European Pravda continues to publish the opinions of foreign ambassadors on Ukraine's prospects in 2024. We have invited diplomats representing very different countries and missions to express their views.

The vision of the challenges of 2024 has already been voiced by the EU Ambassador to Ukraine, Katarína Mathernová, as well as the Ambassador of Moldova, Valeriu Chiveri.

A diplomat representing one of Ukraine's most friendly countries, Lithuania, shares his thoughts in this article.

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The Ukrainian nation undoubtedly proved over the past two years that it was able to defeat death itself. The russian army murdered, tortured, raped, and showed the worst of human nature, but nothing broke the Ukrainian spirit. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia lost hundreds of thousands of troops, its army was pushed back from swathes of occupied territories, forcing putin to order mass mobilization. Undaunted, Ukrainians continue to reject the idea of territorial concessions and are determined to pursue their Euro-Atlantic dream. 

Alas, 2024 is likely to be another grueling year for Ukraine.

It may have little to offer but the Churchillian "blood, toil, tears and sweat". I must note, that Ukraine’s spectacular achievements on the battlefield are a result of unity and unbreakable resilience displayed by your society at all levels. Orientation towards victory must remain a key element for the upcoming year as well.

The bravery of the defenders, creativity and generosity of millions of civilians, and maturity of Ukraine’s political class, have led to victories against an overwhelming force. No doubt, besides direct aggression, Russia will do whatever it can to sow discord both within the Ukrainian society and among its international supporters. Therefore, as wartime hardships continue, preserving national unity and cohesion will become the paramount task.

Ukraine will not fight alone

I am convinced, that in 2024 and beyond, Ukraine will continue to receive substantial military and economic aid from around the world.

Even though the US Congress and the European Union are yet to adopt major assistance packages for Ukraine, I remain optimistic that both will be agreed upon early in the new year.

The EU should return to the issue of 50-billion-euro support in its first European Council meeting of 2024. Also, the efforts by the U.S. administration and large majorities of both Republicans and Democrats who continue to support Ukraine give me hope that a solution will soon be found on the Capitol Hill.

Meanwhile the support must keep on coming. The Kiel Institute estimates that Lithuania provided Ukraine with support worth 1,8% of its GDP and is currently the No. 1 country in the world in terms of supporting Ukraine.

We have recently transferred NASAMS air defense launchers to Ukraine, trained thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, provided crucial equipment to withstand russia’s attempts to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid, and started tangible reconstruction activities by rebuilding Ukraine’s schools, kindergartens, and other infrastructure in the liberated areas.

We salute other Ukraine supporters who have already announced their multimillion support packages for 2024. The most recent German package of 1,3 billion euros included the state-of-the-art Patriot air defense systems and signals its readiness to further step up its significant support. Under the leadership of Denmark and the Netherlands, Ukraine will soon receive the long-awaited F-16 fighter jets.

This capability certainly has the potential to become a game changer in the war’s air domain. Japan has found ways to expand its assistance to Ukraine beyond the financial and humanitarian areas. Traditional supporters – the Nordic countries, the United Kingdom, Canada, Poland, and many others – are set to maintain a high level of military support.

In the course of 2024, we also will work so that military industry in the West would gain momentum. With ammunition and equipment stocks in the Western countries depleted by the first two years of the war, outproducing russia becomes

the prerequisite for Ukraine’s success in this war of attrition.

It takes time for the producers to ramp up the production.

However, with new assembly lines installed, we could see a steadier flow of munitions and military hardware for Ukraine. Lithuania understands the complexity of scaling up Western military industry production and will push for creating all necessary conditions for this in 2024. Ukraine’s own defense production capacity is increasing and we should create partnerships that could further boost it.

On the Lithuanian part, there is no hesitation – our government and society will keep the course of supporting Ukraine until victory. These are not just political statements.

The Lithuanian Ministry of National Defense has earmarked 200 million euros worth of military assistance to Ukraine in the period of 2024-2026. This additional funding will be added to the support which Lithuania has already provided during the previous two years. Without a slightest hesitation I can assure you that Lithuania and other closest friends of Ukraine will continue to support your country until victory.

Firmly on the Euro-Atlantic integration path

The past two years were marked not only by the heroism of Ukraine’s defenders on the battlefield but also by the steps your country has made on the path of Euro-Atlantic integration. The European Council's landmark decision in December 2023 to open EU membership negotiations with Ukraine is the recognition of your remarkable progress with the democratic and economic reforms.

It should start revealing its full transformational power already in 2024.

From now on, the accession process will be structured along 35 chapters in key policy areas. In each Ukrainian Government will have clear benchmarks to achieve.

Full implementation of these reforms is essential for ensuring transparency of public institutions, elimination of corruption, and breaking with the post-soviet governance practices that hold Ukraine back. Indeed, going through this scrutiny by the EU institutions has been one of the greatest achievements of Lithuania and the other EU newcomers. It has created conditions for subsequent economic growth, modernization, and foreign investment.

Another major highlight of 2023 for Ukraine came from the NATO Summit in Vilnius. As Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis put it, we brought Ukraine closer to NATO in Vilnius, but we will not waste a day to make much more before the Washington Summit in 2024, as russia is building a new iron curtain across Europe.

Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna in her recent comments confirmed that the Vilnius Summit has marked the start of Ukraine’s real integration into the North Atlantic Alliance. The newly established NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) already has Ukraine at the table as an equal party. It also provides for a format of crisis consultations and oversees the work of the newly established NATO-Ukraine committees in different functional areas.

Furthermore, through Ukraine’s adapted Annual National Program (aANP), Allies will support Ukraine in making reforms and regularly assess Ukraine’s progress in reforming country’s defense and security sectors. Adjacently, a Roadmap for Ukraine’s transition to full interoperability with NATO will be prepared in close consultations with NATO Allies in the nearest future. The implementation of the aANP will be supported through NATO’s Defence and Related Security Capacity Building (DCB) Initiative and a reinforced team of the NATO Representation in Ukraine.

Additionally, the Alliance, together with Ukraine, is transforming the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) into a multi-year programme to help rebuild the Ukrainian security and defence sector and to support Ukraine’s deterrence and defence in the long term.

Today Ukraine’s NATO membership is not a question of "if", but a question of "when".

Needless to say, the Lithuanian Embassy in Kyiv will contribute to this process through its role as the NATO Contact Point Embassy.

As a result, we hope to see a renewed emphasis on reforming and modernizing Ukraine’s security and defense institutions. We are already witnessing significant progress in the "westernization" of Ukraine’s professional military education, human resource management, and defense procurement systems.

However, substantial work in other areas lies ahead. In particular, we are looking forward to the adoption of amendments to the National Security Law (4210) which would entrench the principles of civilian oversight of the military and clarify the chain of command.

The reforms related to the EU and NATO accession would be a major challenge in the best of times. Proceeding with them during russia’s full-scale invasion makes it a truly Herculean task. Yet, to return to the wisdom of Winston Churchill, whose words I echoed in the beginning: "If you are going through hell, keep going".

Ukraine has inspired the whole world with its grit, resilience, and determination. Do not lose this – your greatest gift. Not everything will be perfect, there will be mistakes and painful losses, but as long as Ukraine stays focused and united, it will remain invincible.