Ukraine will win the war, but that is not enough

I write this with a loud airborne alert in Kyiv, but I don't leave to the shelter. Amazing how quickly people are used to the new danger – I hardly react to sirens unless I hear blasts nearby.  

But people don't have that privilege in the northern outskirts of Kyiv, where my sister lives. Several small towns – Bucha, Irpen, Borodyanka, Vorzel, Hostomel – found themselves on the way chosen by the Russian army to get to the capital. There are no airborne warnings as no one needs them – otherwise, they would sound 24/7. Military helicopters and jets became new normal. A road to Kyiv passing by these towns is literally packed with damaged Russian tanks and armoured vehicles, so the new invader squads are paving the way through the residential area, indiscriminately shelling them.

But you will hardly find a sign of panic even there. Unbelievable, the prevailing feeling is determination. 

According to the latest poll, the same is all over the country: 88% are sure that Ukraine will win this war, 98% support the Ukrainian army. Territorial self-defence forces are packed from day one. Even in predominately Russian-spoken regions, there are lines of volunteers willing to join the army to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. 

Putin's idea that Ukraine would capitulate was pure nonsense. 

But let me share with you what I felt on February 24th 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. It was a strong feeling of Déjà vu.

Back in 2013, on a cold early morning of November 30th, I was desperately knocking on the hotel door, waking up the EU diplomat staying there, to tell about shocking events in Kyiv. It was in Vilnius, right after the EU Eastern Partnership summit, where Ukrainian president Yanukovych refused to sign the Association agreement, perceived by many in Ukraine as a symbol of the European aspirations.  

The reason for the refusal was in no way secret.

It had a name: Vladimir Putin.

Putin and Yanukovych agreed on a deal that included Ukraine's distancing from the EU. Yanukovych did what was promised. He's got his portion of humiliation in Vilnius and, upon return to Kyiv, decided to take out on pro-European students peacefully gathering at the central square of the Ukrainian capital. Those were encircled by pro-Yanukovych SWAT and severely beaten for no reason. Pure revenge.

This blew all over the country.

The EU diplomat whom I was knocking to was shocked to hear this, but then replied: "Sergiy, I know what happens next. Ukrainian people will take Yanukovych down, his successor will sign the Association. But these times will not be easy". 

It turned out to be true. Ukraine has lost 100 lives during the Revolution of Dignity, sparked by these events. It was a price the nation paid for its European future. 

And then came Putin. 

He did what no Western capital expected. He occupied and annexed Crimea, occupied and destroyed industrial Donbas. A hybrid war against Ukraine took more than 13 thousand lives. 

Russia ruined the world order back in 2014, not now. Not just Putin, it's Russia who did it.

Russian society has widely supported military actions in 2014 and backs bloody invasion in 2022. Putin's approval rating is just rising. 

But Putin did not reach what he ultimately wanted. 

Right the opposite: he united Ukraine towards Europe. We signed the Association, got visa liberalisation, implemented a list of reforms. The EU- and NATO support have rocketed and remained high throughout these years. Ukraine made the EU accession a national idea with no reciprocity from the EU.  

One can say it's a dark joke that the fastest way to destroy the national idea is it wipe the nation. 

But for Putin, it's not a joke at all. 

In 2008 he first openly spoke at NATO Bucharest summit that he does not recognise a right for the Ukrainian nation to exit, and he repeats this year by year. These days and weeks, he passed from words to actions.

Let's not turn a blind eye that Europe did not understand that in 2014. But in 2022, the West is finally waking up. 

And that's what my Déjà vu is about.

Of course, Ukraine will win the new war with Russia, the way we won the Revolution of Dignity. But that is not enough.

Like in 2014, we need to get from this crisis stronger. And we'll do that. I'm pretty sure that in 2022 the EU will recognise Ukraine as a candidate state and will start negotiation on accession. 

It will open a long road with plenty of reforms needed, but that will be our job. And we will do that. Just give us a chance. 

You need it the same way as we do. It is the only way to stop Putin. 

The goal of Putin's actions in Ukraine is to prevent us from joining the EU and NATO. He won't stop harming Ukraine and destroying European security until we get there. 

The sooner the EU will realise this – the better for Europe. 

At long last, we deserve it.

Ukrainians have proved by deeds that we are Europeans. We are the only nation fighting for its European future! 

Last but not least: Ukrainian integration to the EU can change the ugly Russia we see now. There is no better way to prove to Russian people that democratisation leads to prosperity than showing it in the Ukrainian example.

Democracy can be contagious in the post-Soviet space. Ukraine is a clue for that.

Sergiy Sydorenko, editor of the website European Pravda, Kyiv