It seems that Moscow is seriously concerned about Armenia's possible withdrawal from integration entities created by Russia, primarily the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation).

As a result, efforts to remove Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have intensified. Mass protests are ongoing in the Armenian capital.

Will this attempt be successful? Are the accusations that Armenia is ready to break ties with Russia justified? Read in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda editor, Yerevan in search of new allies: Can Armenia rid itself of dependence on Russia.

On 28 September, the "president" of the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic issued an order to dissolve all its institutions and organisations from 1 January 2024.

Effectively, Azerbaijan has achieved its second goal, launching the war on 19 September. The first goal, the disarmament of the Karabakh Armenian self-defence forces, was achieved as early as 20 September.

After opening the road to Armenia, Karabakh Armenians are massively leaving their homes. About 75,000 refugees from Karabakh have arrived in Armenia – more than half of the population of the self-proclaimed republic.

The end of the conflict in Karabakh does not mean stabilising the situation in the region.

Baku's demands relate to the Zangezur Corridor – a road connecting Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (and, consequently, Türkiye) – remain. Azerbaijan and Türkiye's want this road to have extraterritorial status, meaning Armenia will not be able to control transit.

This is categorically unacceptable to Yerevan, as it would also mean Armenia losing control of its border with Iran, further intensifying its blockade.

Armenia holds Russia accountable not only for the passive actions of its "peacekeepers" stationed in Karabakh during the war on 19 September but also for openly fueling Baku's actions.

Does this mean that, in this new situation, Yerevan will withdraw from organisations created by Russia?

Most likely, there will be no formal rupture of relations, at least until a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. An interviewee of European Pravda reminds us that Russia has its military contingent in Armenia. This factor must be taken into consideration.

However, it seems that de facto Armenia's participation in the CSTO (and perhaps not only there) has come to an end. Yerevan will now avoid events and military exercises under this organisation.

At the same time, Armenia will conduct all peace negotiations with Azerbaijan under the mediation of the EU and the USA. It allows hope for security guarantees for the few Armenians who remain in Karabakh, ensures an impartial approach during the border demarcation process, and gives hope to block ultimatums regarding the Zangezur Corridor.

The West is eager to demonstrate its readiness to support Armenia.

Given Western statements about readiness to help, there have been signals from Baku about its willingness to adjust its demands. They claim not to intend to use force to create a land corridor to Nakhchivan.

The West's tough stance on preventing a new escalation increases the chances of a quick peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Therefore, the Kremlin has little time to organise a coup in Yerevan and prevent Armenia's geopolitical shift.

In this situation, Russia is counting on refugees from Karabakh.

The population of the self-proclaimed republic has traditionally been more pro-Russian than that of "mainland" Armenia. That's why Russian propaganda is focusing on making Pashinyan accountable for the Karabakh tragedy.

However, we cannot rule out that the Kremlin has miscalculated once again.