The West slowly but surely "pushes" Serbia to compromise with Kosovo and impose sanctions on Russia.

Such events did not look promising even a few months ago but Serbia got scared because of the threat of EU sanctions.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić now says he doesn't know how much longer Belgrade could restrain from this move.

Fundamental changes have already occurred in the Kosovo case.

The Serbian authorities not only agreed to the Franco-German plan of understanding but also managed to get the approval of these actions in the parliament.

There is only one step away from reaching a historic compromise - Kosovo's agreement to establish the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities. As "European Pravda" learned, there is also significant progress.

The agreement on Kosovo can completely change the situation in the Balkans because Serbia will no longer need Russia's help. It simplifies imposing sanctions on Russia by Belgrade and can also change Serbia's foreign policy. 

Vučić lobbies concessions

The Serbian parliament went through a tough couple of days. MPs were yelling "Shame" and "We will not give up Kosovo" and even a fight between the opposition and the ruling Serbian Progressive Party occurred.

That's how it went at the end of last week when Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić reported on Kosovo negotiations with the West.

The day before, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić signaled a possible agreement for normal relations with its former province of Kosovo, developed by France and Germany. This could not but shake the opposition, which demanded to reject any proposal without the return of Belgrade's sovereignty over Kosovo.

The Franco-German plan does not require Serbia to recognise the independence of Kosovo. It is only about refusing to block Kosovo's entry into international organisations, primarily the UN. This plan replicates the Cold War relationship between FRG and the socialist German Democratic Republic.

However, even such a concession would be impossible. The efforts of Serbian diplomacy were aimed at persuading the countries that recognised Kosovo's independence to change their mind. They wanted to prevent the growth of the number of countries recognising Kosovo, so it does not have enough for its acceptance into the UN.

Aleksandar Vučić explained the change in his policy, stating that Serbia was under unprecedented pressure. Moreover, Western diplomats directly threatened him to freeze economic programmes in case of rejection of the Franco-German plan. 

The events in the Skupština (Parliament of Serbia) turned out to be telling. Following all the screaming, insults, and fights, the parliamentarians supported the report on Kosovo - 154 votes "for" and only 23 "against." Thus, Aleksandar Vučić shows he still controls the parliament and can implement any initiative.

Events near the parliament, where a rally against compromises on Kosovo was supposed to occur, were no less telling.

This rally was an outright failure. According to Serbian mass media, only a few dozen people came to protest, which had long been presented by state propaganda as key for the country. It convincingly proves that society will agree to such compromises.

The only point: Belgrade desperately needs to save face by showing that both sides have made concessions. A concession from Kosovo would be to agree to establish the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities. Vučić presents this move as the only possible guarantee of protection for ethnic Serbs in Kosovo.

Therefore, the success of the historical understanding in the Balkans depends on whether Pristina agrees to create this Association. Currently, the Kosovo government stands flatly against it.

However, it seems that the efforts of US and EU diplomats will still be successful here. 

Special status without additional risks

"The West should not forget the sad experience of Bosnia and Herzegovina," says Prime Minister of Kosovo Albin Kurti. This refers to the decision of the West to make concessions to the Serbian minority, creating a separate entity, Republika Srpska, endowed with significant political rights within this country.

Comparisons with Republika Srpska are inevitable when discussing the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities of Kosovo. No matter how Western politicians declare that they will not allow a second Republika Srpska, one cannot ignore that in both cases, citizens who do not want to live in this country and are convinced of its artificiality and unsustainability will receive a special status.

How to compromise on political concessions for the Kosovo Serbs and their preservation in the political life of Kosovo? What powers should the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities of Kosovo obtain so that it convinces the Serbs, but is acceptable to Kosovo without additional risks?

The answer to this question lies in the Statute of this Association, which the West is currently negotiating with both parties. EuroPravda got a chance to read the final draft of this agreement.

The most significant conclusion of this paper is that

the Association does not make up new privileges for Kosovo Serbs, but guarantees the preservation of some existing ones.

