The first round of the presidential election in France fell short of becoming sensational. In the upcoming second tour, the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will face Vladimir Putin’s far-right friend Marine Le Pen. 

Regardless of the outcome, Paris will see a major political overhaul, argues Nadiya Koval, Head of the Information and Analytical Department of the Ukrainian Institute, in her interview with the European Pravda’s editor Yuriy Panchenko.

The full interview in Ukrainian is available on EP’s YouTube channel. You can also read it via Arming Ukraine or Vetoing EU Path: What to Expect from France’s Elections.

The takeaways include: 

"France might increase its support of Ukraine. Especially since it is already helping Kyiv, even though it is not doing it in a very public manner."

"It is evident that Macron has become slightly more radical and no longer believes in a dialogue with Russia. Accordingly, if he wins, Paris might become more pro-Ukraine."

"The French business is slowly leaving the Russian market. The desire to remain gradually decreases, which could incentivize France to introduce severe economic sanctions against Russia."

"France opposes the European Union’s enlargement, meaning that Ukraine will have to convince Paris to do otherwise. If Macron wins, we might succeed. But if Le Pen does, then it is virtually impossible."

"If Le Pen wins, Ukraine should not expect strong support or tough sanctions against Russia."

"There is ground to believe that Macron will win in the second tour. While he will be unable to crush Le Pen’s father like Jacques Chirac did, the gap is likely to be substantial – around 6-8%"

Read more via Arming Ukraine or Vetoing EU Path: What to Expect from France’s Elections, in Ukrainian