Despite speculation, the Lukashenko regime has not joined Russia’s war with Ukraine. 

In his article Lukashenko’s Hesitation: How Belarus is Trying to Avoid Sending Troops to Ukraine, European Pravda’s editor Yurii Panchenko explains that the self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenka is trying his best to find a workaround and avoid invading Ukraine.

On the one hand, Lukashenko fully supports Russia’s aggression. On the other: he is attempting to justify Belarusian’s army avoidance of the conflict. 

One reason why is because Lukashenko has not managed to thwart Belarusian society’s resistance. Although after the 2020 protests the political opposition in Belarus has been eradicated, its society remains robust.

Last week, for example, Belarussians initiated a "railway war", tampering with the tracks and thus paralyzing its railway connections. 

They are also showing passive resistance. Since the beginning of the war, the number of people fleeing the country has increased sharply. More so since the Ministry of Defense has recently announced that it is summoning the reserve army for training. Although the Ministry tried to convince that this was a planned training and had nothing to do with the war in Ukraine, this claim only fueled the exodus. 

The Belarusian army’s preparedness to fight is also under question. Recently, info emerged that the Head of the Belarussian General Staff resigned because he had been unable to form military units to fight with Ukraine and thus had to resign.

Even though this document is most likely fake, there is a reason to believe that it reflects the actual sentiment. On social media, particularly in different groups where Belarusian soldiers communicate, the attitude to war in Ukraine is completely unlike in Russia.  

Besides, on March 3rd, Lukashenko announced that Belarus is deliberately being pushed into the war with Ukraine so that "we leave unprotected the rest of our borders. They will deal with us fast. We will be unable to return from Ukraine to defend", adding that "we will fight and die on our land."

All in all, it looks like Lukashenko is unready to fully submit to the Kremlin’s demands and is trying to find a loophole to take a minimal loss. Not least because Russia does not guarantee any financial support afterward. The western sanctions have already undermined its economy. In fact, more storms are awaiting it. As a result, Lukashenko’s desire to realize the Kremlin's whims is lower since Moscow’s capacity to fund the regime is diminishing.

Lukashenko thus faces a difficult dilemma. To partake in a guaranteed defeat together with the Russian Federation or to preserve an opportunity, however slim, to outlive the Russian regime and return to the multivector foreign policy.

Read more in Lukashenko’s Hesitation: How Belarus is Trying to Avoid Sending Troops to Ukraine.