Can Russia Destabilise Moldova Influencing Gagauz Region?

Monday, 3 July 2023

Gagauzia is the most pro-Russian region of Moldova. It is an autonomous region with the right to secede from Moldova, and it consistently votes for pro-Russian parties (Dodon used to get 99% of the votes here!).

However, in the recent elections for the head of the Gagauz region, a completely unknown to voters candidate emerged victorious. It was enough for her to be supported by a pro-Russian party to win.

To understand what is happening and how far it can go, we should find out who the Gagauz people are and what Gagauzia is. In an interview with our expert on Gagauzia, Viacheslav Krachun, our EuroPravda editor, Sergiy Sydorenko, discussed "hidden European integration" and the connection between the Gagauz people and Crimean Tatars in Chisinau.

The main points of the conversation are presented in the article "Will Gagauzia become the 'new Transnistria'? Exploring sphere of Russian influence in Moldova."

The Gagauz people are one of the few Turkic Orthodox nations. The closest linguistic relatives of the Gagauz language are Azerbaijani, Turkish, and Crimean Tatar, as they can understand each other without an interpreter.

Years after World War II, the Gagauz people faced great hardships. According to modern Gagauz scholars, about a third of the Gagauz population died out during that period.

One might think this would be enough for them to forever resent Russians, Soviet power, and everything related to Russia. However, people in Gagauzia do not remember this and only remember the positive aspects of the Soviet era.

Currently, Russian propaganda is strong in Gagauzia. While Gagauz people in Moldova continue to live by the myths of Russian propaganda, there has been a rapid change in the consciousness of the Gagauz community in the Odessa region over the past year and a half. Ukrainian Gagauz people no longer look towards Russia. Among the Gagauz people, the first Hero of Ukraine has emerged – Colonel Mykola Panas, who received the Hero star from President Zelenskyy.

This division among Ukrainian Gagauz people is another tragedy for the Gagauz nation, which they have not yet fully realised.

Although there is no talk of Gagauzia's independence from Moldova objectively, there is a chance that Russia will try to exploit this situation. Attempts have already been made.

In May, a so-called "Congress of MPs at All Levels" took place in Comrat. There was much discussion about the confrontation with Chisinau, and suddenly one politician, former mayor of Comrat, Nicolai Dudoglo, proposed declaring, "if our demands are not heard, we will hold a referendum on secession from Moldova."

These words caused fear, and even the most radical congress participants felt it was better to distance themselves from this idea.

Therefore, the idea of "independence" for Gagauzia currently lacks support.

However, Russian influence agents still exist. Recently, Russia managed to secure the election of a new, pro-Moscow leader for the autonomy, Evghenia Guțul, from the "Shor" party (inauguration is scheduled for July 19).

Evghenia Guțul is an "empty vessel," a hologram. But people did not vote for her, they voted for the image of the "Shor" party, which, in the past one and a half to two years, has capitaliіed on a series of crises, uniting the entire protest electorate and the votes of the active opposition.

The "Shor" party is a phenomenon.

Firstly, it is not really a party, but a business project and at the same time a Kremlin tool in Moldovan politics.

Secondly, "Shor" wins elections by breaking the electoral democracy system in Moldova.

Now the intrigue lies in how Evghenia Guțul will govern the region, as she lacks knowledge of the fundamentals of the economy, communication, and understanding of how Gagauzia is structured... Perhaps someone else will be entrusted with the management, and she will serve as a figurehead for photo opportunities.

Regardless of how pro-Russian the politicians in Gagauzia may be, the next day after their election, each of them encounters a different reality and realizes that practically all infrastructure projects in Gagauzia, from road repairs to water supply, are linked to European grants. The elected official will understand that there is simply no other vector than the European one.

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