How Big is the Risk of a New Russia-Georgia War? Analysis from Tbilisi

The relations between Ukraine and Georgia are at their lowest ebb. Why did Tbilisi refuse to join the sanctions against Russia? What could force Moscow to re-launch its incursion into the country? Will Georgia attempt to return its territories? And why did it miss the opportunity to send heavy weapons to Ukraine?

To find out the answers, European Pravda’s editor Yuriy Panchencko interviewed Gela Vasadze, an expert from the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center. The conversation and its transcript are available on our YouTube channel and site.

Here are the takeaways.

On returning the occupied territories.

"I have always said that Georgia, just like all of the post-Soviet countries, will be able to return their territories only if Russia plunges into a systematic crisis like it did in 1917 and 1997. Ukraine is accelerating this crisis. Furthermore, it is making it inevitable. Back in the day, I was often asked "When will this collapse happen?" I had nothing to reply. Now, my answer is clear-cut: "Soon, very soon."

According to Vasadze, it will only be possible to return the territories forcefully. For the time being, Georgia is unable to do it.  Even if Tbilisi manages to seize South Ossetia, it will require money to reintegrate it, meaning that the West will have to foot the bill. Is the West up for that?

Will Russia re-invade Georgia?

"The risk is virtually non-existent as Russia is stuck in Ukraine. Were Ukraine to fall a month or two months ago, then yes, the risk of an attack would have been high. And nothing would have saved us from it. Now there is another risk. If the parties strike a peace deal allowing the Russians to crawl back to whichever borders, then the chance of Russia launching aggression against Georgia becomes higher."

On Georgia’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine war.

"At the outset, our government described the situation in the following way: Ukraine is our ally, it’s our friend and we love it dearly. At the same time, it’s a shame that it has a Saakashvili-like leader, who happens to be friends with him. That’s why they failed to pre-empt the war. Our PM even went as far as saying that Ukraine’s government is in opposition to Georgia. And so Georgian society was fed the idea that, yes, we feel sorry for Ukraine and that, indeed, Putin is bad. But Zelensky also bears the blame."

"Accordingly, whenever someone tried calling on the government to send more weapons to Ukraine, they always had to answer the question: You want to turn Batumi into a new Mariupol?"

On the accusations of sanction circumvention.

"I believe that the Georgian government held talks with the Russian oligarchs. The recording between PM Ivanishvili and billionaire Yevtushenkov only proves so. Many Russian companies facing difficulties will try to circumvent sanctions, including via Georgia."

Read the entire interview in Ukrainian "Anticipating the New War: How Russian Aggression and Conflict with Tbilisi has Changed Georgia." Or watch it on YouTube.