Russian aggression was a turning point for the self-awareness of Ukrainians as Europeans, or even representatives of Western civilisation, striving for Ukraine's full EU and NATO membership.

The most significant change is that after February 24, all macro-regions, without exception, aspire and believe that Ukraine will join both organisations.

Moreover, many Ukrainians do not believe in the evolutionary and difficult path of Ukraine's return to Europe but in revolutionary changes. The largest group of Ukrainian citizens demands not only a movement towards membership but also reforms because, without them, Ukraine will not be granted NATO or EU membership. And in this matter, public opinion surprises us. It turned out that most Eurosceptic regions tend to equalise European integration and reforms.

These are the results of a survey conducted in December by the "Democratic Initiatives" foundation and the Razumkov Center sociological department in cooperation with "European Pravda."

European Union: high support with nuances

Even before the full-scale invasion, the majority of Ukraine's citizens supported EU integration (an unpublished survey by the "Democratic Initiatives" Foundation and the Razumkov Center a year ago showed 56%). However, studies showed that "European integration" for many was connected primarily with personal economic benefits and higher living standards, not based on values and civilisational choice.

The studies showed even those Ukrainians who worked in the EU could not agree upon Ukraine's need to join the EU.

What has February 24 changed?

First, the idea of a "special path for Ukraine" has vanished.

Only 27% of Ukrainian adults in December 2021 supported neither joining Europe nor Russia. Other 8% openly declared their support of the Eurasian Economic Union.

The full-scale Russian invasion has changed that, convincing many of those who did not want to join the EU. The survey indicated the first change in public opinion in Ukraine's central and western regions back in May 2022. According to the all-Ukrainian survey, we can say with certainty: the civilisational choice for the EU has become obvious.

About 79.4% of Ukrainians support joining the EU, and exactly ten times fewer respondents (7.9%) are against it.

Comparing to 2021, support for joining the EU has significantly increased. But if we analyse the dynamics of this support during the full-scale Russian invasion, the picture is not so rosy anymore.

Thus, the May survey indicated that 89% of respondents in the West and the Center support joining the EU. The numbers in these macro-regions have dropped to 85% and 82% as of today.

Other surveys conducted since February 24 have also shown a decline in support for joining the EU. This is a big alert for the authorities and pro-European forces, especially if the trend continues in 2023.

There is definitely good news. There is the vast majority of supporters of Ukraine's EU accession in all macro-regions of Ukraine. European integration has the least support in the East. However, 67% of Eastern respondents voted "for" the EU and only 14% "against."

Yesterday's Eurosceptics demand reforms

As mentioned above, sociologists have recorded public support for joining the EU for a long time. Although the share of supporters was smaller - especially in the Ukrainian East and South. Compared to the West, these two macro-regions would be "Eurosceptic."

"Ukrainoskeptics" liked to point at regional differences and the lack of unanimity in society. They tried to find excuses to say "no" to Ukraine's EU aspirations. This is not a point anymore.

Another point, which Western politicians and experts have long been using, is that many Ukrainians aspire to join the EU but, they say, do not seek reforms and do not demand them from the authorities.

The 2022 study showed that this is also changing for the better.

Ukrainians now demand reforms, and Ukrainians do understand that without reforms, joining the EU is impossible. This will become a good reference for Ukrainian diplomats and politicians in their dialogue with partners.

Thus, over 60% said that the government should "do everything that European institutions require to speed up Ukraine's EU accession." All regions, without exception, demand reforms defined by the EU, showing more than 50% support for this statement.

This statement was not measured before (as the process began in 2022). So it will be important to monitor how this indicator changes over time.

This indicator is an important signpost for politicians who must understand that Ukrainians will not tolerate a government, which puts private political or corporate economic interests above the European aspirations of the people, disrupting the European integration process.

In order to measure the attitude of Ukrainians to the reforms, we asked an additional provocative question: whether Ukrainians expect that the EU, given the war, will agree to a simplified accession procedure and turn a blind eye to the implementation of some reforms. The most popular answer was the demand for reforms: 37% of Ukrainians believe that the EU "will offer Ukraine full membership but only in case of implementation of all reforms and conditions without concessions." The skeptics are in the minority: 16% believe that even with the reforms, Ukraine will obtain "not full membership but something else," and 12% expect that Ukraine will remain an "eternal candidate" (like Turkey).

Another 12% of respondents do not have an opinion but data analysis shows that they mostly do not care due to their old age. They do not expect any important achievements in European integration in their lifetime.

The biggest surprise of the survey is the South of Ukraine, one of the most Eurosceptic macro-regions. The strongest correlation between reforms and membership is that 45.4% said that Ukraine, having implemented all reforms, will become a full EU member.

NATO without alternatives

The war with Russia has proven that a country needs modern Western weapons for victory. Cooperation in the defense industry is important to deter Russia in the future. The best security guarantee is provided by NATO membership – all experts and key politicians agree, including President Zelenskyy and the leadership of the Office of the President.

But what do ordinary Ukrainians think?

We asked about the best options for Ukraine to guarantee national security. We suggested not only NATO membership not to limit the choice but also several other options.
Joining NATO as the main element of Ukraine's post-war security was leading all the time, getting 49% support. Moreover, NATO leads in all macro-regions. The once popular idea of "neutrality" seems to be dead now. Only 8.5% of respondents supported it (South – 13%, East – about 17%).

Trust in joining NATO is even higher!

About 19% believe that even war should not become an obstacle and that Ukraine can join the Alliance even before its victory. Another 25% of respondents believe that joining NATO will happen right when the war ends and all necessary reforms are implemented (69% in total).

The camp of skeptics regarding Ukraine's NATO membership is only 16%, which is much smaller even than the number of those who seriously doubt Ukraine's EU accession.

This optimism is probably one of the prominent features of the public opinion of Ukrainians in 2022.

Finally, an interesting detail: among optimists about Ukraine's future, 89% support joining the EU. Conversely, among EU supporters, optimism about the future of Ukraine is observed twice as often, confidence three times as often, fear twice as often, pessimism eight times as often, and hopelessness three times as often.

There is a correlation between a positive perception of Ukraine's future and support for joining the EU.

Authors:
Petro Burkovsky,
Ilko Kucheriv Foundation "Democratic Initiatives"
executive director
Sergiy Sydorenko,
"European Pravda" editor