Only after facing unprecedented media and diplomatic pressure, Germany has announced a decision to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, at the same time, allowing their re-export by other European countries.

This is an important signal. But why did Germany take so long? What role did the Kremlin's propaganda machine play in this, spreading disinformation like a super–virus around the world?

There is an important thing to remember about Western politicians: they always look back at ratings and public opinion. Therefore, doubts about the transfer of Leopards to Ukraine have roots, in particular, in the plane of public opinion.

Unpopular decisions often give leaders a place in history. But in most cases, they are not a ticket to government offices. Olaf Scholz understands this very well. The Leopards were waiting for their right moment. And for the maturation of electoral sentiments within Germany, despite the attempts, sometimes successful, of Russian propaganda to convince the Germans of the opposite.

Precaution first

Should Scholz be blamed for his continued hesitation about transferring heavy weapons? Anyone who understands the price that Ukraine pays for another day of war will answer yes. However, the situation on the other side of the coin is that despite the war with Russia, internal political competition and power struggles continue in the West.

They are preparing for the elections, which means that when making any decision, they strive to satisfy their voters, as long as it has a positive effect on the ratings.

Olaf Scholz is a politician, and he does his job. He is not devoid of rationality and his own motives. 

Since elections to the Bundestag, the Social Democratic Party of Germany, represented by Olaf Scholz, has been gradually losing electoral support. Thus, in August 2022, the level of support for the SDP dropped in polls from first place to third with a rating of 19%, lagging behind the CDU (28%) and the Greens (21%). The government's activities were also questioned: in the summer, only 27% of Germans were satisfied with it, and 65% were not.

At the same time, a significant part of Germans is dissatisfied with Scholz's lack of determination. However, the chancellor continues to openly adhere to his political strategy, being confident that this is what matters to his electorate.

"The majority of citizens support a moderate, well-considered and decision-making attitude," Scholz voices his own approach to work, emphasizing that this is exactly what citizens like: "I know that the federal government led by me has the support of the majority of citizens for its approach."

According to the data, at the end of January 2023, only 21% of Germans supported the SDP. As for the mood among the party's voters, according to the latest data, 41% of them were in favor of supplying tanks to Ukraine, and 40% were against it.

This is partly the reason why Olaf Scholz's political position in the context of arms support for Ukraine is precarious.

That is why the negotiations on the supply of tanks turned out to be so long and arduous. It was important for the German government to understand how the Germans would react to such a move. And the SDP, of course, was interested in the reaction of their voters.

The historical context also played a role here, or rather, the burden of guilt for the Second World War.

The Germans did not want to be the first to take a step to increase tension with Russia, so they waited and demanded steps from other countries.

What was important for the German authorities was not to give a reason to raise the issue of the historical confrontation between Germany and Russia. Even though both Russian propaganda and the leaders of the Russian Federation are constantly trying to play in this field.

In addition, the decision-making by the German authorities was burdened by strong ties with the Russian Federation, which lasted for decades, as well as the fear of the unpredictability of the Russian reaction.

Pressure of Russian propaganda

While negotiations continued, the situation on the transfer of tanks was heated up by some German media, which massively spread messages that reflected a more favorable picture for the Russian Federation. "Most Germans do not support the transfer of weapons", "society is divided", "there is no unambiguous position among the Germans". You definitely heard it. And the Germans did. Many times.

For example, a December opinion poll requested by ARD TV channel (which covers events in Ukraine through its own office in Moscow) regarding the support of German citizens for the idea of transferring Leopard tanks showed that 43% of people are "against".

A similar survey was conducted in December on YouGov requested by the DPA news agency (which cooperates with Russia's Reuters and TASS). According to the results, 

only 33% of Germans support the transfer of Leopards to Ukraine. While 45% were against it. 22% of respondents had doubts.

Add to this a number of small German publications, which, according to German experts, the Russians bought out in whole or in part. 

The topic of transferring Leopards to Ukraine clearly was and remains a subject of public interest in Germany. Therefore, it is not surprising that such polls were carried out. But the fact that they were requested, and then actively distributed by the media with a loyal position to Russia, makes one think.

Were they made to influence the course of negotiations, which at that time (December 2022 - January 2023) were in an active and most tense phase?

We can criticize Russian propaganda, and make fun of it, but we must admit that criticism alone cannot win the information war.

Countering Russian disinformation both in the EU countries and around the world is a separate extremely important area that needs to be intensified. Because, as we see, in practice, Russian narratives feel quite comfortable in the European media space and have a strong influence on the mood of voters, and voters, in turn, influence the decision-making of politicians.

Information bubble

International assistance to Ukraine often depends not only on how the leaders of other states perceive our arguments. In addition, it is necessary to focus on the ordinary people, whom they represent.

For months, the goal of Ukraine and its partners in the West has been to convince not only Olaf Scholz, as it may seem at first glance. It was necessary to convince German citizens who influence the political decisions of the authorities and have long been influenced by the narratives of Russian propaganda. A call for critical thinking against information throw-ins, facts against disinformation, and reporting the truth. 

The decision to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is the culmination from the point of view of information resistance to Russian propaganda in Germany. A few months ago, Russia considered Germany an important instrument of its influence in Europe. And not unreasonably. Now, these illusions are destroyed.

We would like to believe that the political and military support for Ukraine in the world during the war is an axiom. For Ukrainians, this is obvious. But in fact, in all successes on the diplomatic and information front, the fight against Russian disinformation, political and economic blackmail and even simple indifference runs like a red thread.

Work is underway, and indicators are changing. According to a Der Spiegel poll, at the end of January 2023, the decision to send tanks and other weapons to Ukraine is already supported by 54% of respondents, 40% consider it "clearly correct", and 14% "rather correct". In contrast, 37% of respondents are still against it. 32% believe that supplying tanks is "clearly wrong", and 5% believe that it is "rather wrong".

Although the overall level of support for Ukraine in German society has increased by 5% over the past year, unfortunately, for some Germans, the war in Ukraine is still not a fully understood military conflict. Yes, they want it to end. However, quite a few people know about its causes and preconditions.

In Europe, the Kremlin propaganda machine with unlimited budgets operates systematically, having created a web of economic, media and political ties long before the war.

For Ukraine and the entire civilized world, this is another challenge in the information field: to explain, to convey the truth to people and to repeat it, again and again.

Because, although the decision to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is the culmination of information resistance to Russian propaganda in Germany, the Russian Federation has not yet suffered a final defeat on this front,

and there is still a lot of work to be done.

Now in the public space, there are discussions about the transfer of aircraft to Ukraine.

Once again, we face serious political resistance. "I think this is out of the question," says German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Ukrainians have already heard something like this many times and each time received the necessary help to approach victory. Therefore, the struggle continues...

 Publications in the "Expert opinion" section are not editorial articles and reflect exclusively the author's point of view.