who saw many Ukrainian authorities changing one another, could make a long list of stories of how the Ukrainian side did not fulfill agreements.

Orbán became anti-Western because he appealed to the revolution of 1956 and liberal values ​​for at least half of his career.

He is being led by something else right now: Orbán has got very serious financial troubles.

Therefore, he harms his own reputation. Therefore, he will take Russian dirty money, gas, and oil till the last minute. The Hungarian company MOL, controlled by Orbán, operates on Russian Urals oil. It used to be the wallet that funded the ruling party.

He took clean "white" money from the European Union for good European cohesion projects and dirty money from Russia to build up his regime.

That's why he flirted with Russia: he launched a Russian business and investment bank in Hungary and did not offend Russian "diplomats." It seems that only one diplomat has been expelled from Hungary since 2014! And now it has turned into an oasis for Russian spies in Europe.

Orbán also involved China. For example, a Chinese factory will be built in Debrecen to produce accumulators for electric cars.

All these sources are shrinking nowadays.

The European Union said "enough is enough" and activated the mechanism of the rule of law, under which it plans to freeze a third of the seven-year budget for Hungary. Due to sanctions and hardship, the Russians can no longer finance Hungarian loyalty. China faces a crisis and is cutting its budget on public diplomacy in Europe.

It means that all the "extra" money that Orbán could have spent on paying bonuses, buying or taking over some media, or opening some Central European holding has disappeared.

Collapse of Orbán regime due to finance shortage

Will the funding crisis lead to the collapse of Hungary's economy? Economists have been discussing this possibility since 2018 because Orbán's government ran larger government budget deficits.

Over the past year, Orbán has wildly inflated the budget to buy voter loyalty. "Thirteenth pensions," freezing of fuel prices, payments for children and write-off of loans for the third child, various additional payments to weapons owners, the police... Where will this money come from?

Orbán already has to take painful steps to save money. The government is closing recreation centres and has frozen a bunch of projects.

And at the same time, Orbán is doing his favourite thing: making up enemies on whom to blame.

He turned Brussels into enemies in the same way.

The fact that Hungary has its own currency, the forint, is helping him. He can play with it. This is one of the reasons why they do not introduce the euro.

But there is currently no strategic way out of the crisis.

Denigration of Ukraine by state propaganda in Hungary

The way the pro-government mass media refer to Ukraine is often beyond comprehension. A recent high-profile example is "billboards with a bomb." The government spent taxpayers' money to place a bunch of advertisements around the country with an aerial bomb allegedly falling on Hungary. The bomb reads "sanctions." They said the EU is not aiming its sanctions at Russia but at Hungary. It was especially cynical when real bombs fall on Ukraine.

Residents of Budapest were shocked by this campaign and perceived it as a shame. This applies even to some Budapest representatives of Fidesz, Orbán's party.

It is nothing personal for Orbán, "just business." Orbán's goal is to retain power. If they find it "profitable" to use Ukraine, then Ukraine it is.

Orbán does not care about morality. He has no moral boundaries. But thanks also to this, he has been in power for 12 years.

His success in using any technique strengthens the feeling of permissiveness. He acts like "he is God" and gains power by any means.

Now Budapest is blocking financial aid for Ukraine. This signal is not addressed to Kyiv or Moscow, but Brussels: "Give us the money."

About territorial claims against Ukraine

We have heard about territorial claims to Ukraine from many people many times. As of today, it is pointless to discuss it. These claims are not based on anything.

However, we should pay attention to "informational militarisation" of the Ukrainian-Hungarian conflict.

For example, there is an Orbán's puppet organisation, CÖF ("Civil Solidarity Forum"). It organises a march to the anniversary of the revolution of 1848 once a year, on March 15, and in fact - in support of Orbán.

The co-head of this organisation, Tamás Fritz, is Orbán's "talking head."

He has recently stated that Hungary should prepare for possible Ukraine's aggression.

All these factors make social anxiety even higher. Surveys confirm that. The Institute for Central European Strategy and Pew Research Center asked, "Do you consider the territory of a neighbouring country your territory?" A high percentage of Hungarians answer "yes."

When Romanians were asked: "Do you think that Hungary wants to take Transylvania?" half of the respondents answered "yes." The same in Ukraine: when a nationwide survey asked: "Do you think that Hungary can use "protection of national minorities" to send troops to Transcarpathia, as Russia did?", almost 50% of Ukrainians said they see such a threat

This public opinion can be used by radical right-wing movements. Orbán's government is playing with these things very irresponsibly.

Russian influence on Hungarian-Ukrainian relations

Hungarians generally denied Russia's influence for a long time. They refused to admit that the Russians were working in Transcarpathia. They are the ones who burn and blow up Hungarian symbols to incite confrontation with Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Russians work really systematically.

The Institute of Central European Strategy saw that the Russians actively began to work on the "militarisation" of Ukrainian-Hungarian relations right when they were gathering troops on the Ukrainian-Russian border for the invasion (September - October)

Such a medium like Orosz Hírek, i.e., "Russian News," launched its activity. In November-December, Orosz Hírek reached more users on Facebook than Telex (an influential medium outside Orbán's empire. - Ed.)!

What should Ukraine do with such a neighbor?

First, Orbán can still start making decisions beneficial to Ukraine.

Of course, he himself does not want to be either a liberal or a reliable ally, but he has to. And it seems that he has no way out. The most important that the European Union has finally found a mechanism to influence Orbán, by limiting the flow of European money.

Also, it depends on the situation in the United States - Orbán is betting and counting on Trump's return.

How to act in Ukraine? Do not forget that Hungary is an EU and NATO member, which we aspire to join.

Ukraine has to negotiate with them.

We should talk about the real assistance they can provide - fuel, grain export, etc.

As for the voting in the European Union, the Hungarians are provoking and scandalising in order to reach an agreement in the end. This is their way of doing business. Hungary has publicly stated that it supports Ukraine's European integration. We should remind them of this.

However, it is necessary to solve the issue that Hungary and Ukraine need to communicate more. There are no contacts, but we need them.

Dmytro Tuzhanskyi, director of the Institute for Central European Strategy (Ukraine)