How Russia Might Take Revenge on Lithuania over Kaliningrad Blockage

Wednesday, 22 June 2022

The reason for the new conflict was Lithuania's ban on the transit of some goods across its territory to Kaliningrad. The Russian enclave can be reached either by sea or across Lithuania.

Moscow is actively thinking about how to threaten Lithuania. But Russia does not have any economic influence on it.

It increases the risk of a violent response. Even though Lithuania is a NATO member.

The ban on transit came into force on June 18. As Russia claims, Vilnius warned about it only on the eve. At the same time, at first, it was only about rail route, but then Lithuania also banned road transit, Lavrov's department clarifies.

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Lithuania's chargé d'affaire of Lithuania, stating that if freight transit is not fully restored soon, Russia reserves the right to take action to protect its national interests.

The fact is that Vilnius shut the route for the transport of steel and other ferrous metals on June 18. This is exactly what restrictions were imposed on.

And from July 10, the list of goods prohibited for transit will expand - cement, wood, alcohol, and even caviar. From December 5, oil and oil products will also be banned. This may hit Russia the most and Kaliningrad in particular.

Thus, Lithuania points out that Russia should have known about the planned EU sanctions long ago. Therefore their allegations are clearly far-fetched.

Josep Borell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, also supported Lithuania. He said, "there is no blockade."

However, Russia still has a point. After all, transit goes not to third countries but from one region of Russia to another. And transit to Kaliningrad across Lithuania reminded Russia is guaranteed by the Russian-Lithuanian international agreement (Russians have great respect for international agreements when they benefit from them).

Finally, Borrel, supporting Lithuania, added that the Kaliningrad issue still needs to be clarified. The oppositional Lithuanian Social Democrats have taken a similar position and are demanding a parliamentary hearing on the blockade.

However, as often happens, Russia has chosen not diplomatic affairs but pressure and threats.

In Russia's absence of energy pressure, we can assume they might use force. Politico called the Suwałki Gap (an area along the Lithuanian-Polish border that forms a 70km corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad) "the most dangerous place on Earth."

If you notice an error, select the required text and press Ctrl + Enter to report it to the editors.
Advertisement: