On September 30, Slovakia will hold early parliamentary elections. Their results could lead to a shift in power towards forces against weapons for Ukraine, advocating for peace with Russia, and even potentially seeking Slovakia's exit from NATO.

Whether the situation in Slovakia is genuinely concerning for Kyiv and what will change in Ukrainian-Slovak relations after September 30 is discussed in an intriguing article by Yurii Panchenko, editor of EuroPravda, reporting from Slovakia Turnaround in Bratislava: Is It Possible to Avoid Pro-Russian Revanche in Slovakia?

Anti-Ukrainian statements are part of the election campaign. Therefore, the pre-election atmosphere is affecting the status of Ukrainians in Slovakia.

Recently, fake photos with new billboards from Smer-SD appeared on Slovak social media with the slogan "No to Ukrainian Nazism."

These photos turned out to be fake, although many believed in their authenticity due to changes in the rhetoric of Robert Fico, the former Prime Minister of Slovakia and the leader of the country's most popular party, Smer-SD.

However, in Slovakia, there is a party with similar views on Ukraine, which focuses on ending military aid in its advertising campaign. This party is called Republic.

The far-right Republic is considered the most likely coalition partner for Smer-SD.

While such an alliance could ultimately strip Fico's party of respectability, it offers few alternatives for Fico.

Additionally, Slovakia's Slovak National Party led by former Parliament Speaker Andrej Danko (with 6% support) may enter such a coalition. This party is a traditional coalition partner of Smer-SD, and Danko was known for his pro-Russian statements.

However, the mandates of these three parties are likely to be insufficient to secure a majority.

Therefore, Fico is currently trying to bring the Voice party, led by another former prime minister, Peter Pellegrini, into the coalition, offering him the position of prime minister, while retaining unofficial leadership for himself.

If necessary, they may also attempt to include the We Are Family party led by the current speaker Boris Kollar in such a coalition. This is a populist political force that can easily enter into a coalition with anyone.

Is it possible to prevent the scenario of forming a coalition with anti-Ukrainian forces? Yes, but it will be very challenging.

The main problem is that three years of loud scandals within the current coalition have led to a decline in the ratings of the parties that formed it.

One of the key conditions for forming a pro-Western coalition based on the election results is the entry of the Democrats party, led by another former Prime Minister, Eduard Heger, into the Slovak Parliament. Currently, its rating is around 3.6-4%, which is clearly insufficient to overcome the electoral threshold.

However, they would also need to bring the Voice party and possibly We Are Family into the coalition to secure a majority.

Theoretically, this is possible, but a more realistic option at the moment appears to be a coalition of Eurosceptics.

Everything may change by September 30. Leading expert of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, Alexander Duleba, suggests that the military successes of Ukraine could influence the election results: "If by the end of September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine take Tokmak, or better yet, create a corridor to the Sea of Azov, this could completely change the electoral landscape in Slovakia."

Political scientist and co-founder of the Adapt Institute, Matej Kandrík, believes that if Euroskeptics form a new coalition, it will pursue an Orbán-style course domestically. In foreign policy, Fico will likely fulfil his promise to end military assistance to Ukraine with weapons. However, the Slovak government is ready for this.