How Moldova Getting Ready to Cut off Gas to Transnistria and Consequences for Region

Sergiu Tofilat is a Moldovan politician and expert, one of the most authoritative public experts in Moldova on energy. Journalists from EuroPravda met with him in Chişinău to discuss Transnistria, an issue that also concerns Ukraine.

The main source of funding for this occupied enclave, controlled by Russia, is gas. They supply free gas there from Russia, which no one dares to disconnect. However, preparations for this are already ongoing.

About the humanitarian crisis that will occur and what will happen by 2025, read the main points by Sergiu Tofilat's "We will cut off the 'independence' of Transnistria due to non-payment in 2025. If Moscow does not do it earlier."

Since December 2022, Moldova on the right bank of the Dniester River (the part controlled by Chişinău, without Transnistria) no longer purchases Russian gas.

Chişinău buys it from other suppliers, such as Romanian gas or liquefied gas from LNG terminals.

This is a radical change.

Two years ago, 100% of Moldova's purchases consisted solely of Russian gas.

Although Moldova no longer purchases gas from Russia, the contract between Gazprom and MoldovaGaz is still valid. The Russian side does not comply with it but also does not terminate it.

For a very simple reason: if they disconnect the gas, it will not affect Chişinău, but Transnistria.

After all, gas is the main channel of funding for the regime in Transnistria.

The "gas income" is about half of Transnistria's budget!

Without this money, or without "free" Russian gas, they will go bankrupt in a matter of months. A humanitarian crisis will break out there.

Thus, the so-called "independence" of Transnistria will be disconnected due to non-payment.

Although Moldova no longer consumes Russian gas, it technically remains dependent on gas for electricity generation.

Chişinău imports 80% of the electricity for the territory under its control. The main part of the import is electricity from the Moldovan power plants in Transnistria. And, as already mentioned, they generate it by burning Russian gas.

It would be possible to switch to purchases from other sources, from Romania and Ukraine, but the power grid was built in Soviet times in such a way that even Romanian power lines first enter Transnistria and only then go to Chişinău.

To eliminate energy dependence on Russia (and Transnistria), this problem needs to be resolved, and it is happening now. The Moldovan government is constructing a high-voltage power line from Romania, Chişinău-Vulcănești.

It will be completed in 2025, and Transnistria can be disconnected.

Even though Moldova has no longer gas dependence, there will no longer be dependence on electricity generated from gas.

Sooner or later, this channel of financing for Tiraspol will be cut off.

Therefore, when Transnistria (and Moldova as a whole) is cut off from gas supply from Russia, a real humanitarian crisis will occur there. But all this will create prerequisites for the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict and the reunification of the Republic of Moldova.

This means that we already need to prepare a reintegration plan.

While there is time, we need to prepare people who can govern the Transnistrian region and who can form a local government – judges, prosecutors, teachers, doctors, etc.