Katarína Mathernová, Ambassador of the EU to Ukraine, began her work in Kyiv exactly a year ago, in September 2023. She has proven to understand our country perhaps better than any other high-ranking EU official. Over the past year, she has also learned Ukrainian to the point where she no longer needs an interpreter.

But above all, she has a genuine sense of what is happening here in Kyiv, especially with the onset of winter.

In this interview marking the anniversary of the start of her tenure, we focused on the upcoming winter of 2024, which looks set to be a very challenging one; whether Ukraine could join the EU by 2030; and the export of electricity from the EU to Ukraine.

The ambassador also revealed details of a little-known scheme for supplying weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces using frozen Russian assets.

"You have broken the matrix"

A year ago, you said you had set yourself three goals: to win the war for Ukraine, to win the peace for Ukraine, and to communicate with everyone in Ukraine. How is this working out?

We are still very much in the war, and my goal was a little bit less ambitious than to win the war – it was to do everything I can to support Ukraine in its war effort.

The European Union has actually done a lot. And I think that we crossed a lot of our previous boundaries.

We have made huge progress on the EU integration front.

I think that what is excellent is that in December of last year, the leaders gave the political green light to the opening of negotiations and after a lot of technical work, in June the negotiations were officially opened. This is actually a very compressed time schedule when it comes to European processes.

And the third goal that I had was communicating both with my G7 partners and the EU countries and then reaching out to civil society, media, the citizenry – I have tried my best to explain the EU, through your outlet and others.

I have tried to travel as much as I could – maybe it's never enough – to other parts of Ukraine to really try to make the EU felt by Ukrainian citizens.

On the subject of joining the European Union, did you expect the process to move at such a pace?

Ukraine, really four days after the full-scale invasion, applied to the EU.

There is such momentum and political momentum in Ukraine, but it also kicked off a momentum in EU member states and in Brussels, that…

You have broken the matrix!

I very much hope that we will continue doing so.

As I said several times in previous interviews, I think that the goal that [European Council] President [Charles] Michel mentioned of Ukraine joining the EU by the end of this decade is not unrealistic.

So is 2030 realistic?

I think it is realistic.

It’s not only the technical process of the negotiations, which does take time. You also have to have the political ratification by all member states, because accepting a new member means a change in the EU treaty. So it has to be ratified in whichever format is required by each of the member states, and that always takes time. In the case of the 2004 enlargement, it took about a year and a half.

"The EU has actually been working on winter preparedness"

2030 feels so far away. We can't plan that far ahead now. We just need to get through this winter. What can we expect this winter?

Winter will not be easy.

But in the same way as "you have broken the matrix" in the speed of EU integration, the same thing has happened with resilience.

The resilience that you have will help us all together to go through this winter without major dislocation and disruption.

It's clear that there will also be some form of assistance from the EU too, right?

We actually have been working on winter preparedness for a number of months, quite busily.

First of all, there are active discussions with ENTSO-E – which is the operator of the European continental grid, to which Ukraine and Moldova are connected – about increasing the capacity of the interconnection.

There is currently a regulatory limit which limits the export to Ukraine at 1.7 gigawatts, even though there is technical capacity to go above 2 gigawatts. There are now discussions about increasing this regulatory limit with the existing lines.

The other thing that we have done is allocated €200 million in grants – half of it through the Energy Community Secretariat in Vienna and half of it through [the German development bank] KfW. One [part] to support Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian grid operator; and one for the repair of the thermal power plants, because that’s where you can get the highest amount of gigawatts in the quickest amount of time; and a little bit for the repair of renewable energy sources.

And what I would like to specifically mention, because this is one of the unsung heroes, is the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, which is the logistics and transport channel for all the big energy equipment to Ukraine, not only from the EU – from many, many other partners as well.

So we actually do the bowels, the pipes on getting the equipment here, and we are paying for it. That's around another hundred million altogether.

This is also the mechanism through which we have sent over 1,000 large industrial generators and are now helping with the transportation of actual big turbines to help with the winter preparedness.

