On March 16, Ukraine joined the EU electricity system ENTSO-E, a truly landmark step for our European integration path.

Before the war, even optimists anticipated our accession to ENTSO-E only by early next year. And many sceptics noted that the process could take many more years, saying that the "energy EU" is not ready to accept Ukraine at the moment.

It's symptomatic that our integration into ENTSO-E closely intertwined with the onset of Russian aggression: the main test needed to join the European electricity system – a three-day disconnection from Russia and Belarus – began hours before the invasion. And there was no going back.

Therefore, despite all forecasts, Ukraine joined the ENTSO-E at a time of greatest risks, including for the country's energy system. And at a time, we needed the EU assistance more than ever.

European Pravda spoke with Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, CEO of Ukrenergo, to find out how this happened and how membership in ENTSO-E will help Ukraine during and after the war.

"The war proved that the we meet European standards"

– What does joining ENTSO-E mean for Ukraine during the war?

– This means all that works for peacetime, plus it gives us additional stability of our energy system and confidence that during the war, our citizens and the Armed Forces will be provided with electricity.

Accordingly, they will maintain their combat capacity while our economy operates.

Clearly, the war has become a huge challenge for the whole country, including attacks by the occupants on our infrastructure.

All this requires additional reserves of stability, including the possibility of obtaining additional electricity supply in case Ukraine lacks its generation.

Currently, the situation in the power system, despite all the risks, remains stable. But the possibility of obtaining electricity from Europe allows us to look more confidently into the future.

We have guaranteed ourselves an uninterrupted power supply for weeks and months.

That is why today's achievement is so difficult to overestimate.

– Ukraine had to pass a three-day test by disconnecting from the electricity system of Russia and Belarus. This testing began a few hours before the start of the Russian aggression, and it turns out that it has been going on for three weeks ...

– On the eve of this test, we heard a lot of opinions in the expert community, as well as among politicians that it is very dangerous to disconnect from Russia and Belarus, that the Ukrainian energy system will not be able to function independently for a long time, that it will be a disaster if Russia refuses to re-connect after the test.

But the reality stood different: the Ukrainian energy system has proven to be extremely resilient.

We have been able to balance the energy system for weeks, not just in "island" mode, that is, being disconnected from Russia and Belarus, but also during wartime, experiencing the bombing and destruction of critical infrastructure.

We even had a moment when the enemy captured Zaprizhska nuclear power plant at night, and we had to disconnect two nuclear power units from the power system in 10 minutes. And despite all this, we kept the frequency, the stability of the system.

Europeans are very positive about the work of the Ukrainian energy system during these three weeks. This stable work has become one of the key factors why we were able to do this synchronization today.

After all, we have shown everyone that the Ukrainian energy system meets European standards and stability requirements.

– We planned to join the energy union as energy security donors because Ukraine produces more electricity than it needs. What about now? Will we be energy security donors or recipients?

– After joining ENTSO-E, we will restrict the commercial exchange of electricity between Ukraine and the EU for some time. This is necessary to test how stable this integration of energy systems is, to collect some technical statistics on how the energy union of Ukraine and the EU works.

And after we take some additional organizational and technical measures, we will gradually be able to unleash the potential of electricity trade with the EU. It currently has about two gigawatts of power capacity of interstate power lines.

In the long run, of course, Ukraine will be an exporter of electricity. We have enough generating capacity to provide Ukrainian consumers with electricity and sell generation surplus abroad.

Moreover, the region of Central and Eastern Europe has a shortage of electricity.

Ukraine's accession significantly increases the security of supply here.

On the other hand, there will be periods when Ukraine will import electricity. And this is perfectly normal. In the periods when the Ukrainian energy system will need it when it is economically profitable, imports will take place. But in most cases, there will be exports.

As I said, this will be possible when we complete all these technical and organizational measures. This will take from a few months to a year.

"Russians have very limited tools to influence the stability of our energy system"

– But at the same time, there are problems since Ukraine may lose electricity generated by Zaprizhska NPP or even the South Ukrainian NPP at any time. Isn't it possible that, in the event of such a critical load, Europe will not be able to help us, as this will create significant problems for its entire energy balance?

– On the one hand, Ukraine is one of the largest energy systems in Europe, probably the fifth- or sixth-largest.

But on the other hand, in our usual pre-war regime, we make up about 4-5% of the European energy balance.

And in the conditions of Russia's military aggression, our consumption fell by 35%.

Accordingly, the power that we can even theoretically consume from Europe in the event of a critical situation is not able to significantly affect Europe's energy balance.

Another thing is that the capacity of transmission lines between the countries that connect us with Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland is limited, and this limit is 2 GW.

That is, this is currently the upper limit of support we can get from Europe.

But even so, integrating power systems reduces the risks of power outages. This diversification of risks during Russia's military aggression against Ukraine is vital for us.

– Will European assistance be enough if we are forced to temporarily suspend energy production from the South Ukrainian or Zaporizhzhya Nuclear power plants?

– Today, the Ukrainian power system has enough reserves to replace the operation of any nuclear power plant. That is, even if we imagine a situation where we have lost the opportunity to receive electricity from Zaporizhzhya NPP, the Ukrainian energy system can balance such an event at the expense of domestic resources.

