Why International Problems Ukraine Faced Are Not Coincidence

Thursday, 12 October 2023

What has been happening in the world lately reminds us Tetris.

A bunch of very different, both similar and dissimilar problems and challenges come crashing down on Ukraine seemingly unexpectedly and all at once.

However, unlike the unpredictability of the next Tetris blocks' shapes, international events have their own logic.

To understand it, read an article by diplomat and former Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2014-2019, Pavlo Klimkin – Tetris for Ukraine. Why Kyiv is facing problems in its relations with partner states.

First, the global shock from Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine is over.

There is a "fatigue" from Ukraine, which means getting used to events in Ukraine. But it doesn't necessarily mean that our partners don't want to work with us. The process becomes rational, often cynical, as it is in international relations. As much as we would like to maintain the initial emotional support from all players, we must accept reality and adapt to it. Of course, without losing the emotions that are our strength, but trying to understand both our friends and even those who, unfortunately, are indifferent to us.

Second, new problems "explode" in the world every week. Ukraine remains a priority, but not the only one. And often not even the key one.

We need to learn to understand the priorities of our partners.

Third, the stocks of the weapons we so desperately need are gradually diminishing.

The manufacture of weapons will not grow as fast as we need, creating a shortage of armaments for Ukraine and increasing the need to rely on our own (currently limited) resources.

Fourth, the Western financial resources are significant but not unlimited.

And elections always influence discussions about finances.

In fact, elections in the West are primarily about the distribution of money and other resources. So, we see how the start of the US presidential campaign complicates an already complex and polarised policy. American democracy is facing existential challenges that affect how they view us and what we must understand.

In the United States and Europe, there is a surge of fear regarding the maintenance of their usual way of life in the context of assistance to Ukraine. So, at least the Americans will impose more and more conditions on Ukraine for the allocation of money and military aid.

Elections and election campaigns will also affect the timing of aid delivery (as we already see in the United States) and create moments of uncertainty.

Fifth, the West is geared towards slow changes.

The West adheres to the strategy of long-term weakening of Russia, considering it a declining power, which is indeed the case – economically, demographically, and geopolitically.

The "long-term" logic allows the West to avoid risks, including escalation.

It also affects the pace and volume of military aid to Ukraine.

Sixth, the West does not understand what to do with Russia "later."

And, Western countries also do not understand how to build a post-war security model.

Finally, seventh, these are events in Central Europe.

Yes, they help us through common values, but their main motive is their own security. Ukraine literally defends them. So they help us primarily for their own sake, which distinguishes them from Western Europe.

But this won't be the case when it's not about security but about Ukraine's EU accession.

Then our neighbours will vigorously defend their own interests and are already systematically preparing for this. They are definitely not ready to give Ukraine their money and subsidies from the EU budget.

Therefore, all of these points may not be very optimistic, but they are definitely not a reason to think "all is lost."

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