Moscow's attempts to win over its allies (except Belarus) have failed. At present, the probability of providing military assistance (sending units of the national armed forces) to the CSTO member states for the war against Ukraine is low.

The reluctance of these countries to turn into Belarus, to face sanctions, and the incomprehensible reaction of society - these factors are currently playing a significant deterrent.

Nevertheless, Russia can still count on some help from its allies. And this should be the object of constant attention from both Ukraine and the West, writes the head of the Asia-Pacific section of the New Geopolitics Research Network, Yuri Poita, in his article Putin's Closest Allies: What Help the CSTO Countries Provide to Russia.

What support can Russia count on? First of all, to help circumvent the sanctions.

For example, there is already a tenfold increase in Russian-registered companies in Kazakhstan (355 in March, 651 in April, and 362 in May). Russian law firms have responded to it immediately, offering comprehensive business relocation services to Kazakhstan.

The Russian government facilitates it with permission to import in parallel (without the permission of the intellectual property owner). It effectively legalizes the smuggling of foreign goods. Russian retailers import auto parts from Asia, the CIS, and Europe.

We should not forget that military-technical assistance to the Russian Federation can be provided (and probably is already provided) covertly, through existing channels of military-technical cooperation.

Currently, there is a lot of evidence of Western components in Russian Orlan-10 drones, T-72 tanks, KAMAZ cars, and Russian Caliber missiles.

At the same time, we should not forget that the CSTO countries have close ties with Russia, besides its defense industry.

Russia's recent intensification of the legal framework for the CSTO's "peacekeeping activities" may indicate the likelihood of such a scenario.

At a May meeting at the CSTO Joint Staff, representatives of the Ministries of Defense discussed the issue of "equipping the CSTO peacekeeping forces with modern weapons, military, and special equipment, as well as special equipment."

It confirms that Russia prepares appropriate "peacekeeping" tools in advance and does not rule out their use in a favorable international situation.

Such a scenario could become real in the case of a military defeat of Kyiv and some "Minsk-3" or "Istanbul-1".

Thus, Moscow may conduct an operation in Ukraine at the right time, similar to Kazakhstan in January 2022. Moreover, Russia shows complete disrespect for international norms, and the need to obtain a UN mandate may also be neglected.

In this case, Ukraine should: first, closely monitor the facts and potential opportunities to circumvent sanctions; second, impose sanctions on the enterprises of the defense-industrial complex of the CSTO partner countries, which are already cooperating with the sanctioned enterprises of the Russian Federation.