How Poland's Elections Will Affect Relations with Ukraine
Unlike in 2022, the Ukrainian issue has become a tool in the fierce narrative confrontation between Polish political parties.
Ahead of us lies over a month (parliamentary elections in Poland on October 15) of intense election campaigning. Parties conduct polls, and shape their narratives.
These narratives indicate that Poles are getting tired of the war (paradoxical as it may sound). Differences are sharpening on a day-to-day basis between Poles and Ukrainian immigrants. The polls are actively manipulated by the political technologists of competing parties.
For more details on the political struggle in Poland that will influence relations with Ukraine, you can read the article by journalist Michał Kacewicz of Biełsat Reevaluating Relations with Ukraine: How Polish Elections Could Impact Support for Kyiv.
The ruling party Law and Justice has been in a fairly comfortable position until recently.
Since the full-scale war, they have constructed a narrative of brotherhood and Polish support for Ukraine, echoing the emotions of the Polish people.
However, dark clouds have gathered over this idyllic picture of close alliance in recent months.
Immediately after Andrzej Duda's visit to Kyiv (together with the President of Lithuania) in June, unfriendly statements regarding the grain issue began to sound more frequently.
Law and Justice politicians are convinced that disillusionment among Poles with Ukraine's stance (mostly regarding the grain issue) can be partially alleviated after the elections.
They also believe that, in relations with Kyiv, occasionally displaying more decisiveness might not hurt because Poles will understand that Poland should stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine.
In the end, the radicalisation of pre-election messages skeptical about Ukraine by Law and Justice may be softened by the president's policies. However, in Duda's recent actions towards Kyiv, a certain inertia is noticeable. He does not go beyond symbolic gestures, despite his excellent personal relations with Zelenskyy and the US recognition for supporting Ukraine.
Opposition parties in the Civic Coalition support good relations with Ukraine. In general, say the same things as Law and Justice did a few months ago.
In the narrative of the Polish opposition, there are no claims against Ukraine. Instead, the Polish government is accused of not seizing the opportunity.
However, the opposition, which monitors poll results, understands well that Poles expect a more decisive policy. Perhaps that's why the Civic Coalition included in its lists Michał Kołodziejczak, the leader of Agrounia, who led protests against the Ukrainian grain import.
The opposition aims to win some Law and Justice rural votes, so they brought a popular leader of agricultural protests into their ranks.
Polish left-wing parties have a pro-Ukraine position.
The conservative bloc Third Way (Trzecia Droga), an initiative by Szymon Hołownia and the Polish Peasant Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe) led by Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, also officially support Ukraine.
As for the statements about Ukraine by the Confederation party, known for its far-right views, they are inconsistent. It's unclear who sets their tone. Perhaps it's Janusz Korwin-Mikke with his overtly pro-Russian views. Don't forget about Grzegorz Braun and his strongly anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.
Statements during the election campaign do not always define future state policy. However, regardless of which forces come to power in Poland after October 15, they will have to take into account the dynamics of the new conditions in their relations with Ukraine.
The election campaign has brought up a trend from 2022: nearly all parties advocate adjusting Polish policy toward Ukraine.
Political forces have different visions of this adjustment, but in short, it comes down to one thing: more decisiveness is needed in relations with Ukraine.
Parties want Polish assistance to be properly appreciated at all levels. Almost all parties believe that the war and its consequences will last a long time. Therefore, support for Ukraine should be reorganised, taking into account Poland's interests in the short and long term.