No political analyst can predict the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Poland on 15 October.

However, even those who believe that the ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) still has a good chance of retaining power acknowledge that the current opposition has never had such high chances of winning, neither four nor eight years ago.

To learn more about what is happening in the election campaign in Poland, what the new coalition might be like, and how these elections could affect Ukrainian-Polish relations, read the article by EuroPravda editor Yurii Panchenko: What to Expect from Elections in Poland?

The core electorate of the current government resides in small towns in Poland, especially in the east, (large cities traditionally vote for the opposition).

EuroPravda decided to learn more about the Polish elections, meeting with one of the PiS leaders and the Defence Minister, Mariusz Błaszczak, in the small town of Janów Lubelski, about an hour's drive from Lublin.

But our editor Yurii Panchenko was not allowed to attend the meeting. Moreover, there were no announcements about this event in the town itself. A simple person could hardly have found out about it.

This story only confirms what the Polish journalists say – PiS leadership rallies are carefully choreographed events, with selected journalists and pre-arranged participants.

This is far from the only surprise of the current elections.

Unlike 2019 when the ruling party won thanks to unprecedented social payments, this year's focus is on television broadcasts where accusations of wanting to destroy the country "for the pleasure of Germany and Brussels bureaucrats" are being directed at the opposition.

"The current campaign is unusually dirty," says Edwin Bendyk, the head of the Stefan Batory Foundation.

How many parties in Poland can be called anti-Ukrainian? Most of them are currently running on the Confederation of Freedom and Independence list.

Currently, the Confederation has only nine MPs in the Sejm (Polish parliament). However, it is highly likely that their number will increase. In the summer, the Confederation not only reached third place in pre-election polls but also approached a 15% level of support.

This meant that neither the government nor the opposition could form a coalition without them, giving the far-right a "golden share."

Although their rating have fallen since late summer, these risks remain relevant.

Among other things, this party advocates for Ukraine to be denied assistance. To illustrate this point, the Confederation even created a check for 100 billion zlotys (approximately 20 billion euros), which Ukraine supposedly owes.

There's also the intrigue of the Third Way. Recent polls show increased chances of the opposition winning. In particular, the rating of the Civic Platform has only dropped by 1 point to 25%, and the Left has increased, reaching 9%.

For them to gain a majority, it's only possible if the Third Way coalition (Polish Peasant Party and Poland-2050) makes it to the Sejm.

The final success of the opposition could depend on whether the Third Way can strengthen its support in the final days before the vote.

Another factor that could influence the election results is the large number of undecided voters who plan to vote but have not yet decided who to vote for. Opinia24 polls estimate their number at 22%.

Sociologists suggest that most of the undecided voters lean towards the opposition. Therefore, a week before the election day, the Polish opposition has a very real chance of winning.