No Jets for Ukraine Yet: Ramstein Allies' Plan to Prepare Ukraine for Offensive

Right ahead of the ninth meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, smiling Oleksii Reznikov arrived at the NATO headquarters in Brussels early in the morning.

He did not say much but showed the journalists a handkerchief with a Su-27 drawing from his pocket. The minister said he expected to obtain planes "from the sky."

However, fighter jets, given the public statements of both the Ukrainian side and Western countries, turned out to be far from the main subject. Moreover, no breakthrough in this matter was announced.

Instead, it was pointed out that Ukraine should be ready for its counteroffensive in the spring. Time is gradually starting to play against Kyiv and the West.

Find out more about the results of the ninth "Ramstein" in Brussels's story of "European Pravda." 

Heightened reality...

Hopes for at least some kind of decision on fighter jets at "Ramstein" were fueled up by the Ukrainian side.

Ukraine could break down the next "red line" just recently. In particular, the UK were the first to announce that it would start training Ukrainian fighter pilots in Western aviation.

However, even under such conditions, sending jets was not yet discussed. British Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, hinted that the programme's results might appear when the full-scale war phase ends.

Optimistic news also came from Slovakia, which confirmed that after an official request from Kyiv, it could start negotiations with the European Union on sending their MiG-29s.

Ukraine also requested the Netherlands, which in general was the first to confirm readiness to consider providing Ukraine with F-16s. Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren assured that Amsterdam takes this request seriously.

Therefore, it is not surprising that

the Ukrainian side was quite optimistic about the chances of agreeing on the jets in Brussels.

...and grounded expectations

NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, made a public statement on jets: discussions about fighter jets are underway, but they are "not the most urgent issue now."

"Our top priority or the urgent need now is to ensure the heavy weaponry, the modern air defence systems, the ammunition, all the other things we need to ensure that Ukraine gets the advanced and modern systems, which are already been pledged and that can really make a difference on the battlefield," Stoltenberg said, answering questions from EuroPravda.

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin was even more brief:

"I don't have any announcements on aircraft to make today."

The non-public issue, believed to have been discussed at Ramstein, was Russia's new massive offensive. To be more precise - an offensive with aviation.

And, as the Financial Times reported on Tuesday concerning some Western intelligence, "Moscow is preparing to throw its jets and helicopters into the war to support a stuttering land offensive." This issue was allegedly a top priority at the current "Ramstein."

U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, made a media statement following "Ramstein," saying that today's priority was to counter Russia's air potential.

"We do know that Russia has a substantial number of aircraft in its inventory and a lot of capability left. We need to do everything that we can to get Ukraine as much air defence capability as we possibly can," the Secretary said.

Based on that, Germany announced to restart the production of ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft guns.

And more - the joint decision of France and Italy to send SAMP/T to Ukraine. The Netherlands promised to provide a launcher for NASAMS.

Does this mean that fighter jets are off the agenda? Barely. After all, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius later admitted that the discussion could resume in three to four months, just when Ukraine is about to launch its counteroffensive.

Anticipating Ukraine's offensive 

"I expect Ukraine to conduct an offensive against Russia in the spring. Because of this, all of us and our partners in the Contact Group are working to ensure they have the armour, firepower and logistics to make it effective," Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin explained.

As U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley announced, the "tank coalition" consists of 11 countries, and 22 countries have promised to provide infantry fighting vehicles.

Most important is how fast this equipment will end up in Ukraine.

And also - what specific obligations have the "tank coalition" states undertaken?

Even before the "Ramstein," German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that only Germany (14 Leopard 2) and Portugal (three tanks) had given specific commitments. The others are apparently not being discussed. Separately, Canada reported that its four "Leopards" are already in Poland, where they have begun to be mastered by the Ukrainian military. Norway announced during "Ramstein" that it would hand over eight "Leopards."

We could mention Poland's announcement of sending 60 tanks, including PT-91, as well as 90 modernised T-72s from the Czech Republic. But they, too, are stretched over time and will not be completed until late spring.

Another no less important problem is the lack of artillery ammunition, which Ukraine has been using at a record pace since the Second World War.

If the full-scale war in Ukraine remains at least at the same level of intensity, this problem will become critical this year.

That's why "Ramstein" participants are betting on restarting additional production of shells.

"We are working with the Ukrainian soldiers in various places throughout Europe to emphasise additional training on maneuver. So that as they place more emphasis on maneuver, and shaping the battlefield with fires and then maneuvering, there's a good chance that they'll require less artillery munitions", explained Lloyd Austin.

Accounting

An important point that was briefly mentioned by the Ukrainian and American sides following "Ramstein" is accounting of the military equipment sent to Ukraine.

"Today there was a report, in particular, that the modern NATO checking systems that we use are primarily the LOGFAS system. We invited any country, if necessary, to check up to the unit, to the battalion, the place where the weapons from their country are located," Oleksii Reznikov told reporters on the sidelines.

Journalists were not directly explained what this unexpected attention to accountability was connected with. EuroPravda's interlocutors pointed out that the Western allies did not ignore the latest corruption scandals in Ukraine's Ministry of Defence.

After all, the LOGFAS system mentioned by Reznikov, as he himself said last year, works only up to the brigade level. The interlocutor of EuroPravda described what is happening at lower levels as a "paper army." The head of Defence Ministry is personally responsible for that.

The fact that Kyiv is ready to cooperate on weapons accounting - as well as personnel decisions in the Ministry of Defence, where a new deputy for digital transformation is to appear - should be positively received in the West.

We hope this will soon strengthen the trust between Ukraine and its Western partners and unblock new types of weapons to fight Russian aggression.

Written by Oleh Pavliuk,

Journalist, "European Pravda," 

from Brussels (Belgium)