It is impossible to damage the Ukrainian energy system in any way from Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant itself.

The maximum that they can do from the ZNPP site is to turn on or off certain power units.

But, as I said, the Ukrainian power system has enough reserves to replace the capacity of Zaporizhzhya NPP, in the coming months for sure.

Therefore, the Russians have very limited tools to influence the stability of our energy system, especially after we acceded to ENTSO-E. Therefore, I would not overestimate their capabilities, especially given the recent successes of the Ukrainian army. I hope that Russian specialists will not be able to "advise" the staff of our nuclear power plants for long.

As for the South Ukrainian NPP, we understand that the situation there is much better, as the occupier did not reach 50 km to the NPP and was defeated near Voznesensk.

Orc troops are now far from the site and do not pose a direct threat to the capture of the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant.

– And what is the situation with other energy facilities? The occupier is deliberately destroying the infrastructure on the territory of Ukraine. What's going on with other power plants, with power transmission lines?

– All hydroelectric power stations function in full.

As for thermal power plants, some of them are located near the site of hostilities. But we have enough generation capacity in the system to replace any thermal power plant or even several thermal power plants, which may be temporarily lost due to hostilities or due to the movement of the front line, which is dynamic.

From this point of view, the energy system is quite well balanced, with a good reserve.

As for power lines and substations, a number of lines have been damaged as a result of hostilities, especially in Slobozhanshchyna, Sivershchyna and, of course, in the area of Mariupol. That is, in those hot spots where hostilities are active, where the enemy with special cynicism and cruelty destroyed civilian infrastructure.

But this does not affect the overall balance. The Ukrainian power system and power lines are still able to supply electricity to the system as a whole.

In some regions, of course, there are problems. Therefore, as soon as our repairmen have a corridor, we will immediately restore this infrastructure and provide electricity for our consumers.

"Disconnection of the Ukrainian energy system is a strategic loss for Russia"

– Will ENTSO-E membership after the war help attract investment for the rehabilitation and modernization of energy infrastructure?

– This is an absolutely critical factor in attracting investment.

We understand that, of course, after the victory, Ukraine will receive a certain format of the Marshall Plan to restore not only energy but also the infrastructure destroyed by the enemy.

But the affiliation of our energy system to ENTSO-E, the fact that Ukraine is part of the European energy union, should significantly increase investors' appetite for investments in Ukrainian energy.

– Why?

– Because the synchronization of our energy system with the European one means that we work according to European rules that are clear to investors.

It's not just the physical connection of power systems. These are certain standards of transparency; these are certain market rules.

For investors, this is a perfectly clear set of rules and procedures that are familiar to them, which apply in Europe, the United States, Canada, in all developed Western countries. This is the first.

Secondly, the affiliation of the Ukrainian energy system to the European energy union significantly increases its stability and opens new opportunities for the development of renewable energy, as well as the creation of the necessary balancing capacity, which was lacking even before the war.

– That is, there will be no return to the old pre-war life, when in fact the Ukrainian energy sector was a club of several oligarchs?

– Yes. Some fish in the aquarium may seem large, but when you release them into the ocean, they can no longer dominate there.

When we talk about the Ukrainian market, which was isolated from the European one, such a market could have been still dominated by a few players.

But when the Ukrainian market becomes an integral part of the vast European energy space, the situation will change – no player in Ukraine could dominate the scale of the entire European market.

Therefore, Ukraine will face demonopolization and deoligarchization of the energy market. This will allow European players to enter the Ukrainian market, but at the same time provide opportunities for our exporters, especially Energoatom, to develop European markets.

And we, as the power system operator, will work to ensure that in the coming years, the capacity of the interstate power transmission lines will increase from 2 GW to 4-5 GW.

We started implementing such projects before the war, and we will definitely finish them. And much faster than planned.

– Finally – the question about our aggressive neighbours. We already talked about the myth that Ukraine will not survive without energy consolidation with Russia and Belarus. But how will they work without us?

– Yes, we have in practice refuted the statements, including by the Belarusian side, that Ukraine is critically dependent on imports of energy resources, including electricity, from Belarus. The same applies to Russia, with which we have not traded at all for more than a year. 

As for them, first of all, Belarus will simply have nowhere to sell excess electricity without the possibility of any connection with the Ukrainian market, and also in the conditions when the Baltic states also close the opportunities to export from the Belarusian nuclear power plant to their countries.

And this makes the project of the Belarusian nuclear power plant economically completely impractical. In fact, it is money buried in the ground.

For Russia, the disconnection of the Ukrainian energy system is a strategic loss. Russia's energy strategy explicitly states that they will strongly oppose the disconnection of neighbouring countries from their energy systems. These are primarily Ukraine and the Baltic countries.

Therefore, for Russia, I think this is a very serious geopolitical blow.

And from the first day of the war, when we disconnected from their power system, we said very clearly in which direction their power system should go. That says it all, I think.

Interviewed by Yurii Panchenko,

Editor of the European Pravda