The major achievement for the Serbs will be a new body with its own flag and coat of arms, which will have the right to speak on behalf of all 10 Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo. The official name of the new Association is quite complicated - Association of Municipalities in the Republic of Kosovo, in which the Kosovo Serb Community is in Majority.

One of the main possibilities in the draft: the Association will have the right to engage foreign funds, which will legalise Serbian investments in these municipalities.

Another important option: the Statute guarantees the territorial integrity of the municipalities included in the Association. This is important, considering that the Serbian minority makes up only about 2% of Kosovo's population, but their municipalities' territory occupies a disproportionately larger area.

The Association will also improve local living conditions for returnees to Kosovo. It was created for Serbs who lived in Kosovo but left the region during the war. In this way, Serbia hopes to preserve the Serbian presence in the region. 

Unlike the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities of Kosovo will not have the right to block major government decisions or influence foreign policy. However, there is an exception for direct negotiations with Serbia on the recognition of diplomas and certificates and other issues related to the free movement of people and trade.

Moreover, the Statute limits itself to local self-government, primarily education, health care, and protection of cultural identity. At the same time, it points out separately that such activities should not contradict the legislation of Kosovo.

In addition, the draft statute separately emphasises that "the Association/Community will not undermine or circumvent the constitutionally and legally provided authority and competences of the participating municipalities nor in any way replace or undermine the constitutionally and legally provided relationship between the central and local authorities in the Republic of Kosovo."

Another safeguard: the Statute shall be enacted by a legal act of the Government of Kosovo and shall receive the power of a Government regulation under the Kosovo legal system upon review by the Constitutional Court. At the same time, it enters into force within one year after its approval, which gives the Kosovo authorities time to determine the compliance of all details of the Association's work with national legislation.

In case of disputes between the Government and the Association resulting from the review, the Government will refer the issue to the Constitutional Court.

The West is sure that it prevents the intensification of Serbian separatism.

However, other safeguards against separatism are in force in Kosovo, primarily the NATO peacekeeping mission KFOR.

Escape from the Russian Federation

Will the West be able to convince the Kosovo authorities to agree to this compromise? Probably, yes.

We can already observe how the position of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti is changing. He now does not directly reject this compromise but declares that this is possible only in case of mutual recognition of Kosovo and Serbia.

After all, the Kosovo authorities have so far demonstrated the ability to say "no" to EU diplomats but were always keen on concessions when asked by the United States. In addition, Pristina understands if the Agreement fails, it will be an excellent gift for Serbia since the USA and the EU invested so much in the idea. Besides, it will be an even bigger gift for Russia, which clearly cannot bring anything good to Kosovo.

In return

the "Kosovo Compromise" will be able to radically change the balance of power in the Balkans, significantly affecting the interests of the Russian Federation.

Until now, Serbia desperately needed Russia's assistance to block all issues related to Kosovo in the UN Security Council. And for this, Belgrade had to make numerous concessions to the Russian Federation.

This dependence is disappearing. Accordingly, imposing sanctions against Russia by Belgrade seems easier.

So far, Belgrade has stated that it would resist pressure to join Western sanctions against Russia as long as it could. This led to speculation that Belgrade would trade concessions on Kosovo for the status quo on sanctions.

However, the latest statements of President Vučić indicate that Serbia is ready for changes.

Moreover, together with the meeting of the Assembly on Kosovo, another important event took place. The Chief of General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces, Milan Mojsilovic, paid an official visit to the USA.

According to its results, Serbia is expected to reverse its decision to freeze all military exercises and training with foreign partners. This decision was made on February 25 last year and is directly related to

Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Unblocking military exercises with NATO member countries will be a very powerful signal that Belgrade will no longer look back to Russia in its policy.

It is unlikely that Russia will calmly watch as its last (after the Lukashenka regime) ally in Europe runs away from it.

However, if the Kosovo compromise is approved, Russia will not have enough capabilities to block Serbia's "turnaround."

Author Yurii Panchenko,
Editor, "European Pravda"