It happened. 

Even though many doubted that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would recognize the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, he did precisely that. 

Watch our video on YouTube to find out what that means or read an article by European Pravda editor Sergiy Sydorenko Minsk-3, Soft Sanctions and Other Ramifications of Independence.

Putin was forced to recognize the independence of Donbas since all other options effectively fell through. Hence he risked and took his opponents by surprise.

This decision means that the Minsk Agreements are now defunct. Besides, Putin gave up on the idea of turning Ukraine into a federation where the republics would have a veto vote, effectively paralyzing Ukraine. However, Moscow will likely keep trying to impose a direct dialogue between Kyiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk while playing "the peacekeeper" role.

It also means that the escalation in Donbas might take place whenever. Furthemore, there is a risk of armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine outside of Donbas, including a large-scale one. Moscow can accuse Kyiv at any time should there be a clash. It might also self-shell – a move that Russia has used many times.

Finally, Russia receives key geopolitical leverage. It sends a warning to Moldova that it might recognize Transnistria in response to Maia Sandu’s pro-Western policy. And thinks that it can preclude Ukraine from acceding to NATO. This, however, is yet to be seen.

So, in which borders of the rogue republics did Russia recognize them? Those originally controlled by the Kremlin or the entire region? Neither the documents signed by Putin nor the agreements on friendship with the "republics" mention it, meaning that Russia can launch provocations on the line of contact, moving it around whimsically.

This is what is happening in Georgia at the border with its self-proclaimed "Southern Ossetia", which is likewise completely controlled by Russia. The administrative border is being moved all the time inside the country. Tbilisi has no idea how to react as it wants to avoid an open conflict with Russia’s soldiers safeguarding the border.

It is also not accidental that the recognition of the republics took place before a meeting between United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov that will take place on January 24th. The latter will use it as bargaining leverage during the negotiations. So will Putin when he meets U.S. President Joe Biden.

Russia will blackmail them by potentially recognizing the republics in their full borders, playing this trump card whenever necessary.

This bargain and threat will help Moscow preempt painful economic sanctions that Russia wants to avoid (even though the Russian Ambassador in Sweden does not think much of sanctions). 

Read more in Mr. Sydorenko’s article Minsk-3, Soft Sanctions and Other Ramifications of Independence.