The Normandy meeting, which took place on January 26th in Paris after a long break, turned out to be unexpectedly long. Yet its only concrete outcome is that the parties have agreed to meet again in two weeks.

In her op-ed Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Foundations’ analyst, Maria Zolkina sheds light on what happened behind the scenes of the meeting and whether its results are positive for Ukraine.

The meeting had been prepared and carried out in a complex international environment, which, however, has not crossed the red line yet. Although the talks in Geneva were fruitless, Russia and the U.S. continue talking with each other, albeit preparing for different scenarios of the Ukraine-Russia escalation. 

The stakes are extremely high as we are talking about NATO’s expansion, key issues pertaining to collective security, and Russia’s attempts to reshape the spheres of influence in Europe. 

In such an environment, both the Normandy Format and the Minsk Agreement are of secondary importance. Furthermore, the former ends up reflecting the logic and the dynamics of the Geneva talks or "the collective west." Accordingly, if there is no basis for a Russia-West agreement on the highest level, then the Normandy Format is rendered futile as well.  

And vice versa. If the U.S. and western countries find common ground, this might mean that Ukraine will have to make concessions relating to NATO in the Normandy format.

This is the reason why the new Normandy Format differs dramatically from the logic and dynamics of its predecessor. 

Yet, it seems like in its endeavor to keep up with the Russia-American security talks, the Ukrainian government failed to grasp this difference.

Besides, Kyiv shows that it does not entirely refuse to make concessions, which makes changes in the Normandy Format quite dangerous.

Following the election of a new government in Germany that resulted in the stepdown of Merkel’s team that had been dominating the negotiations since 2014, France is trying to take the reins. For instance, it puts forward initiatives without seeking Ukraine’s agreement first. 

To sum up, although the Normandy Format’s outcome did not result in a breakthrough, the fact that Ukraine publicly rejected Russia’s key demand is a good sign. 

So far that outcome could be considered safe, yet Ukraine will not be able to operate like this for too long.

Read Ms. Zolkina’s op-ed in Ukrainian Dangerous Normandy: Who Has Put Pressure on Yermak During His Visit to Paris. Russian version is also available