The Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defence Forces has prepared an operational summary regarding the attempted armed coup in Russia by Wagner Group mercenaries and its consequences for Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine.

According to Postimees and Estonian intelligence, the coup attempt may have been the result of miscalculations by the Wagner Group leader,  Yevgeny Prigozhin. He may have relied on the support of certain military commanders and the expectation that parts of the regular army would join the campaign to Moscow. The Wagner Group encountered weak resistance, but no one sided with the coup plotters.

Prigozhin likely realised his mistake and sought a way out of the situation. On his part, Alexander Lukashenko offered acceptable security guarantees, as stated by the intelligence agency.

According to the intelligence center's information, Lukashenko may have only served as a mediator in the negotiations, but the long-standing friendly relations between him and Prigozhin had an important impact on the developments.

Lukashenko was interested in finding a resolution to the situation since the stability of his regime is directly dependent on Russia.

The agency stated that as of today, Prigozhin has traveled to Belarus, but it is known that Wagner Group fighters remain at their bases in the occupied territories of the Luhansk region. It is likely that some of the Wagner Group members will soon relocate to Belarus.

On one hand, the presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus allows Lukashenko to use them as instructors for special forces units. However, a large contingent can destabilise the situation in the country. Currently, it is unknown how many Wagner fighters will end up in Belarus, according to Estonian intelligence.

It appears that Russia will cease its financial and other support for the Wagner Group, and the fighters may be offered the opportunity to join the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces.

It is assumed that Russia is only just beginning to deal with the consequences of the coup attempt. Strict measures may be taken against the coup plotters, and there could be increased control over the armed forces and security agencies.

In the immediate future, it is likely that the actions of the Wagner Group will not have a significant impact on the course of the war in Ukraine.

Earlier, the Foreign Ministers of Lithuania and Latvia called on NATO to strengthen its eastern borders in response to the presence of Wagner Group private military contractors in Belarus.

The President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, warned about the risks that the presence of Wagner Group in Belarus could pose to the security of Lithuania.