Finland and Estonia have been buzzing like an agitated beehive for the third day.

While most countries are following the events in Israel, these two countries are focusing primarily on the Gulf of Finland and two infrastructure objects – the gas pipeline and the telecommunications cable.

Is the incident with them an unfortunate coincidence or sabotage? And is there a "Russian anchor" behind it?

Estonia and Finland will have to investigate.

Read more about the incident and the signals it sends to the West, in the article by Maria Yemets, European Pravda journalist – Storm or Sabotage? Finland and Estonia Investigate the 'Explosion' of Gas Pipeline at the Gulf of Finland Bottom.

On the stormy night of Sunday, 8 October 8, at about 02:00 AM, the Finnish operator GTS Gasgrid Finland and their Estonian colleagues from Elering, noticed an abnormal pressure drop in the offshore gas pipeline and closed its valves.

It became known later that on the same night, damage occurred to the telecommunications cable that runs parallel and belongs to the Estonian provider Elisa.

The incident happened in an area of intensive maritime traffic and strategic importance: on the Gulf of Finland shores, there are three major cities – Helsinki, Tallinn, and Russian St. Petersburg. Each has a port. The pipeline's route is the shortest stretch between the Estonian and Finnish coasts, essentially serving as a crossroads of maritime routes leading from these three cities.

The Finnish National Bureau of Investigation speculates that the damage was caused not by an explosion but more likely by "mechanical force." When asked by the media, the agency clarified that they do not exclude the possibility of damage caused by a ship's anchor.

The head of the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo), Antti Pelttar, noted that the involvement of a specific state in the incident "cannot be ruled out" but refrained from specifying further.

One of his colleagues added: It is advantageous for Russia, regardless of whether Moscow is involved.

Finnish media sources have reported that security services suspect Russian sabotage.

In contrast to officials who have to carefully weigh their words, the media and the expert community directly question Russia's possible involvement.

One of the versions is that a large ship's anchor or some other object on the seabed was touched and pulled by it.

Considering that all of this happened during a strong storm (with winds up to 28 m/s), it is also impossible to rule out that the incident was not intentional. By the way, Jukka Savolainen from the European Center for Countering Hybrid Threats analysed a hypothetical scenario similar to the Balticconnector incident a few years ago.

Furthermore, even if this was intentional sabotage, it will be extremely difficult to prove – shipowners and captains can claim that no one is immune from unfortunate accidents in complex weather conditions.

Operators estimate to repair Balticconnector in at least five months – in April 2024. Therefore, the gas pipeline is out of operation precisely during the coldest months. For Estonia, this stoppage could lead to an increase in gas prices in the country's market.

Finnish experts, on the other hand, say that this incident has already played into the Kremlin's hands.

But even if Russia's involvement and its deliberate actions cannot be proven, allies will still have to think about protecting numerous gas pipelines and cables where they may become targets of open or hybrid attacks – both in the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, and beyond.

After all, it's not just Russia that is capable of aggressive actions.