By re-invading Ukraine, Russia aimed – among other things – to stop NATO from expanding. However, it seems like Moscow has achieved just the opposite.

NATO’s expansion will change the balance in Northern Europe, depriving Russia of some of its traditional leverage in the region, says Alina Grytsenko, a senior consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Research. Read the full article in Ukrainian Russia is Losing the Baltics: What Will Finland and Sweden’s NATO Membership Change?

Finland is looking to file its NATO membership bid by the end of May. Sweden is not willing to lag behind.

It is important for the two countries to synchronize their applications as Stockholm and Helsinki have traditionally aligned their approach to foreign affairs and defense.

The membership bids will likely be reviewed at the upcoming NATO summit in Madrid in June, with the Alliance slated to give the green light to both. In the meantime, Sweden and Finland are busy negotiating the security guarantees from NATO while their applications are being reviewed. After all, Russia has threatened the two countries too. 

Finland has decided to join NATO as there is little evidence that Moscow will stop in Ukraine. Accordingly, both Helsinki and Stockholm view NATO as their military umbrella.

Finland’s and Sweden’s membership will likely revamp the security architecture in Northern Europe and the power balance in the Baltics as once the expansion has been completed, NATO will control most of the Baltic Sea coast. This means that the Alliance will not only limit Russia’s presence in these waters but also potentially block it from entering them.

Finland and Sweden are valuable assets for NATO, as they can help the Baltic States fully mitigate the Russian threat. Besides, their membership will also shift the power balance in the Norwegian Sea as Finland will help to protects the northern coast of Norway in case of Russian attack. This helps to protect the passage to the Northern Atlantic, which is critical for the U.S. to bolster the European war theater in case of need.

All in all, Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership will significantly hamper Russia’s potential destabilization of Northern Europe. Read the full article in Ukrainian here.