Why Did Serbian Leadership Announce Snap Elections?

Serbia is heading for its second snap parliamentary election on 17 December. The country's president, Aleksandar Vučić, has made this decision.

At the same time, local elections will be held in the Serbian capital and a number of municipalities.

The new elections could prove to be quite challenging for Vučić. It is very likely that the ruling coalition will lose Belgrade, where the positions of the pro-Western opposition are becoming increasingly powerful.

Vučić has taken a step he had carefully avoided until now to prevent it. His Serbian Progressive Party (SPP) will join forces in the local elections with the Serbian Radical Party (SRP) led by the war criminal Vojislav Šešelj.

Read more on Vučić's precarious position in Serbiain the article by Yurii Panchenko, editor of European Pravda – Serbia Radicalising: how snap elections will impact friendly to Russia country.

Thanks to the snap elections in the Serbian government, it is now possible to postpone unpleasant issues, such as imposing sanctions against Russia and reaching a compromise with partially recognised Kosovo, until next summer.

However, this is not the only reason to hold snap elections.

Vučić is responding to the opposition's activity.

Protests in Serbia began in May after several mass shootings. The opposition believes that the atmosphere of hatred cultivated by state-controlled leading TV channels is the cause of these tragic incidents.

These protests continue to this day, and they have a negative impact on the Serbian government's ratings.

In this situation, holding snap elections without waiting for further deterioration in ratings seems reasonable.

Despite Vučić's statements, snap elections are not the key demand of the protesters. They understand that as long as the government maintains total control over the television, Vučić's victory is almost guaranteed.

Therefore, the opposition initially demanded to change the leadership of TV channels and only then to announce the new elections. However, Vučić decided to act in the opposite way, tactically outmaneuvering the opposition.

It is pretty certain that the new elections are unlikely to strengthen Vučić's presence in parliament. It is almost certain that he will not regain the majority.

However, this time, the Serbian opposition has the greatest chance to win the parliamentary elections in the last decade.

To prevent the opposition from winning local elections in Belgrade, Vučić was forced to take a step he had carefully avoided. It is known that in the elections in Belgrade and several other municipalities, the SPP will run together with the Serbian Radical Party led by Vojislav Šešelj.

Vučić used to be a member of Šešelj's party and even served as its vice president. However, he understood that this party was too toxic since it is associated with the convicted war criminal and will always be negatively perceived in the West. That's why Vučić left this political force and founded the SPP.

Even though the SRP and the SPP will run separately in the parliamentary elections, the alliance in the local elections indicates Vučić's uncertainty about victory and the risk that pro-Russian and anti-Western radicals will begin to influence central government.

Vučić has carefully avoided such a scenarios, as it would put an end to his policy of balancing between the West and Russia.

Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Aleksandar Vučić has pursued a very simple policy – to delay, without spoiling relations with either the EU and the US or Russia.

However, the further Serbia goes, the harder it becomes for the country to follow this course.