Why Harsh NATO Response to Russia's Provocations Unlikely to Lead to Third World War

Thursday, 3 August 2023

On August 1, NATO faced a challenge it hadn't seen in a long time: two military helicopters from Belarus violated the border of NATO member Poland.

This challenge was not just Polish but the Alliance as a whole.

However, the incident remained without an adequate response.

It seems that the policy of the United States and NATO towards Russia is based on fear and caution, as mentioned in the article by EuroPravda editor Sergiy Sydorenko NATO Fails "Courage Test" .The invasion of helicopters into Poland could have serious consequences.

What happened in Poland is not an isolated incident but a crucial stage in the escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO.

On July 23, self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, during a meeting with his Russian counterpart Putin, publicly stated that Wagner PMC fighters recently stationed in Belarus were aiming to violate Poland's border and march to Warsaw or Rzeszow.

At the time, the purpose of this statement remained unclear.

On August 1, the invasion of Poland did occur, but not in the manner announced by Lukashenko.

Two Belarusian military helicopters, a Mi-24 with the tail number "14" and a Mi-8 with the tail number "86," crossed the Belarusian-Polish border at a very low altitude, penetrated several kilometers into Polish territory, circled around the private sector in the town of Bialowieza, and then returned to Belarus without landing. There were numerous photos taken by local residents, making the border violation evident, although Poland initially did not recognise it.

Belarus continues to deny this and does so in a particularly insolent manner.

Can we assert that Moscow is behind the Belarusian helicopter incident? No, there is currently no evidence of this, although it cannot be ruled out. Regardless of who had ordered to violate the border, this story plays into the hands of the Russian side.

Recently, Russia has been actively provoking the West (primarily the USA) into local military confrontations.

For example, in the second half of July, Russian military aircraft attacked US drones in Syrian airspace at least twice. In the early spring, an incident even led to the loss of an American aircraft due to Russian attacks. There have been other incidents as well.

Each time, the reaction of NATO member states (both the USA and Poland) has been extremely soft.

The saddest part is that such a reaction is not an exception but a rule.

So how should one have acted?

Is it true that a military response to provocations would be the beginning of war between Russia and NATO?

No, that's not true. History has proven this many times.

On the contrary, the response to rule violations must be firm – precisely to make the opponent return to the rules and to prevent escalation from becoming uncontrolled and leading to open confrontation.

Therefore, even during the most acute periods of the Cold War, there were many incidents when the USA/NATO and the USSR shot down each other's aircraft and sank each other's ships that accidentally violated the borders.

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