Three Preconditions for Successful After-War Reconstruction of Ukraine

Monday, 31 July 2023

Ukraine presented a nationwide roadmap for reconstruction in June. In turn, the European Commission proposed 50 billion euros as grants and credits for Ukraine's reconstruction by 2027.

There is a mutual understanding that relying solely on government funds will not be enough for Ukraine's reconstruction.

Read more about how to attract private investments for Ukraine's reconstruction in the column by the EU Jacques Delors Centre's scientist on external and security policy, Sasha Ostanina, Guarantees for Investors: What Will Help Ukraine Attract Funds for Reconstruction.

According to the author, a stable cessation of hostilities is necessary to attract investments to Ukraine. However, she adds that stable ceasefire alone, without eliminating the threat from Russia, is not sufficient for successful reconstruction.

Estimations indicate that Ukraine needs 170 billion euros of direct foreign investments and 325 billion euros of domestic private investments to carry out reconstruction projects.

In Sasha Ostanina's opinion, to attract these funds, Ukraine needs to address three main deficiencies: restoring the insurance market by increasing (re)insurance offerings, enhancing access to financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, and making access to the EU single market more stable for Ukraine.

The 50-billion-euro fund by the European Commission for Ukraine has three main directions: supporting Ukraine's financial stability, stimulating investments, and providing technical assistance.

"This marks an important shift from short-term emergency aid to a medium-term reconstruction programme. However, this will not be enough for guaranteed stable recovery," warns the expert.

As already mentioned in the column, the EU should strengthen the mechanisms for assisting Ukraine's insurance market, financing small and medium-sized enterprises, and accessing the EU single market, to switch for a long-term EU strategy.

Ostanina reminds that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Commission, among others, have agreed "to explore the possibility" of creating a Ukraine Reconstruction Guarantee Fund.

"If this happens, it will facilitate access to corporate insurance for military risks, initially focusing on trade and international maritime transport.

Over the next 15 years, four-fifths of the 500 billion euros of foreign and domestic investments in Ukraine will need insurance," reports the scientist on external and security policy from the EU Jacques Delors Centre.

Furthermore, according to her, the EU must ensure that the reconstruction plan for Ukraine gives priority to small and medium-sized enterprises.

In the expert's opinion, individual support should be focused on increasing the availability of funds for sectors that make the greatest contribution to national production: retail trade and services (including logistics), industry, and agriculture.

Additionally, the EU should remove all barriers for Ukrainian exports in the long term.

"Assisting Ukraine in its full recovery and EU membership will be a geostrategic investment in the continent's enduring security and economic growth," explains Ostanina.

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