Putin Used His Last "Nuclear" Argument to Influence West

Vladimir Putin's nearly two-hour address to the Federal Assembly, long anticipated in Russia and the West, was largely unremarkable. Only one announcement made sense: Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on limiting the nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation and the United States.

This is the last Treaty that somehow limits the "arms race" between the Russian Federation and the USA. Putin's decision to put it on hold is not so unexpected.

It is also important for Ukraine that on Tuesday, Putin used the last safe trump card for him in the nuclear blackmail of the West, as EuroPravda journalist Oleh Pavliuk claims in his article Last step of Russia's nuclear blackmail: What does suspending the Treaty that limits arms race mean (Ukr).

The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was the last written agreement between the United States and Russia to limit their military arsenals.

The parties signed three similar agreements: 1991 CSTO-1 or START-1 (between the USSR and the USA), 1992 CSTO-2 or START II (signed by Boris Yeltsin and George W. Bush), and 2010 CSTO-3 or New Start (signed by Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama). They extended the last agreement in February 2021.

The Treaty limited the number of strategic missile carriers and nuclear warheads in the Russian Federation and the United States to 700 and 1,550, respectively.

Another important provision of CSTO-3 is the mechanisms of mutual inspections of the nuclear arsenals of the USA and Russia, meaning up to 18 inspections per year.

The first deep cracks in CSTO-3 appeared under the administration of Donald Trump. First, he simply did not like all the "bad" agreements of Obama's predecessor.

First, only strategic nuclear weapons fall under the CSTO-3. Since Russia retains a significant advantage, Trump wanted to extend it to tactical ones. Secondly, the U.S. sought to conclude a new agreement involving China, which has been very actively building up its own arsenal.

It is unclear how CSTO-3 would have turned out if Trump had won the 2020 elections. But Biden and Putin agreed to extend the agreement for five years at the last moment.

And then coronavirus pandemic happened and the inspections under the Treaty were suspended. Ultimately, it led to a full-scale war in Ukraine unleashed by Russia.

Thus began the gradual dismantling of the Treaty.

In June 2022, the Russian Federation refused to let American inspectors in, citing visa restrictions for its inspectors in the U.S. due to sanctions. In November, it disrupted a previously agreed meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, explaining it as Washington's unfriendly actions.

Then more: when Washington directly accused Moscow of violating the Treaty, Russia's Foreign Ministry hinted that the Treaty might not be extended after 2026.

On February 21, 2023, Putin announced the "suspension" of the Treaty.

The word "suspension" is not in quotation marks just like that. The actions of the Russian Federation are a purely political step.

As the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia states, despite Putin's aggressive rhetoric, Russia undertakes its planned period of validity, i.e. until 2026, to "absolutely adhere" to the Treaty obligations regarding the exchange from the USA with information about missile launches.

Although without a verification mechanism, the "promises" of the Russian Federation do not mean much.

To renew its participation in the Treaty, Moscow demands Washington "to make good faith efforts with the aim of general de-escalation and creation of conditions for the full functioning of the Treaty." In other words, stop supporting Ukraine and fulfill already forgotten Russian demands regarding "security guarantees."

Russia has used nuclear saber-rattling over the past year in different forms.

At the same time, to justify the blackmail, Russia accused Ukraine of the alleged "dirty bomb" or preparation of a "nuclear provocation."

Although Russia's nuclear rhetoric was echoed in Western capitals, it still did not stop sending military assistance to Ukraine. Moreover, the West got on a new level - decided on tanks and, in the future, on long-range missiles and Western jets.

Given this situation, Russia has used its last "nuclear" argument.