You mentioned Ukrenergo. We in Ukraine don't quite know how much support there is now from our Western partners, given that the corporate governance structure of Ukrenergo has been dismantled and Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, who had an impeccable reputation and brought Ukraine into ENTSO-E, has been dismissed. What is the EU’s position?

I think that we were very clear. I signed a letter with the business ombudsman and our colleagues from EBRD and IFC about the need to maintain corporate governance standards to continue getting the financing.

We have very good discussions now with the First Deputy Prime Minister and her team and the Ministry of Energy. Without getting into details, I think we have a very solid basis to agree on a reboot of the supervisory board.

The EU expects us to reboot the supervisory board, is that correct?

To reboot the independent members. You now have three members missing, and the term of one expires in early December.

So this is a good opportunity for an overall reboot of the supervisory board.

"The situation is not going to be catastrophic"

Despite all the EU assistance, such as generators and additional turbines, there’s one thing we can’t predict – the Russian army's strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Have you made any forecasts about how tough this winter might be? Will there be 8-hour blackouts, or 12, or even 14 hours?

I would certainly expect that there are going to be some blackouts. But from all the discussions that I’ve been having and the scenarios that we have had, the situation is not going to be catastrophic.

It’s going to be difficult, it’s not going to be a pleasant winter.

Particularly vulnerable are the three big cities – Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa – and the areas where there are towns and cities which have district heating, that's also a vulnerability. But I don't think that we are looking at a catastrophic scenario. I hope I will not be proven wrong.

The expectation for this winter proves again how important it is to really invest in distributed, decentralised energy sources throughout the country.

So we should prioritise…

Small generation across the country.

And to get local communities interested in that, local businesses.

This is not something that only big energy companies and the state can invest in. You can have businesses from other sectors actually investing in local production. And in the mix of production, you can have [energy produced from] biomass, geothermal [energy] with battery storage and renewable energy. You can have a mixture of different sources, and that, typically, is more resilient.

Not all diplomatic missions in Ukraine are that optimistic. The UN has even done a study suggesting that there could be an exodus of refugees from Ukraine due to the harsh winter, with potentially up to 5 million additional people heading to the EU. Is the EU preparing for such a scenario?

I was expressing my hope that we are not going to have a catastrophic scenario, but there is no question we will have a difficult winter.

I will be here, so I will live it first-hand.

The EU has proven its ability to adjust and provide support, whether it was to the millions of refugees that crossed the border or through the Temporary Protection Directive, invoked for the first time ever and put in place to allow people to earn a living and have a decent life while they wait to return to Ukraine.

Yes, we are looking at various scenarios, and I think we will be prepared.

"You actually have poetic justice"

The most important issue for us is not energy, but the war. It's clear that the main assistance to Ukraine comes not from the EU, but from the EU member states themselves. What is the EU’s role in backing the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

This is a very positive and somewhat surprising story, perhaps.

This is an area where High Representative Borrell [Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy] personally deserves thanks for very quickly after the full-scale invasion putting, really rolling, in place the European Peace Facility, which is a mechanism to incentivise and reimburse member states for weapons delivery.

And now Hungary has blocked it.

Over €6 billion has been disbursed and weapons delivered to Ukraine from this mechanism.

Altogether, it's around €45 billion of weapons deliveries from EU and member states.

When we talk about Russian frozen assets, everybody immediately asks and jumps into the €50 billion loan. But what the EU has done, we legislated already half a year ago about the use of the proceeds – the windfall profits from the frozen assets.

The first €1.4 billion was disbursed in August, already a month ago, to several member states for new weapons deliveries, because this didn't have to go through unanimous approval. This was coming from the EU budget, so several member states received it.

But what is much more important is that €400 million of this amount is going to the Ukrainian defence industry system developed by Denmark. Denmark was the first country that has been contracting the delivery of the Bohdana howitzers.

So we have entrusted €400 million through Denmark to the Ukrainian defence industry, which is, I think, quite a sizable sum.

Was this the interest from the frozen Russian assets?

You actually have poetic justice, right? These are Russian assets that pay for [Ukrainian] howitzers.

The plan is that from the next tranche, there is going to be an even bigger amount that will go directly to the Ukrainian defence industry. Because you produce [items] of the same quality for less money, quicker, you cut away the transport and logistics costs, and then the companies pay taxes [to Ukraine], so you are helping the economy.

