When it became clear that the opposition in Poland has a good chance of forming a new government, it turned out that the Ukrainian authorities had only focused on dialogue with Law and Justice and had not established any channels of cooperation with the opposition.

This could pose a significant risk to Ukrainian-Polish relations.

However, there is still some time for Kyiv to rectify these mistakes. It is expected that PiS won't willingly relinquish its influence and will attempt to block all significant initiatives of the opposition.

You can read more in the article by EuroPravda editor Yurii Panchenko, Tusk and His Team: How Opposition Negotiates a New Government in Poland. The author discusses the deadline for Poland to form a new government, its composition, and what changes can be expected in relations with Ukraine after its approval.

Polish President Andrzej Duda is beginning consultations with representatives of all parliamentary groups that have entered the Sejm. There are five such political forces: ruling Law and Justice, the pro-European opposition, Citizen Coalition, led by Donald Tusk, Third Way, New Left, and far-right Confederation.

The mandate to form the government is given by the president. It is highly likely that he will entrust this to PiS. However, if PiS's attempts to form a government with the Polish Peasant Party (PSL), which entered the parliament as part of Third Way, prove to be unsuccessful within a month, the right to form the government will go to the parliament.

Thus, a real change of government in Poland is expected only in the second half of December.

Currently, the opposition is already in the process of dividing posts. Although they haven't officially commented on these arrangements, some details have become known through the media.

It is highly probable that Donald Tusk will become the new prime minister. His Citizen Coalition is also likely to receive the position of the Marshal of the Senate, which will probably be taken by Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, a former presidential candidate in the 2020 elections.

However, it appears that Ukraine's attention will be drawn to Third Way. This political force, which gained significant influence in the new Sejm, is competing for essential portfolios.

This primarily concerns Poland-2050 led by Szymon Hołownia. The party's leader may become the Speaker of the new Sejm. More importantly, the party is claiming the positions of defence and foreign affairs ministers.

The new head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs could be Michał Kobosko, a former journalist and later the head of the Atlantic Council's analytical center. Another candidate for the Minister of Foreign Affairs is a professional diplomat and advisor to Szymon Hołownia, Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. However, there are obstacles to her appointment.

In the context of the "grain crisis," it is crucial for Ukraine to know who will hold the Minister of Agriculture. From the beginning of coalition negotiations, it was known that this position would go to the PSL quota. However, the competition for the position might come from Michał Kołodziejczyk, the leader of Agrounia, who entered the Sejm on the list of Citizen Coalition.

Delay in appointing a new government is not the only problem for the new parliamentary majority.

The PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczyński, commenting on his party's election results, stated that, in the "worst-case scenario," his party would block all the opposition's attempts to repeal reforms enacted during their years in power.

The key issue here is whether President Duda's position will be as uncompromising. If it is, this will be a significant problem for the new coalition, as overcoming a presidential veto requires 60% of the vote, which they do not have.

Consequently, it's possible that until the presidential elections in 2025, the coalition's options will be severely limited.

However, even winning the presidency with a "friendly" candidate in the next election won't solve all the problems.