What is the likelihood of an attack on Ukraine from Transnistria? And what is the future of this separatist region when the Russian-Ukrainian war ends?

The Member of the Parliament of Moldova, Oazu Nantoi, answered these questions and more in his interview with "EuroPravda."

In particular, he is sure that the defeat of Putin's regime gives Moldova a chance to integrate Transnistria peacefully. Besides, the MP told how Russian propaganda works in Moldova. And also - how Russian propaganda was affected by granting Moldova EU candidate status.

"Putin may order to attack Ukraine from Transnistria"

- Does Moldova understand Ukraine in times of war?

- There is a tendency: countries that support Ukraine are democratic. Therefore, the majority of Moldovan citizens certainly support Ukraine and condemn the Russian aggression.

But Moldovan society got influenced by Russian propaganda for decades. Part of our society "eats" the clichés of Russian propaganda. It exists in Moldova. And some people try to abuse it.

- We will talk about the society of Moldova later on. First, let us talk about Transnistria. Can we be sure that Russia will not open a new front to attack Ukraine from there?

- We cannot be sure if we talk about any political processes.

To answer this question, I will tell you what happened in 2014 simultaneously with the "Novorossiya" project. Then, in southern Moldova, the Russian Federation launched the project of the so-called "Republic of Budjak." It had to include villages from the Odesa region and Moldova, inhabited mainly by Gagauz people, with access to Transnistria. On February 2, 2014, a sham referendum was organized in our country (as you can see, the Putin regime uses the same tools everywhere).

Even then, in early 2014, it became clear that Moldova was threatened by new aggression.

In 2015, Russia tried establishing the so-called Bessarabian People's Republic in the south of the Odesa region. They came up with a separatist project, "Southern Bessarabia."

Later, I read how your ex-head of the SBU, Vasyl Hrytsak, said how significant it was for Russia to destroy the bridge across the liman near Zatoka to make the so-called republic happen.

Since February 24, 2022, I have been keeping in mind the year 2014 and following the events around Odesa and in Transnistria. Russia is returning to its old plans. When they destroyed the bridge, it became obvious that Russia was preparing a landing through southern Bessarabia with access to Moldova and the left bank of the Dnister river.

- I will return to a possible attack. Can Russian troops stationed in Transnistria attack Ukraine?

- It is possible only if Putin's criminal regime tries to organise a full-frontal attack on Odesa. Then Putin, who has gone mad, may order the Operational Unit of Russian troops to backstab Ukraine from Moldova simultaneously.

So far, the opposite is going on. Ukraine resists. We all saw that Russian troops were forced to leave Snake Island.

"Transnistrians are not motivated to fight"

- Are there forces in Transnistria ready to attack Ukraine?

- I want to clarify a fundamental point here.

In 1993, Ukraine and Russia signed an agreement on military-technical cooperation. Russia was able to freely rotate personnel and move military equipment and weapons across Ukraine to Transnistria.

- So we helped them?

- No. You turned a blind eye to it.

In May 2015, Poroshenko broke this agreement. Russia had problems primarily with its personnel rotation because they could transport soldiers only via the Chisinau airport (illegally, as tourists, but Moldova did not agree to this. - EP).

There was another problem. The officers sent to the left bank did not want to serve there. When the luggage of such an officer was checked at Chisinau airport, he demonstratively put his military ID on top. And he was sent back.

To find a way out of this situation, the Operational Unit of Russian troops began recruiting local residents born on the river Dniester's left bank and obtained a Russian passport there.

These people went to serve out of hopelessness because they live in a depressed region without jobs.

But on February 24, it stopped working. I know people fled from there to the right bank.

With all responsibility, no Transnistrians are willing to fight either with Ukraine or Moldova.

It's not just about ordinary people. Their so-called leaders have gone to ground because they do not want war.

But they will not make decisions. Putin will. And if Putin tries to attack Odesa, the risks may become real.

- Do they have enough weapons in Transnistria for an attack?

- This is a degrading region. There is no special military potential there.

In the village of Volodymyrivka, there are 17 T-64 tanks from Soviet times. There are BM-21 Grad systems that were assembled right there.

But most importantly, if something happens (hostilities between Transnistria and Ukraine. - EP), this so-called army will simply run away.

"Transnistrian conflict" turned into business"

- Why doesn't Moldova solve the Transnistria issue by force?

- To answer this, I should explain what Transnistria is.

In 1992 (the war on the Dniester broke out. - EP) people on the left bank, deeply Soviet, were way too impressed by "Romanophobia". We didn't know the term "hybrid warfare" back then. That was it.

Moscow propaganda scared them that Moldova was going to join Romania. Panic consolidated the residents of the left bank of the Dniester, and the Kremlin took advantage of it. Supposedly to avoid it, the Moscow-controlled 14th Army distributed weapons to the "territorial self-defence."

