Ukraine's neighbour - the Republic of Moldova, which mistakenly looks like an island of stability - has again hit the center of the action. In the last weeks and even days, the government was dismissed, the Russian plan to overthrow the government was revealed with Ukraine's help, and finally, the plan to defeat the separatist regime in Transnistria was voiced publicly.

On February 13, President Maia Sandu disclosed details of an alleged Russian plan for a military coup, which, she said, included attacks on some state institutions and taking hostages.

Meanwhile, a potential Russian attack has led to genuine political consequences.

Maia Sandu has carried out the long-desired government rotation, appointing her security ally as Prime Minister. Sandu has officially announced security would be one of the main priorities for the new government of Moldova.

It might eventually help the president restore her ratings, and if she does everything correctly, she will be able to consolidate society against aggressive Moscow. But most important, Moldova's authorities have to convince their voters that the Russian coup plan was real.

Coup in Moldova. What do we know?

The President of Ukraine was the first person to make the information on Russia's alleged special operation to seize power in Moldova public last week during his visit to Brussels.

"Recently, I spoke with the president of Moldova, Mrs. Sandu, and informed her about what our intelligence managed to intercept: a detailed Russian plan to destroy the political situation in Moldova," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukrainian intelligence had received a "Russian document" detailing the actions and an explanation of "who, when and what" planned to establish control over the authorities in Chisinau.

Zelenskyy pointed out: it is currently unknown whether Moscow was ordered to act according to this plan against Moldova.

He said all this during his speech in front of the EU leaders at the EU summit in Brussels. Zelenskyy knew well enough that his speech was broadcast live. Therefore, the "leak" of intelligence data was planned and thought out on the Ukrainian side. Moreover, there is no reason not to rule out that Kyiv and Chisinau had agreed on their mutual disclosure in advance.

First, Chisinau confirmed that, firstly, Ukraine had handed over information about the Kremlin's plans, and secondly, that this information was confirmed.

"The documents received from our Ukrainian partners indicate the locations and logistical aspects of the organisation of this subversive activity aimed at undermining the state of Moldova, destabilisation, and violation of public order," said the Moldovan counter-intelligence.

And, finally, on Monday, Maia Sandu held an emergency press conference "on security issues" in Chisinau, disclosing even more information.

"This is a short-term plan that involves sabotage involving persons with military training disguised as civilians. They are planning violent actions, including attacks on some state institutions and taking hostages," the president of Moldova said.

Who is helping Russia?

Sandu has confirmed that, according to intelligence, the coup should involve foreigners.

The president directly accused one of Moldova's parliamentary parties - the opposition populist party "Shor" - of complicity in preparing the coup without any hint or concealment.

"Criminals (who planned a coup in Moldova. - EP) rely on some internal forces, in particular on criminal groups, such as the "Shor" party, some veterans, former law enforcement officers and people known for their connections with Plahotniuk (the disgraced Moldovan oligarch who controlled the country until 2019. - EP)," she added. The party immediately denied these accusations and, at the same time called on all residents of Moldova... to attend a protest march on Sunday demanding the overthrowing of Sandu and the ruling government.

It is currently unknown where the information about the participation of the "Shor" party came from. Still, it is undeniable that it has not too hidden Russian funding and systematically works to destabilise the country's government.

"Shor" acts creatively in its protests: since the openly pro-Russian position in Moldova is no longer really popular, they do not oppose Moldova's EU aspirations and point out bare populism, promising voters "mountains of gold."

It is a new level. Such harsh accusations against this opposition force have not yet been heard. The "Shor" party will likely be banned next.

However, this will not be the ultimate victory for Sandu in this round.

She has to cope with an even more difficult task: to convince the voters of Moldova that it is not about political repression but about the fight against an external aggressor. This is a challenging task, especially because Russia still maintains considerable influence in the information field of Moldova.

Moldovan power government

The day after the President of Ukraine first announced Russia's planned coup in Moldova, President Sandu gathered all MPs of the ruling party (her PAS party controls more than half of the seats in the parliament) at a closed meeting.

They did not discuss the Russian plans, but the change of the Moldovan government.

The name of the prime minister was also already known. After thanking the current head of the government Natalia Gavrilita for her work, Maia Sandu has asked her colleagues to support the nomination of Dorin Recean. He has previously worked as the secretary of the Security Council and Sandu's security adviser. The process should have been different - Moldova "on paper" is a parliamentary republic. MPs should nominate their candidate for the prime minister to the president, but in this matter, Moldova is very similar to Ukraine.

Sandu is the real head of the state. The government's rating depends on her. She is the one who shapes state policy.

It is the second time when MPs have heard from Sandu about nominating the new Prime Minister. Numerous sources of "European Pravda" among Moldova's authorities say that on November 13, at a similar closed meeting, the president already tried to impose a change of government on her MPs and informed them that she had elected Dorin Recean. However, she faced resistance from the parliament.

Moreover, the MPs agreed with the need to dismiss the government even then.

First, the government needed a more charismatic prime minister who would help raise the government's ratings. Secondly, the government of Gavrilita, which ruled the country during the severe COVID crisis and the war in Ukraine, has accumulated a lot of negativity. Thirdly, there have been many questions from society and international partners for certain government representatives.

In November, Sandu's parliamentary group then informed the president that they did not see her security adviser as prime minister. Like, let her look for someone else, more integrated into their team.

However, the MPs have changed their mind since then.

One of the reasons is that security is becoming the number one priority for Moldova.

Dorin Recean is not a professional politician, but he has a specialist and security expert background. He is the former head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Moldova, the first civilian in the country's history to hold this position.

Worked in the government from 2012 to 2015, when Sandu headed the Ministry of Education. That's when they met. Then he abandoned politics and dealt with private business, returning to power after the victory of Sandu and her team.

Most important is that Recean is pro-Western. Even "too pro-Western" for neutral Moldova.

Recean was one of the top negotiators with unrecognised Transnistria and is one of the few government representatives who knows about this matter. Given the fact that Chisinau is considering changing its approach to this territory controlled by the Russian Federation, this is also important (read more New Level of Transnistrian Conflict: Moldova Takes a Step to Ruin Pro-Russian Separatist Regime).

Sandu and Recean have already announced that security will be among the new government's priorities.

But first of all, the authorities of Moldova will have to end the planned Russian coup story, both in explaining and preventing it. The already announced plans of the authorities to strengthen the powers of counter-intelligence show that Chisinau takes this quite seriously.

Written by Sergiy Sydorenko,
Editor, "European Pravda"