Why Did Poland Suddenly Escalate Tensions in Its Relations with Ukraine?

The unexpected escalation in relations between Poland and Ukraine could jeopardise the achievements of recent years.

The current crisis and its severity were not entirely anticipated. It remains uncertain if it can be resolved in the near future, as discussed in the article by Yurii Panchenko, editor of European Pravda, 'Poland Chooses Conflict: Why Relations with Our Key Ally Deteriorated.'

Poland's most influential politician, Jarosław Kaczyński, stated a year ago that his country had only two allies: Ukraine and England. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's official visit to Warsaw in April, the first since the full-scale Russian invasion, was perceived as a triumph. Zelenskyy was received with protocol similar to US President Joe Biden not long before.

These examples illustrate the crucial changes in Ukraine-Poland relations over the past eighteen months.

Poland had been taking significant steps in supporting Ukraine, sometimes at the expense of its interests. However, it was expected that Polish policy towards Ukraine could become more pragmatic over time, as any support has its limits.

Nevertheless, this correction has been too abrupt. It started with protests by Polish farmers displeased with Ukrainian grain, oil, and corn in the domestic market. Given that parliamentary elections are approaching in Poland, and the ruling party, Law and Justice, faces a challenging road to victory, farmers' votes became crucial. Therefore, the Polish authorities opted for escalation with their ally.

In May, Poland and three other countries (Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria) imposed a sale ban on Ukrainian agricultural products, which required European Commission approval.

Kyiv made concessions twice, while the mentioned countries advocated for extending the ban until the end of the year at least. However, Poland went all-in and announced that it would not open its market to Ukrainian agricultural products, even if the European Commission made a different decision.

Kyiv did not remain silent this time. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reacted sharply, stating that it was an unfriendly and populist move that would significantly impact Ukraine's global food security and economy. He called on partners and the European Commission to ensure unhindered export of Ukrainian food to the EU.

The Ukrainian prime minister's words sparked a sharp reaction in Warsaw.

Does this conflict imply a reevaluation of the relations between the two countries? Yes and no.

It is popular to believe in some segments of Polish society that if Poland has done so much for Ukraine, it has the right to demand certain concessions from Kyiv. Only political marginal figures, with minimal chances of coming to power, could openly voice such views until recently.

However, the rapid rise of the Confederation party has changed the situation. It has taken away some of the ruling Law and Justice party's voters and has become Poland's only influential political force that can be considered anti-Ukrainian. It has now climbed to the third position in the ratings and may secure a "golden share" in forming a new coalition.

The success of Confederation has alarmed the ruling party, leading them to adjust their policies and adopt a tougher stance towards Ukraine, likely aiming to appeal to voters.

We can expect more than two months of challenging relations with Poland, with parliamentary elections scheduled for October.

However, it is far from certain that after the elections, there will be an opportunity to restore bilateral relations to their previous format, especially considering the possibility of a protracted coalition formation and potential early elections.