The Russia-West talks are not about guarantees, says Mr. Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs and co-founder of the Center for National Resilience and Development, in his article More Dangerous than Invasion: What Ukraine Should Expect in its Standoff with Russia.

NATO cannot give Russia any guarantees as it will undermine its reputation, making the Alliance come off as weak and incapable of dealing with modern challenges.

Mr. Klimkin goes on to underscore that today all guarantees are rendered futile. First, because Russia is manipulating terminology. Second, it has breached all the guarantees one could possibly imagine, including those relating to the legal and international domain featured in the bilateral agreements.

He adds that Russia is seeking a justification of its actions, -- an "indulgence" for the sake of "protecting Russia and its security."

At the same time, it is clear that some western countries are prioritizing the policy of "non-provoking" or are trying to "calm Russia down". After all, a new balance between the U.S. and Russia is being formed.

Ukraine, Mr. Klimkin notes, would like to believe that the ongoing negotiations boil down to the threat of military intervention. To that end, Russia’s military build-up at Ukraine’s border indeed forced us to realize that we ended up in an entirely new reality. The fact that the negotiations are extremely fast-paced proves that this perception is irreversible. 

Ultimately, however, it is not about Ukraine-related compromises, or their potential form. We are talking about a new world set-up and priorities. It is also a security matter for the West, coupled with its image of a potent world player. Pre-empting military operations in Ukraine is, undoubtedly, its priority as well.

Mr. Klimkin adds that Russia’s response to the West and Ukraine will differ dramatically. The former, according to him, will be strategic, i.e. the attempt to undermine its internal unity by preferring some countries to others as well as placing military equipment in strategically-sensitive locations. Meanwhile, the latter will be tactical: The Kremlin will take its time to find a chance to destabilize Ukraine from within, justifying its intervention. 

Thanks to its negotiations on par with the U.S., Russia is able to prove to the EU its irrelevance when it comes to strategic stability. For the EU, it is effectively the moment of truth, the price it is paying for its reluctance to build up its own security potential.

Many would find it paradoxical, yet Ukraine is responsible for what happens in the country. We can put forward all the initiatives we want, yet no one will treat them seriously until we show our desire and capacity to become a success story.

Read more in Mr. Klimkin’s op-ed in Ukrainian More Dangerous than an Invasion: What Ukraine Should Expect from its Standoff with Russia.