This is something I’m particularly proud of because I was one of the very strong advocates of this system. And I’m very happy it actually is happening now.

So now Denmark is using the €400 million of Russian frozen assets proceeds received from the European Union, together with its own national resources, to place big orders to the Ukrainian defence industry.

"Understanding in the EU has only happened as a result of the full-scale invasion"

Ursula von der Leyen has officially announced the members of the European Commission, which now includes a Commissioner for the Defence Industry. What is this position all about?

It's very good that we are going to have a Commissioner.

It doesn't mean that the Commission will now be in charge of defence, because that belongs to the member states and to processes among member states. But the Commissioner can play a crucial role in helping stimulate the European defence industry, in the interconnections among them.

We have had difficulties in the European industry mobilising to produce sufficient quantities, whether it's ammunition, artillery, other systems…

We were promised a million shells – and nothing.

…for example!

So the commissioner's role will be crucial in connecting the dots.

Another update: in the new European Commission, there will be a Commissioner for Enlargement. The position was previously titled "Commissioner for Enlargement Negotiations". Does this mean the European Commission expects the negotiations to reach a conclusion?

You are a real connoisseur of Brussels lingo! Congratulations on picking up on this nuance. Indeed, this is an important nuance.

Prior to that, there was a Directorate-General for Enlargement and a Commissioner for Enlargement. Then when enlargement was not really on the political agenda, it became "for Enlargement Negotiations". And now we are going back to Enlargement.

This very much reflects the shift in the political consensus or the inevitability of enlargement coming. And this is something that has only happened, sadly, as a result of the full-scale invasion and all the events that followed.

It's a full Commissioner for Enlargement. The Directorate-General that was until now covering Western Balkans, Türkiye, Eastern neighbourhood and Southern neighbourhood will be split.

The Southern neighbourhood will be separately under a new Commissioner for the Mediterranean.

We are also expecting news regarding our EU accession – negotiations and the opening of chapters. What will happen next?

Right now we are undergoing the so-called screening process. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Olha Stefanishyna is in Brussels this week, and they are discussing screening, which means comparing the state of Ukrainian legislation, institutions and practices in a specific area compared to the EU acquis. They are discussing the famous Chapters 23-24 – fundamental rights, the rule of law, anti-corruption, that difficult set of areas.

That screening will continue until this autumn, until all of the different chapters are looked at and there is a realistic view of what are the gaps between the Ukrainian system, Ukrainian legislation, Ukrainian institutions and those of the European Union.

And then, hopefully, at the beginning of the next presidency, which is the incoming Polish presidency, there will be an opening of these different clusters.

Our government is currently saying that we want to open all the clusters. Is this feasible?

I would not want to jump the gun and commit to that. I think it's going to depend a little bit on the outcome of the screening process – what is realistic and what is not.

But I tell everybody – whether it's here or whether it's in Brussels or other capitals – that Ukraine is definitely ready for negotiations.

Is it possible to join the EU while the war is ongoing?

First, I would like to say that it's remarkable – the reform progress and the reform steps Ukraine is taking while fighting the hot war.

I would very much like to encourage, and do encourage, our Ukrainian counterparts that we continue that process.

This question, while very legitimate, is a little bit theoretical for now. We'll just have to see how things develop because there is still a lot of technical, legislative, institutional work to do.

We will be able to address it, maybe, in one of our next interviews. You only interview me once a year, so let’s see – in a year we'll know more.

Then we need to set some KPIs. Next year, when we meet again, we must check whether we've been able to progress as quickly as we hoped. What are your plans for the next year?

To give all the support we can for the negotiations process, for the accession talks.

To do that, we are now launching a major programme to help the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, the Verkhovna Rada [Ukraine’s parliament] and the sectoral ministries on European integration.

This is the largest ever that we've conceived of really such comprehensive support. So I hope that goes well and it's going to be really useful for the talks.

My goal is, I don't want to put a number on it, but I very much hope that we'll be able to open at least half of the clusters.

Sergiy Sydorenko,

European Pravda, Editor