What Will New Majority in Poland Look Like, and What Should Ukraine Get Ready For?

What will the new coalition in Poland be like? And will it be possible to create a new coalition after the parliamentary elections on 15 October?

Most importantly, how will all of this affect Warsaw's foreign policy, and specifically its relations with Ukraine?

Michał Potocki, the political journalist of Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, has answered these questions in his article Poland loses its majority: what will new coalition look like and what will it mean for Ukraine.

In recent months, one scenario has become clear. When we spoke in July, I mentioned three possible scenarios for the outcome of these elections.

Now it can be said that only two basic scenarios remain. The option in which the ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) can repeat its past success and secure a majority in the new Sejm no longer seems realistic.

So, only two scenarios now look real.

The first and the most probable is that PiS will need to form an alliance with the far-right, i.e., with Confederation (a political force that declares ending support for Ukraine) to secure a majority.

Likewise, without Confederation, the opposition will not have a majority. As a result, this party will have a "golden share" in the new parliament.

On the other hand, the second scenario is that the pro-European opposition will still manage to secure a majority and will not need an alliance with Confederation.

In my opinion, the most likely is when Confederation supports some government, but does not formally enter into a coalition.

Such an informal alliance is possible not only with PiS but also with the opposition Civic Platform.

Although, of course, the option with PiS is more likely.

Such a coalition might look like the recent weeks in Ukrainian-Polish relations.

It certainly won't be an easy coalition for Ukraine.

Is a coalition between PiS and someone else possible, apart from Confederation, like the "Third Way"?

If we are talking about a full-fledged coalition, it is more likely to be with the Polish Peasant Party, part of this bloc, rather than with its second participant, Poland-2050 of Szymon Hołownia.

For Ukraine, this scenario means a continuation of tough discussions about grain. However, regarding other issues, one can hope for an improvement in relations.

Sociological surveys in recent weeks have shown a gradual improvement in the electoral positions of pro-European opposition parties.

Yes, it is a very slow process, but the trend is clear. This increases the likelihood of a scenario in which Civic Platform can secure a majority, form a coalition with the left and Third Way, and not need the support of the "Confederation."

But the key risk here is whether Third Way can make it into parliament.