Why Escalation in Northern Kosovo Dangerous for Serbia

Tuesday, 26 September 2023

On the night of 24 September, a Kosovar police officer was killed in northern Kosovo inhabited by ethnic Serbs. Kosovo declared a counter-terrorism operation.

The details of the escalation could weaken Serbia's position.

About the shootout near the Serbian border and who may be behind the attack, read in the article by Yurii Panchenko, editor of EuroPravda: Serbia Pushes for War: What's Behind Attempt to Reignite Hostilities in Kosovo.

On the night of 24 September, the Kosovo police inspecting the northern region, populated by ethnic Serbs and located near Serbia, noticed several trucks blocking the road, effectively forming a barricade.

When the police approached these vehicles, they came under fire. As a result, one law enforcement officer died, and another was wounded.

It's evident that there were casualties on the other side as well. That's why the attackers, approximately 30 armed individuals travelling in an armoured vehicle (later identified as a Yugoslav military truck, crudely reinforced with armour plates), headed to a monastery in the village of Banjska.

Kosovo declared a counter-terrorism operation and surrounded the monastery.

It became known later that the attackers had left the monastery. The Kosovo police report the elimination of four attackers (later revealed to be taken out by sniper fire) and the arrest of four of their associates, found with a significant arsenal of weapons.

Given that most of the attackers evaded arrest, the authorities in Kosovo refrained from storming the monastery, allowing them to leave peacefully.

The official statement from the Kosovo Ministry of Interior indicates that the attackers were local Serbs and members of the organisation Civil Defence. Moreover, law enforcement officials claim to have evidence that the group was led by Milan Radoičić.

Radoičić is one o the Serbian List party's leader, who represents the interests of Kosovo Serbs. If these suspicions are confirmed, it could significantly change the situation around Kosovo.

Serbian List effectively serves as a branch of the Serbian Progressive Party, led by President Vučić until recently.

The discovery of weapon caches near the border with Serbia suggests that these disturbances were carefully planned. It's unlikely that they showed up there without the Serbian government knowing.

Therefore, the arguments in favour of the version that the Serbian government is directly involved in this conflict are quite substantial.

For many years, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić received support from the Western community by regularly accusing the partially recognised Kosovo government of discriminating against ethnic Serbs. As a result, new protests are inevitable, and the Western community was starting to exert pressure on Prishtina to make further concessions.

Additionally, due to the inflexibility of Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti, Western diplomats and politicians place more blame on Kosovo for the recent escalations.

Belgrade's recent success was getting Kosovo (after significant international pressure) to hold elections in "Serbian municipalities." By the way, the current escalation means that new elections will take place under heightened security risks.

The new protests, apparently prepared on the night of 24 September, likely aimed to pressure the West to increase pressure on Kosovo.

Specifically, they demanded to pass a law on the Association of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo, a step that Kosovo had been trying to avoid until the last moment.

However, if Kosovo can prove Belgrade's involvement in organising the unrest, Serbia's position may weaken significantly.

Nevertheless, this does not mean that the situation in the region will stabilise. On the contrary, there are reasons to believe that in such a situation, Serbia may raise the stakes to intimidate the West with rekindling Balkan conflict and push for continued pressure on Kosovo.

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