But 30 years have passed since then, and the so-called "Transnistrian conflict" has turned into business.

Russia supplies them with gas, for which Tiraspol does not pay Gazprom a penny. The gas fee is collected from the local population and companies, although the tariffs are many times lower than on the right bank.

The collected money sponsors this enclave and also goes to "offshores." Nothing new. Just business.

The left bank is an unrecognized "grey zone." No one recognizes the so-called Transnistrian citizenship.

So people need to get second, real citizenship to solve their issues.

Russia tried to passportise the left bank to then say: "This is our territory. Our citizens are there." But in 2014, Moldova got a visa-free regime with the EU. Since then residents of the left bank have been applying for Moldovan citizenship massively.

Recently, when the left bank found our about mobilization, people simply rushed to the right bank.

The census of the Soviet Union in 1989 showed 750,000 people on the left bank. It is not even 300,000 today.

- I will ask again whether it is possible to settle the conflict by using force.

- Impossible. It involves many components - citizenship, business, interpersonal ties, family ties... We do not need Hollywood scenarios here when everything has got so much together.

Moldovan society has already "forgotten" about Transnistria. Surveys show that it is far down the list of problems that bother people of Moldova.

The main way to resolve the conflict and the main guarantee of security for the Republic of Moldova is the military defeat of Putin's regime. After that, in partnership with Ukraine and with our friends from the European Union, we can organize a peaceful dismantling of this regime, primarily its power component. We can eliminate the military presence there and integrate the left shore that will not resist. Because people have long been tired of this chaos, of this depressed zone in which they are forced to be.

Putin's military defeat would be the best security guarantee for Moldova.

I was asked on TV: "Does neutrality protect us?" My answer is "Yes, same as a prayer." 

"No chances of a palace coup in the Kremlin. They are all slaves"

- Will Ukraine win?

- Yes.

- What do you consider Ukraine's victory?

- Not only liberation of the occupied territories. Putin's regime is revanchist with nuclear weapons. Russian society is crazy about Great Russian chauvinism.

Therefore, Ukraine's victory should lead to the collapse of Putin's regime in Russia and its de-imperialization. Such as the denazification that Germany underwent after the Second World War.

Russia will not become a democratic country. At least, it has to go through defeat to realize the criminality of its mentality.

- Let's talk about our victory. Does it also mean retaking Crimea and expulsing the Black Sea Fleet from there?

- Of course.

- How to make it happen when Putin has nuclear weapons?

- As far as I understand, the United States has reported they had prepared a response scenario if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons.

- Do you think this is real?

- I do not consider it impossible, unfortunately.

On June 2, 2020, Putin signed the decree "Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence." Even then, he planned to use nuclear blackmail, counting on the West to shudder and buckle.

I would also like to point out that on December 15, 2021, the former Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, which is now the Ministry of Propaganda, issued two crazy ultimatums to NATO and the United States - to return to 1997.

On February 4, Putin signed a joint statement with China at the Beijing Olympic Games opening.

In Putin's inflamed imagination, Ukraine was supposed to be just a stepping stone to a global restructuring of the world, where the United States would be left out. The Russian Federation, China, and other countries would divide the world among themselves.

However, after February 24, China distanced itself from Putin's regime and policies, destroying his plans because global restructuring is impossible without China and India.

Yes, I understand that nuclear weapons are a real threat. But various conflict situations arise in Russia as well. Anything may happen.

Although I personally do not expect palace coups there. Their so-called elite is all slaves.

They are not capable of anything except eating from their owner's hands.

Therefore, the necessary condition for global peace and authoritarian regimes to no longer resort to such methods is what the Ukrainian army is doing.

"Situation changed when Ukraine and Moldova were granted EU candidate status"

- In Moldova, there are many pro-Russian citizens. Has it changed after February 24?

- The Russian aggression has led to the polarization of society. It is possible to have a wide range of opinions under normal conditions. But in times of war, the situation becomes black and white.

Unfortunately, there are regions in Moldova where the influence of Russian propaganda is obvious. But many things began to change on the historic day when Moldova and Ukraine were granted EU candidate status.

It will be a фdifficult and long process. The key condition for success is the military defeat of Putin's regime, which will end all speculation about our path.

Within the Republic of Moldova, the majority supports the European perspective and believes that Putin's Russia committed an act of aggression against Ukraine.

But the fifth column tries to "rock the boat."

You and I are sitting in the parliament building and hear screaming from time to time. These are so-called protests.

- Is it real?

- In reality, these people have come to work. A night in a tent costs some money. A day on the square, chanting "Jos Maia Sandu," that is, "Go away!" has its price, too.

You can hear anti-Ukrainian things from the same center that coordinates these people. This is our fifth column, but the situation is under control.

We wish victory to Ukraine. This is the guarantee of our survival.

Interviewed by Sergiy Sydorenko
Filmed by Volodymyr Oliinyk
"European Pravda" from Chisinau