First time ever in Ukrainian-Slovak relations, the president of Slovakia and the prime minister, as well as the ministers of foreign affairs and defense, are unanimously by the Ukrainian side.

The ruling coalition is rapidly losing popularity due to a personal conflict between the leaders of the two parties: Igor Matovič (OĽANO) and Richard Sulík (SaS).

Even now, the opposition, including many pro-Russian politicians, has the best chance of winning early elections. And given the conflict within the coalition is still on, before the elections in early 2024, their ratings may further drop.

Two weeks ago, on July 6, the SaS ("Freedom and Solidarity") threatened to pull out of the ruling four-party coalition government — OĽANO ("Ordinary People and Independent Individuals"), Sme Rodina ("We Are Family"), and Za ľudí ("For the people").

Announcing the SaS pulling out from the coalition, Richard Sulík called on Prime Minister Eduard Heger to draft a new coalition deal by the end of August.

SaS wants the leader of OĽANO, Igor Matovič, the current Minister of Finance, to resign.

All SaS-nominated ministers will tender their resignations if he remains in the government.

The problem emerged in late 2020 when OĽANO, led by the populist Igor Matovič, won the parliamentary elections.

March of 2021 was a turning point. Regardless of the dropping ratings and a weak start of the vaccination campaign, Matovič decided to boost a move by purchasing the Sputnik V vaccine from Russia.

This caused protests within the coalition and almost led to early elections.

Igor Matovič demanded the post of Minister of Finance. The coalition had no choice but to agree to it.

In addition, the post of Minister of Finance let Matovič pressure the coalition - no government program could come into force without his signature.

The so-called "Matovič package" caused a new crisis - tax bonuses and subsidies for families with children in the total amount of 1.2 billion euros, which is 1% of the country's budget.

In early June, the president of Slovakia, Zuzana Čaputova, vetoed the package and sent it back to the parliament. However, the MPs soon overcame her veto by only one vote (77 "for" out of 150).

Igor Matovič refused to resign again, this time from the position of Minister of Finance and the government in general. And his party supports him in this. Instead, SaS keeps insisting on Matovič 's resignation.

Currently, four possible scenarios for overcoming the crisis are being discussed:

First: OĽANO and Prime Minister Eduard Heger accept the SaS ultimatum. This is unlikely.

Second: Matovič and Sulik leave the government simultaneously, but SaS remains in the coalition of four and the government, carrying out the appropriate rotation.

Third: SaS pulls out from the coalition, and the ministers resign, which will not necessarily lead to early elections but will create a situation of a minority government.

Fourth: Prime Minister Eduard Heger will manage to reconcile Richard Sulik and Igor Matovič and rewrite the coalition deal so that everyone is more or less satisfied again. The coalition and the government of the four continue their work from September.

Such political zigzags in Slovakia should attract attention in Kyiv.

The change of power in Slovakia will probably lead to problems with weapons delivery to Ukraine. The new government may also change Slovakia's position on sanctions by joining Orbán.

The reconstruction of the Uzhhorod-Vyšné Nemecké border crossing is no less important for Ukrainian stability.

The potential of Slovakia for Ukrainian grain export and for the reversal of energy carriers may not be as powerful as in the case of Poland, but it is also crucial.