European Pravda previously interviewed Jan Lipavský in February 2022, just two weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion. The Czech Foreign Minister was among the Western officials visiting Ukraine daily back then, but those efforts could not prevent the outbreak of a full-scale war. 

Unlike many European politicians, however, Lipavský came to Ukraine in February 2022 with more than words of support. Anticipating the invasion, Czechia was one of the first countries to start supplying Ukraine with artillery shells. 

Now, in 2024, a significant portion of large-calibre ammunition deliveries once again involves Prague. The so-called Czech Initiative is collecting ammunition worldwide to sustain the combat capabilities of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. 

The minister has good news about the continuation of this effort. 

This interview also touches on the influence of Donald Trump on EU support for Ukraine.

"We need to convince Trump’s team"

Right before your visit to Kyiv, Russia raised the stakes,  using a new missile type. Do you expect a new escalation now?

I hope there is not another escalation.

There is enough escalation from the Russian side now. We need to do everything we can to prevent them from another escalation.

There is one lesson: we need to continue to support Ukraine. Because it's not only about Ukraine, it's about what is allowed in this world. It is, basically, about whether imperial war for territory is allowed in the 21st century.

A major change is to take place on 21 January – Trump will become the President of the United States. What do you expect from Ukraine?

We know one thing about Donald Trump: he is a tough guy.

If we, as Europe, want to prove something to him, or maybe to convince him about something, we need to be tough too.

Ukraine is tough. Ukraine is so tough that it was not three days, not even three months, and now I'm sure it won’t be three years for Russia to be able to subjugate it.

So I expect toughness.

But let's wait until what the final composition of Trump’s  administration will be. We know many names, we hear some speculation. Some names have even already been dropped. It means that we need to wait and see.

To some degree, we know what we are expecting from Donald Trump. He promised a strong America. Maybe we’ll see new tariffs.

We will need to convince them that the war between Russia and Ukraine is not only about Russia and about Ukraine. This is a global affair with implications for food security, and implications for Indo-Pacific security. Especially now, with North Korean soldiers also attacking the Ukrainian army. This is something we really need to be able to explain and act on accordingly.

You say that Ukraine should be tough. Won't it backfire?

No, absolutely, not.

Toughness is respected in the world we are living in.

You’ve recently said in the UK that you do not know whether the US aid to Ukraine will continue. Donald Trump could flip a switch and the next day Ukraine will have nothing at all. Could you elaborate on that?

Things take time.

Look, now with Biden's administration providing the rest of the agreed support to Ukraine, for a period of time Ukraine will have those resources at its disposal.

And if there is a discontinuation of this help, then Europe must step in.

Is Europe ready to replace the United States in terms of military support to Ukraine?

We are now roughly 50-50, maybe the US is giving a little bit more. But, of course, it's a different kind of system.

It won't be easy for Europe, but Europe will be pushed by the new administration to spend more on defence. This might be part of that.

If we want to show Donald Trump that we are tough, we have to be ready to do so.

"In 2025, there is a lot of ammunition to be used in Ukraine"

What will happen to the so-called Czech initiative, or armament initiative, which supplies ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

This year, we promised to deliver or we proposed to the international community, if sponsored, that we can deliver half a million heavy calibre ammunition rounds to Ukraine. We will deliver.

I can tell you, we will deliver by the end of this year.

I don't know the number that has been delivered and what remains. But the people responsible for this initiative say that it will be delivered.

Prime Minister Fiala together with the Danish and Dutch Prime Ministers said they wanted to continue it in 2025.

We will announce the details. It's clear that Ukraine will also need ammunition in 2025. So we should continue.

This initiative is mostly focused on stocks somewhere outside Europe. Are these stockpiles still full?

Not exclusively, but, of course, it used the situation when the current production was not so strong. So we identified the stockpiles around the world, bought them, refurbished in certain cases to make sure that everything works properly and then sent it to Ukraine.

So Ukrainian soldiers can defend themselves from Russian attacks.

We will need to ramp up production.

Ukraine is also ramping up its own production.

Many different projects are happening around the world, so definitely this must happen.

But in 2025, we see a lot of ammunition around the world that is already made and which could be used for this purpose.

"Russia spreads fear in society"

Is there an understanding in the West that this war is global?

That differs depending on how you look at it, but definitely this is the message I deliver very often.

This is a global confrontation.

Putin made himself some kind of axis of evil – with Tehran, Pyongyang and economic enablement by China. China is allowing economically the whole thing to go on. We are quite aware of that.

You are quite aware, but do your counterparts in other countries understand that, too? 

It's very different. It depends on to whom you speak and at which forum.

It's important that we have quite a strong NATO position. The EU is united on many things – sanction regimes, for example.

Russia is responsible for 80% of disinformation in Europe. We have to understand that not only the disinformation war, but hybrid activities are getting more and more serious.

