British Intelligence: Russia Still Has a Lot of Military Aircraft, but Large-Scale Air Campaign Unlikely

British Intelligence believes that the Russian Aerospace Forces still have a fairly large number of aircraft at their disposal, but it is unlikely that Russia will decide to dramatically expand its air campaign because of this.

According to the British Defence Intelligence review for 16 February, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in support of the war in Ukraine as they have for many months. "Russian sortie rates have increased over the last week, following several weeks of quieter activity. Air activity is now roughly in line with the average daily rate seen since the summer of 2022", reads the report.

British Intelligence believes that Russian air power continues to significantly underperform in the war, constrained by a continued high threat from Ukrainian air defences and dispersed basing due to the threat of strikes against Russian airfields. Russian combat jets operate almost exclusively over Russian-held territory, preventing them from playing their part effectively.  

"Across Russia, the VKS likely maintains a largely intact fleet of approximately 1,500 crewed military aircraft, despite losing over 130 since the start of the invasion. However, it is unlikely that the VKS is currently preparing for a dramatically expanded air campaign as under the current battlefield circumstances it would likely suffer unsustainable aircraft losses", British Intelligence writes. 

Earlier, the US government unofficially said that Washington believes the current priority for Ukraine (UKR) was not long-range missiles or aircraft, but providing enough ammunition for artillery and air defence systems.  

Western capitals are concerned that Russian Air Force losses after a year of war are relatively small, and Russia may use this advantage in new offensive attempts.