Just recently, we had one person who was trying to commit an arson attack on a bus in Czechia, not to destroy a bus, not to cause big damage as such, but to spread fear in society.

We are working on resilience, on measures to contain Russian influence.

I'm pretty sure that we are already in WWIII. Just many countries do not want to face the reality and they do not want to recognise it, do they?

In the 90s, the era of globalisation and optimism started – "The end of history", as the famous book called it.

But now we know that the story is different. We are in a phase of de-globalisation now. The new blocs are emerging.

We don't know what the boundaries exactly are.

There are some contests going on, so I would describe it as a global confrontation. That's the way I would describe the current phase.

A confrontation, not war?

The war is going on here, in Ukraine. The information war is happening in our Internet or media sphere. The hybrid war is going on in Europe, that's clear.

It depends on what you want to describe.

"The appeasement of a dictator doesn’t work, but it's not the only lesson"

People in some major Western countries are so afraid of thinking and talking about global conflict that they can even compromise [Ukrainian interests, of course] just not to have this global war. You know well from the history of your country that it's not the first time that something like that has happened.

I use this comparison very often and I refer to the year 1938 quite a lot.

What was that about in 1938? It was about the demand of Adolf Hitler that Czechoslovakia would give Germany Sudetenland.

There were so many speeches by Adolf Hitler where he confirms that this was his "last demand." Just give me Sudetenland, because my fellow Germans are living there. I want to unite them into Germany.

But he pushed, and the Munich Agreement was exactly about giving him what he asked for and it was dictated to Czechoslovakia that it would be stripped of Sudetenland and it would go to Germany.

But it did not end anything. It was just the very beginning.

We know that the following year, World War II started with the German attack on Poland.

This is not the only lesson from that story – that appeasement doesn’t work.

The other lesson, which I am emphasising more and more when I speak with my Western partners, is that the Czechoslovakian nation felt betrayed. Because Czechoslovakia was a very modern country back then. It was rich and had good relations with France, the UK and many other countries.

But we were not protected by our partners when we were supposed to be.

If the West leaves Ukraine, dictating that it gives something to Russia, some concessions without approval here in Ukraine, it would create a feel of betrayal. That's something much more dangerous. These kinds of hard feelings will last not for years, but for decades.

Do you see a likelihood that the United States will force Ukraine to give up?

I don't know, but I'm warning about this kind of scenario with the Munich Agreement example.

"We have to prevent Ukraine from falling"

Is Putin ready to use nukes?

I can answer this difficult question differently.

Czechia is a member of NATO – a member of the Alliance, which is also a nuclear alliance.

In the case of nuclear escalation, NATO has its plans.

For Czechia, it is NATO which deals with the issue of nuclear deterrence and with possible reactions to the situation, when such a scenario happens.

The frontline is currently not stable. Unfortunately, for quite some time, we have seen territorial losses village by village. Do you see any good news any time soon?

I'm not a military expert, so I don't comment on specific events in the war.

I understand that the situation is not easy.

I thank all the brave men and women protecting Europe on the front line in trenches.

And I know that as a Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs I have to motivate not only my country to continue with all the military, diplomatic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but also to motivate the other actors who stand on the right side of history.

What is the general feeling in the EU? You went to the Foreign Ministers’ Council just recently. What was your feeling there? Danger?

I don't think that there is this kind of feeling.

There is a feeling that we have to continue our help. We have to help Ukraine come through the winter, which won’t be easy.

We have to continue with not only military aid, but also with humanitarian and development aid, which means sending material for hospitals or winterisation.

It won't be only about medical equipment but also heaters to help the civilian population to sustain themselves through the winter. It's about Ukraine as a whole society. We need to continue with that.

All the other scenarios – if Ukraine collapses and is given to Russia, or subjugated by Russia – aren't good. We have to prevent it.

It's not only about helping Ukraine, but also working on complex European security.

Do you personally feel that there is a real, not rhetorical, but real understanding in Europe that Ukraine will join the EU?

Yes it is. It has to be. We are helping you.

Ukraine has to work on that. Many laws have to be adopted. You need some reforms, some changes. But there is a strong will from the government. And we advocate it from within.

Some people say in Ukraine that it's just impossible.  Hungary, for example, will hinder that.

I would view the situation in a different way.

I would say, there is something, which needs to be fulfilled for Ukraine to join the EU. What is the first step? I would look at that and be working very hard on that.

This is actually happening right now.

The accession process is moving forward and there is a lot of hard work.

Given the scale of work Ukraine has to do, what is a realistic assessment? When is it possible for Ukraine to join the EU?

I never say a date when it comes to enlargement, because it's not only a technical process, but also a political one. That's quite hard to influence.

Again, there is no single country, which would be technically ready to join the EU. You can be technically ready and then you can have a much more different discussion.

You have so many friends in Europe ready to help you with that.

Sergiy Sydorenko,

Editor, European Pravda

Video by Volodymyr Oliinyk